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Aviation History
1986
1986 - 0291.PDF
WORLD NEWS US space programme to go ahead WASHINGTON D.C. President Reagan has pledged that the US space programme will continue, and that manned spaceflights will resume, but the full impli cations of the Shuttle disaster have yet to be realised. In the short term, Nasa faces an indefinite hold on Shuttle operations and the probability that scheduled missions to observe Halley's comet, launch space probes, and deploy the Space Tele scope will be postponed or even cancelled. If a serious inherent design fault is found, the programme could face a long and serious delay. In the long term, the loss of one of only four flightworthy Orbiters places Nasa's already tight Shuttle planning under increasing pressure, at least until a replacement Orbiter can be built. This could impact both Nasa's Space t Station and the Pentagon's Strategic Defence Initiative, both of which are heavily „ dependant on Shuttle. Conceivably the loss of Challenger could mark a •reversal of the declining fortunes of US expendable launch vehicles (ELVs). v There is a possibility that Shuttle insurance rates will increase markedly, more in line with expendable vehicles such as Ariane, affecting an t already hard-hit commercial satellite industry. Nasa had planned 15 Shut- t tie missions for 1986, five using Challenger. The March mission to observe Halley's comet has almost certainly been abandoned. Europe's Ulysses solar polar space probe faces certain delay. Challenger was to have carried Ulysses and its Centaur G- prime upper stage from pad 39B on May 15. Challenger was one of only two Orbiters modified to carry the Centaur cryogenic upper stage. The other, Atlantis, was to carry the Galileo Jupiter probe from pad 39A on May 20. Both had to be launched during a Jupiter alignment window lasting only three weeks. The next Jupiter launch opportunity is June 1987. Nasa will therefore face a choice: to take an Orbiter out of service for Centaur modification so that both missions can be launched in June 1987; or to choose between Ulysses and Galileo for a single shot using Atlan tis, delaying the other until the next available launch window. It will be a difficult choice, as both missions have already been repeatedly delayed. Nasa had planned to launch five commercial commu nications satellites during the remainder of 1986; Western Union's Westar 6S, Indonesia's Palapa B3, India's Insat 1C, GTE's Gstar 3, and Hughes Communications' Leasat 5. All but the widebody Leasat could be offered launches on alternative expendable launch vehicles, but Nasa has only five Deltas and three Atlas-Centaurs left, and these are earmarked for launches—six of them for the US military. A key spacecraft that was scheduled for launch in June is Britain's Skynet 4A military communications satellite. The UK is currently relying on the 11-year-old Skynet 2B, and on capacity leased on other craft, for its strategic communications links. Modification of Skynet 4A and 4B, to be launched by Shuttle in January 1987, for Ariane launch is possible but time-consuming and expensive. Meanwhile Brit ain's first Skynet payload specialist has flown to the USA for Shuttle training as planned. A double question mark hangs over the scheduled deployment of Nasa's Hubble Space Telescope in Novem ber. To be used effectively the telescope requires at least two TDRS tracking and data relay satellites to be operational, providing line of sight coverage to a single ground station over 80 per cent of the craft's orbit. TDRS 1 is in orbit, albeit with reduced life expectancy. TDRS B was destroyed with Challenger. TDRS C was to have been carried by Chal lenger in July, and will almost certainly be delayed. It remains to be seen whether Nasa delays deployment of the Space Telescope until a second TDRS is in orbit. Much has been made of the potential impact of the disas ter on military space programmes. In fact the Pentagon is better placed than most to continue oper ations despite Shuttle delays. The USAF has in its expendable launch vehicle inventory 14 Atlas Es and one Titan IIIB able to place satellites in polar orbit and seven Titan 34Ds able to place craft in geostationary orbit. In addition it has 56 Titan II and nine Thor ballistic missiles in storage that could be converted to launchers, given time and money. The Challenger loss will nevertheless cause problems. Four classified Shuttle missions were planned for 1986, including the first two from Vandenberg. One was to have involved Challenger itself. Three more all-military missions were planned for 1987. The long-term effect of losing an Orbiter is difficult to assess. Only at the end of 1985 did Nasa have all four flight- worthy Orbiters at its disposal, having managed until then often with only two operational. Elements of a fifth Orbiter are in storage, and Rockwell indicated before the accident that it could deliver a fifth Orbiter by 1992, at a cost of $2,000 million, given the go-ahead in 1986. An alternative is to refurbish the first Orbiter, Enterprise, now in a museum. Never intended to fly into space, Enterprise would require extensive and expensive refurbishment before it could be used. Either option would require funds Nasa does not have available within its tight budget. Addi tional funds, or a significant sacrifice, would be required to replace Challenger. FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL, 8 February 1986 3
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