FlightGlobal.com
Home
Premium
Archive
Video
Images
Forum
Atlas
Blogs
Jobs
Shop
RSS
Email Newsletters
You are in:
Home
Aviation History
1986
1986 - 0695.PDF
WORLD AIRLINE DIRECTORY Annual changes in scheduled passenger-kilometres 20- 10- 1 Icao world I 1 Europe (mo. USSR) Source: Icao Digests Tridents, one of which is seen here at Guilin, still form the backbone of the CAAC domestic fleet, but 737s and MD-80s will soon be taking over Recent growth rates in scheduled passenger-kilometres show North America leading the airlines of the world out of recession cutting. Strong pressure in Europe for more liberal regulation is resulting in yield reductions. The Middle East is facing problems caused by falling oil revenues and a weakening of business traffic. On routes linking Europe with Asia and Australia, the actions of the non-Iata Asian carriers continue to make life diffi cult for the Europeans and Australians. The future of the African and South American carriers depends on a successful resolution of the problems of developing country debts. For the purposes of collecting data, Icao divides the world into six regions. These regions correspond to the areas in the accompanying index, with Central and South America forming the Icao region "Latin America" and Asia, Australasia, and the South Pacific forming the Icao region "Asia-Pacific." The accompanying graph shows that the airlines based in each of the regions (the traffic is that of airlines based in these regions, and not the traffic flown within the region) have fared very differ ently over recent years. Furthermore, each is at a different stage in the present economic cycle. North America, which now accounts for about 40 per cent of the world scheduled passenger-kilometres, returned growth rates close to zero in 1975 and 1980, and saw a 2 • 7 per cent fall in 1981. Because of its large relative size, it has been the upswing in the USA which has been influ encing the world total, which shows a marked recovery since its low point in 1982. European airlines, accounting for 33 per cent of world traffic, passed through the trough of the recent recession in 1982. What is something of a worry is that 1985 growth was slightly below the 1984 high of 5 per cent, but the scheduled airlines in the region are used to fairly unspectacular rates of growth. The Middle East group are having to cope with a switchback in growth rates varying from just over 39 per cent in 1976, when oil revenues were flooding in and new construction activity was getting under way, to a modest 2 per cent in both 1980 and 1985. The region, which accounts for 3 per cent of output, is currently suffering from a sharp cut in oil revenues and the debilitating effect of the Gulf War. Asia-Pacific depends on the export orientated economies of nations such as Japan, Singapore, and Korea, and on the flows of traffic from Europe to Australia and New Zealand. With 16 per cent of world activity, it has maintained positive, but erratic, growth rates in recent years. Prospects very much depend on continuing free access to the US market. The poor performance of Africa in 1985 is generally ascribed to a sudden drop in traffic to South Africa as a direct result of political uncertainty. While African traf fic also depends on the continent recov ering from the problems of debt and famine, it is so small in overall terms, with a 2 • 8 per cent share of the total, that it has very little influence on the overall result. Latin America suffered three very poor years in a row between 1981 and 1983 but, helped by the recovery in the USA in 1984 and 1985, shows signs of a return to better times. Like Africa and the Middle East, Latin America's share of the world total (5 per cent) remains small. To sum up, this edition of the Flight Directory appears at a time when the airlines and their suppliers are taking stock of their positions. Will 1985 be seen as the high point of a short-lived upswing, as was the case in 1978 and 1979? Or will it prove to be the first in a series of years of modest but healthy 8-9 per cent growth? Almost everyone now discounts the possibility that 1985 will be followed by an upswing bringing overall, industry wide growth rates of over 10 per cent per year. The replies to Flight's questionnaire to the airlines, asking for up-to-date infor mation, suggests that the steady 8-9 per cent scenario is definitely the most likely. * FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL, 29 March 1986 35
Sign up to
Flight Digital Magazine
Flight Print Magazine
Airline Business Magazine
E-newsletters
RSS
Events
