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Aviation History
1987
1987 - 2006.PDF
Major trends in civil aviation are epitomised by the successful evaluation of the UDF on a McDonnell Douglas MD-80, right; the rapid expansion of express ••^ r~fr-Ti - ' • —; I Commercial aircraft It is a measure of the buoyancy of the market for commercial jet transports that this edition of Flight's annual survey has to record that, for the first time in a decade, the larger aerospace manufacturers are having to face the problems created by sustained levels of high demand. Airbus and Boeing in particular are consid ering whether they should gear up for unprece dented production rates, or whether the present boom in orders, which began in 1985, is purely transitory. McDonnell Douglas has seen a reduction in the rate of ordering for the MD- 80 series, it is true, but is working hard to meet its already busy production schedule, which has slipped because of labour disputes. It is also occupied building up the momentum on the recently launched MD-11. British Aerospace is setting up a second production line to meet existing and antici pated orders for the BAel46, and has been able to use this to offset, to an extent, disappointing sales of the advanced turboprop (ATP). Fokker has a large backlog of orders for the Fokker 100 and is striving to speed up deliveries, delayed by the challenge of developing two new models (F100 and F50) simultaneously. Although there are some signs that the manufacturers have been able to edge prices upwards as a response to strong demand, it is an interesting comment on the competitive instincts of the suppliers that they have been unable to resist the temptation to discount when large orders have been in prospect. The operating lease deals for the 767-300ER and A300-600R arranged by Boeing and Airbus for By Andy Hofton FLIGHT DATA American Airlines (in March) and the Boeing investment in United (in May), were recent examples of the power of large customers. Nevertheless, given the prospect of continu ing high demand for all of the popular jet trans ports, it seems likely that prices will harden. This will be much to the relief of the Euro peans, who, despite US accusations of having non-financial objectives, are under severe pres sure because of the parity of the much devalued US dollar. A number of marketing and technological reasons, and reasons associated with the pros pects for oil prices, lay behind Boeing's important decision, announced in August, to delay the launch of its proposed unducted-fan- powered 7J7, but bulging orderbooks for the 737 and an upswing in orders for the 757 obvi ously helped to make a 15-month slippage seem sensible from the viewpoint of Seattle. The earliest in-service date for the advanced design is now mid-1993. Although most observers see the 7J7 in terms of its advanced technology, and recognise that modest fuel prices make expensive all-new aircraft very difficult to justify, there is another aspect of the programme which must not be overlooked. Presentations at the Paris Show, and the first public appearance of the fuselage mockup, confirmed that Boeing's designers have been prepared to trade some of the 7J7's exceptional fuel efficiency for additional passenger comfort. This is therefore something of a watershed in commercial aircraft design. It is relevant that in recent years both Boeing and British Aerospace have redesigned the interiors of their single-aisle aircraft to give them more width, that the yet-to-fly MD-11 and 747-400 have greatly revised passenger amenities, and that the A320 sets new stan dards for standard-bodies. Nevertheless, the 7J7 proposes to take this idea much further with its six-abreast, twin-aisle concept. The realisation that the future battle for airliner orders will have to be fought on issues other than just aircraft operatingcosts is very important, not least from the airline passengers' point of view. As noted above, modest fuel prices have been a feature of the 1986-87 year, and even an esca lation of the smouldering Iran/Iraq war has not threatened an upward push in the price to the point where all-new technology would become imperative. Capacity increases to meet traffic growth have brought orders for new fuel- efficient types, but fuel prices of over one US dollar per US gallon, rather than the 50 cents of the moment, are needed to render older- generation types, like the 727, prematurely obsolete. It is generally believed that prices of about $1-50 per gal are needed to make an all-new propfan/UDF design overwhelmingly attractive. 36 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL, 10 October 1987
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