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Aviation History
1987
1987 - 2007.PDF
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT OF THE WORLD parcels services, for which TNT is acquiring dozens of BAe 146s, centre; and the acquisition of big twins to supplement and replace medium-range widebody trijets of the world This is not to say that the recent modest increases in fuel prices have not threatened, if not entirely eroded, airlines' fragile profit margins. The point being made is that, under present circumstances, it is difficult to justify roll-over replacements unless the new models offer particular range, payload, or noise advan tages. Even without this incentive, better airline financial results, higher business confi dence, and a shortage of used aircraft—when considered with the traffic growth mentioned above—have combined to create the high' level of demand for the complete spectrum of jet airliners. Noise legislation is a subject which has been exercising the minds of fleet planners—and those banking on the residual values of existing aircraft—during the past year. The FAA, the US Department of Transportation, the EEC, and the ECAC are among the bodies which have considered the question of possible rules to limit the production, acquisition, and oper ation of so-called Stage 2/Chapter 2 aircraft (that is those aircraft certificated to the noise rules of FAR Part 36 Stage 2 or Icao Annex 16, Chapter 2). No definitive proposals have emerged, but the prospects of new noise legis lation, which could force the early retirement of some 5,000 Stage 2/Chapter 2 aircraft, has caused uncertainty. Such rules could affect the 727, DC-9, 737-200, One-Eleven, F.28, and hush-kitted 707 and DC-8, although widebodied types could comply with only minor modification or straightforward recertification programmes. They are among the reasons why Valsan is pressing ahead with the re-engined 727, why there are proposals to re-engine the DC-9, One- Eleven, and F.28 with the Rolls-Royce Tay, and why the 737-200 may end its record- breaking production run. There are so many 737-200s in airline service that the imposition of an early operating ban would almost certainly result in a re-engining programme based on the Pratt & Whitney JT8D-400. Nevertheless, any ban which seri ously curtailed the operating lives of such types would undermine the values of existing fleets, and bring an unprecedented wave of new orders for the commercial aircraft manufacturers to be superimposed on the present high workload. Strong traffic growth and prospects for continued expansion are among the reasons why McDonnell Douglas launched the MD-11 last November and the Airbus Board gaye its approval to the A330/A340 at the Paris Show in June. Other reasons were the package of new technology which had become available for use on these aircraft, and the fact that initial model 747s, DC-lOs, and TriStars are likely to be retired in the early 1990s. Another significant go-ahead during the year was for the short-bodied 737-500, an aircraft in the class of the MD-87 which also causes prob lems for the Fokker 100 and BAel46. The1* BAel46 itself made considerable progress, not least from the launch order for a single 200QT from TNT-IPEC in December, through to the deal announced in June this year, covering up to 72 Quiet Traders. With the A330/A340 and MD-11 now launched, and the 7J7 postponed, the next project being prepared for take-off is the proposed propfan derivative(s) of the MD-80. There is an outside possibility that this could be launched before the next Flight survey, but this is unlikely. Most observers also feel that McDonnell Douglas's proposal for an MD-11 twin is simply an exercise in sabre-rattling to impress Airbus, and that it is too early for the company to be thinking about radical new versions of the family. The 70-80-seat propfan airliner being discussed by Boeing, the Chinese, MBB, Fokker, and IPTN is also seen as being some way from being translated into a firm proposal. Despite negotiations between Airbus and MDC, begun before last year's Flight survey, it proved impossible to define what MDC described as a "win-win situation," in which both companies could maintain their sover eignty over the design of large-capacity wide- bodies. Whether MDC or Airbus shareholders will enjoy a financial "win-win" in the present circumstances is, however, another matter. Mainly as a result of full orderbooks, there have been continued contacts between the Europeans and the US companies about joint manufacturing. The upswing in the commercial airliner business corresponds to a reduction in US military procurement. Lockheed-Georgia and Rockwell are the leading companies discussing participation in the Airbus programmes, most likely the A330/A340, while it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that MDC could co-operate on Airbus's next project, a stretched A320. These contacts have to be seen against a FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL, 10 October 1987 s;
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