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Aviation History
1988
1988 - 0072.PDF
The rise of the reticent As Japan is forced to defend its homeland at arm's length over the sea, Peter Middleton reports from Tokyo on the nation's continuing struggle to reconcile its military taboos with US pressure to bear a defence burden commen surate with its economic power and trade surplus. When the celestial Shinto deities crossed the floating bridge of heaven, and plunged a jewelled spear into the ocean of chaos, the waters began to gel. Then a drop of brine fell from the spear and hardened into a crust of islands. It is no accident that a weapon should be associated with the mythical birth of Japan; the country's history is dominated by military tradition. Events of the 1940s, however, have left its population with an ambivalent attitude toward their armed forces, despite the potential threat from the nearby Soviet Union, whose Asian- Pacific nationhood has been stressed by Mikhail Gorbachev, and whose people have long and bitter memories. The incident last month, in which Japanese interceptors fired warning shots near a Soviet Badger discovered in Japanese airspace near Okinawa, empha sised the new-found determination on both sides to test each other's nerve. It was the 20th Soviet violation of Japanese airspace during 1987. The long-running debate within Japan on its military expenditure has been intensified by the current defence build up plan, which extends from 1986 to 1990. For the first time the plan has broken the arbitrary 1-per-cent-of-GNP barrier established by the Takeo Miki cabinet in 1976, and this has rekindled unease about both power and pacifism. The Gods provided Japan with a paucity of arable land, and virtually no energy resources and raw materials. The Based, in part, on source material contained in Japan's Defence Debate, Foreign Press Centre, Tokyo. nation's recent economic success is not just remarkable; it is remarkably vulner able. Japan, more than any other nation, depends upon sea lanes for surival, yet it is almost uniquely reluctant to project military power beyond its borders. This is no longer simply a function of restrictions imposed by the post-war constitution, and a price that had to be paid for rehabilitation into the, inter national community. There is still wide spread repudiation of any military activity beyond homeland defence, despite exhortations by the United States, which now regards the "Western" world's second most powerful economy as shirking responsibility for collective defence, even though this is specifically excluded by the Japanese constitution—which the USA formulated. Japan currently spends about half as much as Britain on defence, despite having double the gross national product. A 1984 Asahi Shimbun poll revealed that, despite the major build-up of Soviet east-Asian power, which causes more Japanese to be worried about the danger of attack than those who are not, only 14 per cent of the population favoured significant expansion of the defence budget, which is proportionately the smallest among the major economic powers. Other statistics, however, suggest that more than 80 per cent of people now recog nise the necessity for defence forces, and 58 per cent believe those forces to have fulfilled a role in the maintenance of peace for Japan. Some 20 years ago more than half the population saw no need for defence forces, so opinions are changing, albeit slowly. is Some 70 per cent still prefer mainte nance of the status quo, however, relying on US deterrence and global power while restricting Japan's military role exclu sively to defence. Any moves to change the definition of defence or to amend the constitution would be extremely hot polit ical potatoes. Japan's refusal to become involved in the protection of its shipping in the Gulf is not simply spinelessness, but reflects a determination to avoid a consti tutional crisis and a backlash from neigh bouring countries which have not always been able to count Japan as a friend. While the breaching of the 1-per-cent- of-GNP expenditure barrier (if only by 0-004 points) has stirred emotions, the limit is not enshrined in the constitution, and proponents of increases are able to argue the illogicality of setting limits inde pendently of threat analysis. With average annual defence expansion planned for 5 • 4 per cent to 1990, and the economy now stabilising below 4 per cent growth, according to the Japan Defence Agency, proportionate defence spending is bound to rise, although rapid acceleration is both unlikely and unconstitutional. No plans have been formulated beyond 1990. Japan and the Soviet Union are near neighbours (only about 40km apart at one point), and Japan's geographic location has immense strategic importance, controlling sea routes from Vladivostok to the Pacific. With the build-up of Soviet naval power (Soviet submarine-launched ballistic missiles can now hit the United States from beneath the Sea of Okhotsk), Japan's position has never had greater significance in US-Soviet relations and FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL, 16 January 1988
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