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Aviation History
1988
1988 - 2423.PDF
7 •>•>••' 'M*i$Bmi Fighter marketplace The pair of MiG-29s at Farnborough this year demonstrate the Soviet Union's policy of glasnost and General Secretary Gorbachev's thrust towards a more open relationship— including trade—with the West. Previously, Soviet military aircraft have been operated only by the Soviet Union and its allies, with few exceptions. That appears to be changing, and heralds a large and potent, but as yet inexperienced, player on the international sales pitch when Western manufacturers are sore pressed to sell their wares. At first glance there appears to be a paucity of buyers and a glut of sellers, but is that really the case? It depends on who you ask. Some companies, or even national indus tries, are quite definitely in the doldrums when it comes to sales. Others are experi encing a boom. Why? Each generation of combat aircraft is more capable than the preceding one, and this extra capability costs more. More money per fighter means that the end user will not be able to afford as many aircraft the next time round, so they must again be more capable, again at higher cost. Budget planners are only too aware of this vicious circle. This means that smaller nations must evolve joint requirements in order to make a cost-effective purchase of a battle-effective As the Soviet Union's MiG bureau prepares to sell in the West, Mike Gaines takes a look at the shrinking fighter marketplace and its future. aircraft in sufficient numbers. A prime example is the Panavia Tornado, built jointly by the United Kingdom, West Germany, and Italy. Another example is the European Fighter Aircraft, but here, just one genera tion later, four nations (originally five) are needed to provide the initial financial back ing for 810 aircraft, whereas three nations could afford to get the original 809-aircraft Tornado programme under way. Further more, sales to third parties are no longer the icing on the cake. They are essential to main tain production lines and to give rival compa nies and teams a hard time. Admittedly this is a somewhat simplistic view, but it proves the point. Dennis Kloske, the Pentagon's Under secretary for Planning and Resources, believes that the military aerospace industry Saudi Arabia's Al Yamamah project has generated the largest BAe sales to date, including Panavia Tornadoes, Hawks, and Pilatus PC-9s will have to think more in terms of inter national collaboration whether industries on both sides of the Atlantic like it or not. He predicts a glut of combat aircraft on the market by 2000, and believes that those companies which attempt to go it alone will go under, because they will not be able to compete effectively with the sheer power of the teams. At present the US combat aircraft manu facturers are heavily engaged in chasing two "golden" programmes; the US Air Force's Advanced Tactical Fighter (ATF) and the US Navy's Advanced Tactical Aircraft (ATA). There is little doubt that, even in the numbers that the US Forces will purchase ATF/ATA, these aircraft will set a new level in expense. It is little wonder then, that the US manufacturers are trying to hedge against the shrinking future market by trying to seduce first the EFA consortium, and now European F-16 operators, into buying the Hornet 2000 and Agile Falcon respectively, and then joining the ATF programme later as licensed builders. A similar effort continues in France, with McDonnell Douglas lobbying strongly against Dassault to provide the F-18 Hornet to the French Navy, instead of the naval variant of Rafale. Dassault has suffered from a comparative FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL, 3 September 1988 111
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