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Aviation History
1989
1989 - 0773.PDF
Awaiting the recovery Although there are several encouraging signs of an upturn in the light-aircraft market, neither Beech nor Cessna is ready to predict a firm recovery, as John Bailey reports from Wichita. Beech produced some 180 Bonanzas in 1988, including the "upmarket" A36 model Ever since Cessna shut down produc tion of its piston-engined light trainers in 1986, industry seers have been searching for signs of a recovery in the general-aviation market. The demise of the piston singles which made Cessna famous was especially poignant, symbolising the end of an era, if not the terminal decline of an entire industry. From a peak of nearly 4,000 Cessna 152s and 172s built in 1978, production slumped to just 329 in 1985, before the company decided to shut down the assembly lines. Although Cessna has since returned to financial health with its successful Citation business jet and the Caravan utility turpoprop, it retains a strong emotional attachment to piston singles, and there have been growing rumours of an imminent return to production. First, Cessna has to be convinced that a market exists for up to 1,500 piston aircraft a year for at least three to five years. "Emotionally," Cessna says, "it would be an easy decision to make, because all of us would like to get back into the business. It is such an integral part of our heritage. Emotionally, we could make the decision tomorrow, but it has to be a sound business decision. The numbers have to be right". Cessna is reviewing the state of the market, and will announce a decision on whether to resume production in the Spring. If an immediate start-up is authorised, the first aircraft would roll off the assembly lines at the end of next year, although the company may well defer the decision for another year. On the other side of Wichita, Beech reports continuing sales of piston singles and twins, the Bonanzas and Barons. Last year the company produced 220 piston-engined aircraft, 36 of them twin-engined Baron 58s and the remainder Bonanzas. The latter are currently available in three models, the F33A, A36, and turbocharged B36TC. This year, production of the lower-priced F33A will be stepped up from 100 to 125, but Blair Sullivan, marketing manager for Beech's King Air and piston products, says it will largely be at the expense of the more up-market Model 36s. "It's basically a shift of units. The mix changes as the market changes, although we will be marginally up in Plant 2 [home of the Bonanza and Baron production lines]," he says. According to Sullivan, Beech was able to maintain sales of its piston aircraft because the high price tag and the high-performance appeal traditionally associated with Beech products has ensured a different type of customer. "More than 50 per cent of our piston aeroplanes are sold under the corporate letterhead, and for the Model 36s that goes up to perhaps 80 or 90 per cent. Our customer is not as volatile as the Cessna customer is," he says. Sullivan adds: "I think our advertising for the Bonanza is right when it says: 'This is the aeroplane you promised yourself when you got your instrument rating'. I bet if you asked 100 pilots which piston-powered aeroplane they would buy if they had the money, 80 of them would say the Bonanza. We don't attract novice sport flyers or the inex perienced pilot." The cheapest aircraft offered by Beech is the 285 h.p. F33A Bonanza, which retails at around $150,000, about $80,000 less than the A36 and $114,000 less than the turbo- charged B36TC. "Our typical customer goes right up the scale," says Sullivan. "He starts with a Bonanza, then goes to a Baron, and maybe ends up in a King Air. That's not typical in light aviation, so we have to do more to get people into our products." "In January," he adds, "53 per cent of this year's F33s already had names on them. People everywhere are trying to get 33s, although we are trying to convert them to 36s." The recent expansion in airline ab initio training courses is also helping Beech, with orders for F33As or A36s placed by Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, and Finnair. Sullivan says: "If you look at ab initio training around the world, you will find Beech prod ucts where airlines are in a good financial state. Typically, in the United States, you won't find our aeroplanes. There is a lot of European airline use of our products. "We always stress that we have quality products that they will be using for a long time. Lufthansa has been using us since 1968. Typically, they will put about 5,000hr on an aeroplane, then strip it down and do some reworking of the flap tracks and so on, and then they use them again before putting them out to retail. We have been spending a long time trying to cultivate ab initio custom ers over the last two years, and we have a lot of Spending ab initio contracts. We could be outof retail aeroplanes very early in the year. We are already out of Beechjets, although that is a much different situation." The market for good-quality used aircraft is also buoyant, Sullivan says. "The one thing FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL, 25 March 1989 43
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