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Aviation History
1990
1990 - 0100.PDF
COMMERCIAL FLIGHT SAFETY THE COMPLACENT YEAR-SAFETY 1989 David Learmount examines I989's airline accident record for clues as to why safety improvement seems to have stopped. M ore than 2,000 people died on airliners in 1985, the decade's worst year; but 1989 came close, with nearly 1,800 fatalities. A statistician could provide annual rates to make 1989's absolute results look less bad; he could not, however, make the 1980s look like a decade of consistently improving safety. The past year's showing — 1,764 deaths and 55 accidents — emphasises that fact. Deduct ing those fatal events which involved sabo tage or other unlawful interference, the number of fatalities last year was 1,450 in 51 accidents, which compares with a decade annual average of 1,056 deaths in 37 accidents. Aircrew error was responsible for more than 60% of all fatal airline accidents last year, and for more than 1,000 deaths. That this is not an unusual proportion has worried the airlines, which are now studying the "human factors" aspects of safety closely. The airline theory is simple: human error causes most serious accidents, so it is the most fertile area for safety improvement. This was the theme of airline representatives at 1989's Flight Safety Foundation annual con vention in Athens. The problem can also be read as follows: aircraft reliability is high and improving, and all feasible measures to main tain it are being taken; therefore, if safety achievement is not improving, it is the human factor which is holding it back. "The more severe the consequences, the more predominant is the human factor," states the International Air Transport Associ ation's (IATA) annual world safety review. That statement has appeared in each IATA annual review from 1986 to 1988, and the assessment refers to accidents in categories ranging from "significant events" through "substantial damage" to "total loss" (the latter does not inevitably involve fatalities, but the aircraft is an insurance write-off). In accidents designated "significant events" or "substantial damage", the primary causes were normally technical or environmental, says IATA. Human factors, however, have always caused a high percentage of all "total loss" The Kegworth accident (8 January) inquiry is studying pilot/'cockpit interface accidents: the average for the three most recent fully assessed years (1986-8) was 66%—the Flight initial assessment for fatal accident causes last year (not including the unlawful interference categories). Aircrew error last year resulted unusually often in collision with high ground. Twice these events involved air traffic control (ATC) as well as pilot error. ATC fatal error is rare (in many years it is not recorded at all) and significantly neither of the latter errors occurred in high-intensity traffic. Manufacturing quality control and old aircraft had high public profile in 1988 and early last year: there is no definite evidence that either of these areas of safety concern caused a fatal accident in 1989. The cause of the 36-year-old Convair 580 crash (8 Sep tember), however, is still unknown. Flight divides "unlawful interference" into three sub-categories: sabotage, hijack and shootdown. Hijack developed in the 1970s and continued sporadically into the 1980s. Airline sabotage, however, has developed seriously only during the second half of the 1980s. Since 1985 there has been an average of two fatal sabotage events a year, and civil airliners have been shot down or hijacked with similar regularity. Sabotage tends to be the big killer: last year 278 people died in two events. Deciding the appropriate level of airport and airline securi ty to apply has proved a major problem. Last year's two sabotage events suggest that no location can be considered remote enough to Fatal accident causes Aircrew error ATC error Weather Engine failure/fire Mechanical/systems failure Structural failure Hit high ground Sabotage Hijack Shoofdown No of No of accidents fatalities 34 1,132 2 148 7 346 6 212 - 3 23 2 64 15 582 2 278 1 6 1 30 Note: Some accidents fall into more than one category The causes as assessed at this stage are principal apparent causes or major factors n the event, and may be subject to revision following full inquiry. The causes of several events are completely unknown so far. Fatal accidents 1989 Scheduled passenger services Non-scheduled passenger services Regionai/commuter services Non-passenger services Fatal events involving sabotage, hijack or military action against civilian targets Total jets (trie! sabotage efc) Total jets exci sabotage etc) Total prop-driven (incl sabotage etc) Total prop-driven (exel sabotage etc) Total accidents excluding sabotage etc Total accidents all categories No Of No of accidents fatalities 12 7 20 12 4 20 18 35 33 51 55 664 418 321 47 314 1,226 948 538 502 1,450 1,764 42 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 17-23 January 1990
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