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Aviation History
1990
1990 - 1801.PDF
FLIGHT NAVAL AVIATION ANALYSED ^^ ,; FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL Quadran! House, The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey SM25AS, England FUGHT TELEPHONE NUMBERS II dialling from outside the United Kingdom prefix numbers with +4481. For example 081-661 3321 becomes +44816613321. EDITORIAL ENQUIRIES: 081-661 3321 EDITORIAL FAX: 081-661 3840 DISPLAY ADVERTISING: 081-6613315 DISPLAY ADV. FAX: 081-661 8981 CLASSIFIED ADVERTISING: 081-661 6373 CLASSIFIED ADV. FAX: 081-642 4431 TELEX: 892084 REEDBPG EDITOR Allan Winn 081-661 3882 DEPUTY EDITOR Graham Warwick 081 -661 8808 ASSISTANT EDITOR ART AND PRODUCTION Forties Mulch 081-661 3852 ASSISTANT EDITOR, SPECIAL PROJECTS Tom Hamill 081-661 3096 NEWS EDITOR Andre* Chuter 081 -661 3843 OPERATIONS EDITOR Mike Gaines 081-661 8809 TECHNICAL EDITOR Guy Nocris 081 -661 3835 AIR TRANSPORT EDITOR David Learmount 081-661 3845 REPORTERS Eric Beech 081-661 3837 Andre* Cadogan 081-6613844 Simon Elliott 081-661 3838 Ian Goold081-6613834 Alan Postlelhwaite 081-661 3839 CHIEF SUB EDITOR Stephen Spark 081 -661 3847 SUB EDITOR Annabel Goddard 081 -661 3848 ART EDITOR Colin Paine 081-661 3850 LAYOUT ARTIST Mike Wells 081-661 3828 TECHNICAL ARTISTS Ira Epton 081 -661 8054 Tim Hall 081-661 8047 John Matsden 081-661 8054 EUROPEAN EDITOR Julian Moxon, Jan Lindlslraat 4,1990 Hoeilaart, Belgium (32)26579689 WASHINGTON BUREAU Kieran Daly (202) 547-2624 FAX (202) 547-5338 LOS ANGELES BUREAU John Bailey (714) 760-6618 FAX (714) 760-6619 PARIS CORRESPONDENT Gilbert Sedbon (1) 4825 5261 ISRAEL CORRESPONDENT Arie Egozi (3) 9671155 US WEST COAST CORRESPONDENT Norman Lynn (408) 778-0889 FAX (408) 778-9976 SPACEFLIGHT CORRESPONDENT Tim Furniss 02375 756 FAX 02375 600 DISPLAY ADVERTISEMENT SALES MANAGER Clive Richardson 081-661 3315 VICE-PRESIDENT US SALES John Tidy (714) 756-1057 CLASSIFIED ADVERTISEMENT SALES 081-66'6373 RECRUITMENT 081-661 6373 ADVERTISEMENT PRODUCTION Howard Mason 081 -661 3267 PUBLISHER Gavin Howe For full advertisement sales information see page 56 SUBSCRIPTIONS MANAGER A Walden (0444) 441212 SUBSCRIPTION ENQUIRIES Oaklield House, Perrymount Road, Haywards Heath, West Sussex RH16 3DH, England. BACK NUMBERS Limited numbers ol RECENT ISSUES ONLY are available at E1.75/copy (CASH WITH ORDER ONLY) irom Flight International, Room L531, Quadrant House, The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey SM2 5AS. USA NEWSSTAND SALES ENQUIRIES Worldwide Media Service Inc. (toll-free), 1-800-345-6478 IS?] Member of HM Audit Bureau of Circulation COMMENT Paradoxical panacea "To European eyes, the capacity-strapped American industry must look like the rainbow's pot of gold. Alas, it is not." In cancelling the orders for the last 33 Tor nado strike and air-defence aircraft it was due to receive, Britain has done more than merely hasten the run-down of a particular military programme. It has confirmed the suspi cion that in Europe as much as anywhere else in the world, a confirmed military order is now no guarantee of future work. To be bidding on a major new military programme like EFA is no more of a sinecure than it is. for an American to be bid ding on an ATF. In military, matters there are always winners and losers; in this game there will be more of the latter than of the former. To have a fac tory full to capac ity on a civil pro gramme like Air bus is the nearest thing to security at the moment; but to be seeking to fill a factory with such work is not. Even in a world with major civil pro grammes running late and with order-books stretching to unprece dented levels, there are too few orders for too many aerospace companies. To many military manufacturers, the Western equivalent of the Soviets' swords-into-plough- shares Konversyia must seem an irresistable pana cea. Most of the Western civil aircraft manufac turers, such as Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, Air— bus, Fokker, ATR and the rest, are trying to increase production to match those unprecedented orders. Most are failing to meet target dates and promised production levels, and could well do with extra production capacity. To European eyes, especially, the capacity- strapped American industry must look like the proverbial rainbow's pot of gold. Alas, it is not. The USA has, for many years, been the West's biggest military producer, and is now sustaining the West's biggest military cuts. By definition, therefore, it has the biggest surplus capacity to offer the civil manufacturers. Companies like Lockheed have laid out their stalls already, and they have much to offer. Lockheed has the skills to build large aircraft in large numbers, as the C-5 and C-141 bear witness. Its Georgia plant could easily build the fuselage of Boeing's mooted 777, or of McDonnell Douglas' planned MD-12, just as it could have assembled Airbus A321s or Fokker 100s. It is not alone; from General Dynamics to Rockwell there is capacity available. Even some of those who seem short of civilian capacity have surplus military capacity - but in some cases may not be able to exploit even that. McDonnell Douglas is the prime example of this paradox — late with its MD-11, yet laying off workers and shrink ing capacity in an effort to cut a mas sive $700 million a year from its oper ating costs. So the companies most in need of the availa ble capacity might not be able to af ford it. Then, for those sub contract-hun gry Europeans in particular, they may just not be of the right political or financial hue. If Boe ing is to put out work on its 777, its financial first ten dency must be to give that work to its Japanese part ners who are putting up a share of the launch costs. Politically, it may be unwise of such a large American company to be seen to be placing work offshore when American workers are being laid off and famous, established plants being closed. Some European companies have proved that they can break into the civil sub-contract market in the USA —Aeritalia, Shorts and Westland are three shining examples — but there is not going to be a flood of such work. There will continue to be offset work placed in Europe by Americans, but there will be less of it as the Europeans buy less American military equipment. For British Aerospace's military division and its Panavia partners, searching for work to replace those lost Tornados, the USA may not provide easy pickings. Even for Americans it may not, if the big manufacturers cannot afford to buy the sub-contract services they offer. A company suchas McDonnell Douglas, trying to support the huge cash outflows of its fixed- price military programmes and the development costs of its MD-11, MD-12 and MD-90 airliners with little but the cash inflow of sales of the existing MD-80, cannot afford to be the cavalry riding to the rescue of erstwhile rivals. • FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 27 June - 3 July 1990
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