FlightGlobal.com
Home
Premium
Archive
Video
Images
Forum
Atlas
Blogs
Jobs
Shop
RSS
Email Newsletters
You are in:
Home
Aviation History
1990
1990 - 2622.PDF
force aircraft capacity in the sector to expand considerably beyond that required for the gradual replacement of these aircraft (264 TriStars and 386 DC-lOs were built). McDonnell Douglas is the only manufac turer offering a trijet in this replacement market and its DC-10-derived MD-11 will be the first of the contenders to begin earning money, entering airline service before the end of this year (about a year later than planned). Airbus has customers for its A330 twinjet and A340 four-jet and a fourth con tender, Boeing's 767-X twinjet, will be launched (as the 777) as soon as it wins key- airline orders. Airbus and Boeing have come to similar conclusions about the complete 1990-2005 widebody market size. Boeing predicts 3,816 aircraft, out of a total 9,935 jet airliner deliveries; Airbus has recently revised its 3,700-widebody estimate upwards to 4,000 aircraft, rising to 5,000 by 2009. At one end Average aeroplane size (Boeing estimate) 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 2005 demand will be met by 747s, at the other by A300s, A310s and 767s, and in the middle by the A330/340, 777 and MD-11. Boeing forecasts deliveries, from now to the year 2005, of 2,500 airliners with more than 350 seats, including the 747. Airbus is more precise in its breakdown of the "trijet replacement" market, the sector where its biggest profit potential lies. The European consortium's 20-year (1990-2009) forecast of 2,800 deliveries in the size band 300-500 seats includes 100 A300/A310/767s at the bottom of the market and 500 747s at the top. BIG BATTLEGROUND That leaves what Airbus describes as a "bat tleground" for the MD-11, 777 and A330/ A340, with the four types fighting over a forecasted 2,200 delivery slots. Airbus goes further, boldly forecasting that the A330/ A340 will emerge from the battle with 1,200 of those deliveries, the 777 with 550 and the MD-11 with 450. The "Big Twins"—A330 and 777—will take 64% of the 2,200, says Airbus, confident that its own design will account for 858 of the 1,408 deliveries. Factoring Airbus' 1990-2009 figures to align with Boeing's 1990-2005 forecast period gives a "battleground" of about 1,740 units, the Big Twins fighting over a forecast 1,114 delivery slots. Despite Airbus' graceful concession of 40% of the Big Twin market to Boeing, the US manufacturer appears disadvantaged because its contender has yet to be launched. The World commercial jet deiveries 1980-1989-360 per year/1990-2000 —570 per year (Boeing estimate) Forecast delivery market share by aeroplane size category Total market 1990-2005 Boeing estimate) 1990-1989; 409/year 2000 1990-2005:621/year 100 § 120-170 Total markel 1990-2005 European consortium has 121 firm orders for the A330 and 86 for the A340 four-jet, while MDC declares a total of 372 orders and "commitments" for the MD-11 trijet. That the 777 will be launched is not in doubt—the only question is when. Boeing has been working with eight airlines to define the biggest twinjet yet and these carriers have become the principal launch candidates. They are American, Delta and United Airlines in the USA (all 767 operators with large domestic trijet fleets), plus All Nippon, Brit ish Airways, Cathay Pacific, Japan Airlines and Qantas. Boeing was poised to launch the 777 in July with an order from United but problems with funding a union buy-out of the airline have delayed a decision until October at the earliest. This coincides with the decision timescales of other potential customers, making October the most likely month for a 777 decision. All the "battleground" contenders offer not just one type with modifications, but several variants. Most obvious is the A330/A340 pair, the latter being the specialist long-range variant of the former, but Airbus offers size and range variants of each. Boeing expects to offer two 777 variants initially with the later possibility of a long-range development. Mc Donnell Douglas offers the "standard" MD- 11, a Combi and a freighter, but is testing market interest in a stretched MD-12X. The MD-11 was first on the market be cause, unlike the all-new A330/A340 and 777 (which, despite its 767-X project designator, has more in common with the 747 than Boeing's current big twin), it is a derivative. The aircraft flies about 13,900km (7,000nm) with 293 passengers (three-class layout) but no cargo. With 323 passengers the offered range reduces slightly to 12,800km. Maxi mum take-off weight is 273.3t. Range estimates may prove optimistic, however, as flight-test MD-lls are displaying higher-than-expected fuel burn with both General Electric (GE) and Pratt & Whitney The four-engined A340 joins the airlines in 1992 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 5-11 September 1990
Sign up to
Flight Digital Magazine
Flight Print Magazine
Airline Business Magazine
E-newsletters
RSS
Events
