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Aviation History
1990
1990 - 2856.PDF
FffRNBOROUGH REVIEW AFTER P-7: P-61 OR EUROPATROL BY JOHN BAILEY The US Navy's delay in an nouncing a replacement for its cancelled Lockheed P-7A maritime patrol aircraft is keep ing its European allies on ten terhooks, and could yet open the door for an indigenous solu tion to the continent's future anti-submarine warfare (ASW) patrol requirements. The British and the West Germans have been monitoring developments closely since the Navy decided to pull the plug on Lockheed's $600 million P-7 development contract in July, cancelling the aircraft which both countries wanted to re place their existing ASW fleets. The Germans had already signed a memorandum of un derstanding for 12 P-7s to fill their MPA-90 requirement, while the British need up to 28 aircraft to replace their Nimrod MR.2s. Although the RAF had made no formal commitment to the P-7, it was left with no viable alternative once a Nim rod mid-life update was cancelled. No replacement for the P-7 has yet been announced by the US Navy, but a high-level team visited London and Bonn three weeks ago to brief both minis tries of defence on the alterna tives now being considered. The option currently favoured in Washington is a "remanufac- tured" P-3C, upgraded to meet some of the P-7's increased range and payload targets. While this might prove the cheapest alternative for the US Navy, however, it is understood that neither the British nor the Germans will consider a re worked airframe. While the Americans vacil late, Dassault chairman Serge Dassault last week took advan tage of the hiatus to propose a co-operative venture between France and Britain, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Spain, which will all need to replace existing ASW patrol aircraft over the next 15-20 years. The "Europatrol" project would not necessarily be based on the Dassault Atlantique, he says, and could involve a ge neric ASW avionics suite in stalled in a "...platform or plat- 600 P-3s, and will close the production line next year if no further orders are received. West Germany had delayed its decision on a replacement for its Atlantic Mk.ls until the P-7 became available because it wanted a new airframe. The British, in turn, cancelled their Nimrod mid-life update pro gramme because of corrosion problems with the Nimrods, and have been looking for a "green" airframe in which to install the existing Nimrod mis sion avionics suite. A US industry source says: "The US Navy wants a co operative programme, and it's a perfect set-up, because there are three major allies which all have the same requirement at the Customers sought for cancelled P-7's forms". Dassault's enthusiasm indicates the size of the poten tial prize awaiting the developer of a viable next-generation ASW aircraft. Lockheed estimates a worldwide requirement for around 170 aircraft over the "The allies refusal to consider a reworked P-3 could be good news for Lockheed, which is proposing a rework of the P-7" next 20 years, based on replace ments for foreign-operated P-3s and new customers like the UK and West Germany. The com pany has so far built more than GE/Lycoming T407/GLCc38 same time. The UK, to date, is not interested in a co-operative programme. They want to buy an off-the-shelf system, so scarce defence Dollars are spent on procurement and not devel opment. The Germans want [in volvement] in both P-7 and the Update IV avionics, and have been approved to [provide] 10% of the development costs". The allies' refusal to consider the reworked P-3 could prove to be good news for Lockheed, which is proposing a re-work of the P-7 to eliminate some of the Navy's more stringent design- life criteria. A go-ahead next month would allow Lockheed to recoup some of the $300 million in write-offs it was forced to take on the P-7. The major risk for Lockheed is that the US Navy will over ride the objections of its Euro pean allies, and opt for the P-3C upgrade. The precise details of the upgrade package have not yet been decided, but could range from a simple re-engining with a derivative' of the Allison T56 turboprops, already in stalled on the P-3, to new en gines, wings, and cockpit. The programme would proba bly be opened up to competi tion, rather than being awarded to Lockheed automatically, and would involve removing exist ing P-3Cs from the inventory while the work was performed. A Lockheed source says: "Consider the critical require ments of the P-7: range, payload and reduced crew numbers. You can keep the range element by re-engining the aeroplane, but it's very difficult to increase the payload of the P-3 without sig nificant work on the fuselage, and you can't reduce the crew without putting in a new cock pit. These are both very expen sive options, and they require a lot of work." A Navy study in the early 1980s, which compared the cost of designing an all-new aircraft maritime patrol aircraft (the P- 7) against upgrading the exist ing P-3 fleet, concluded that an upgrade programme could cost 80-85% of the price of a new long-range patrol aircraft and, as the source points out: "We would have a less-capable air craft, compared to a new one, and an aircraft that didn't have the same structural fatigue life". Although the Navy has not discussed how it would meet the continuing requirements of its overseas allies, it is under stood that if the P-3 upgrade is pursued, the allies would be offered upgraded aircraft from the Navy's existing fleet of more than 250 P-3Cs, equipped with the Boeing Update IV mission avionics suite. A US industry source says: "How real is the upgrade programme if we are going to allow our allies to have our own aircraft? You can't keep doing that indefinitely." Whatever the Navy decides, the cancellation of the P-7 pro gramme will delay the introduc tion of the next-generation ASW aircraft for at least another two years. While this will be par tially offset by the 15-month delay with Boeing's Update IV mission avionics package, it has presented a golden opportunity for European industry. D FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 19-25 September 1990
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