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Aviation History
1992
1992 - 0290.PDF
HEADLINES Asia to provide latest opportunity for aircraft like the MD-11 MD-11 MDC predicts airliner sales of $943 billion One trillion dollars-worth of new airliners in 1990 values will be delivered over the next 20 years, according to McDon nell Douglas in its newly re leased outlook for commercial aircraft for 1991-2010. Although the projected num bers are split fairly evenly be tween widebody (48.2%) and narrowbody (51.8%) aircraft, al most 75% of the value lies with the 6,758 widebody aircraft. The 7,264 narrowbody aircraft are valued at $242 billion with the balance ($701 billion) ac counted for by sales of the bigger aircraft types. Other highlights of the out look suggest that North Ameri can airlines will absorb 40% of the world total deliveries, with Europe and Asia/Pacific around equal at 25% each. The Asian- Pacific market, however, is ex pected to take the largest number of widebody aircraft with 2,395 deliveries. North America, conversely, is expected to account for almost half the global total of narrowbody deliv eries with 3,465 aircraft. McDonnell Douglas' outlook assumes that real economic growth in the US is expected to be at an annual average rate of 2.6% from 1990 to 2000 and 2.1% between 2000 and 2010 to the end of the next decade. Western Europe is expected to see 2.6% average growth until the end of the decade. Between 2000 and 2010 this will slow to 2%. Eastern Europe will not show real growth until "after the end of the century". The Asian-Pacific area annual average real growth at 4.8% be tween 1990 and 2000 will slow to 4.4% for the next decade. Latin America will have 3.7% annual average growth rates ex pected for both decades. Against this background, pas senger traffic will grow fastest (9.8% for 1990-2000 and 8.8% for 2000-2010) for the Asian- Pacific carriers. The regions' air lines are predicted to fly just over two trillion revenue passen ger-kilometres (RPKs) or just over 31% of the world total. Carriers throughout the rest of the world can expect annual average RPK growth of between 5% and 6% for the next 20 years. The forecast also predicts that 4,736 jet airliners will be perma nently retired over the period with nearly 70% of this total being short-range aircraft. • Boeing reviews 7 investigates new BY GUY NORMS IN LOS ANGELES Boeing is to decide on the future of its 737 series of aircraft, including the possible development of a new twinjet family, later in 1992. The decision will hinge on the results of a survey being con ducted among selected 737 op erators around the world. Data will be analysed in June and July and will help Boeing to decide on whether to pursue one of three basic alternatives: a grad ual improvement of the 737 family, incorporating technologi cal changes introduced on the current production line; a radi cally re-worked "block change" 737, incorporating all the changes in one go (like the shift in production from earlier marques of the 747 to the -400); or development of a new nar- rowbodied family that can grow to encompass the 737 and 757 replacement market. Boeing regional director 737/ 757 marketing management Randolph Baseler says: "We are in the discovery period trying to understand what the market wants for the year 2000 and beyond. More and more it is durability and commonality. In mid-year we'll start looking at various technical solutions which could be incorporated in Lufthansa defers aircraft deliveries Lufthansa is to postpone de livery of 11 regional jet air craft — a mix of Boeing 737s and Airbus A320s — due for delivery in 1993, as part of a cost reduction exercise. The German national carrier is also grounding 14 aircraft — Douglas DC-lOs, Boeing 737- 200s and a Boeing 747 Combi. These aircraft were put on sale in 1991, along with seven that Lufthansa did manage to sell. The failure to sell the aircraft saw Lufthansa retain the aircraft in service. It has now decided, as part of the cost-cutting exercise, to ground them. Lufthansa says the moves are aimed at "better matching supply and demand". Lufthansa took delivery of 56 aircraft last year and planned to take 25 more. The German car rier confirmed it expected losses of around Dm400 million ($149 million) for last year. • the block-change aeroplane, or we could continually improve the product over time. "The study is not hardware- focused yet; we've not yet got to the point where we can call it the 737-X. But like the 767-X, which became the 777, we're marching down the same sort of path. Further down the path we will get to the point where a new aircraft might or might not be the way to go". The 777 forms a role model for the future 737 study, with Boeing asking the operators to help design the aircraft. Pre ferred characteristics emerging from the study include faster cruise speeds and single-point servicing. If Boeing opts for the block change, it is likely to be made in the 1996-8 timeframe. "We are also looking at mak ing it quieter for Stage 4 require ments with engines like the International Aero Engines V2500 and aerodynamic im provements," Baseler adds. The case for an all-new air craft is harder to justify, accord ing to Baseler, particularly on cost grounds. "The current 737 is priced so well and little air craft are so much more price sensitive, so we don't want to lose that," he says. Boeing has completed a pri vate development study on a new family of aircraft aimed at NEWS IN BRIEF SEXTANT VICTORY The French ministry of defence has selected a group led by Sextant Avionique and In- tertechnique to supply the inte grated helmet mounted sight and display to be used by pilots in Dassault Aviation's new Rafale fighter. The first prototype sys tem is scheduled to be deliverer in 1993. GEC Avionics of the UK were the losing contender. FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 12 - 18 February, 1992
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