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Aviation History
1992
1992 - 0934.PDF
computing systems. While Rediffusion elected to develop its own Motorola RISC-based computing sys tem, Thomson-CSF began offering Harris Night Hawk 4000-series computers, which use the Motorola 88000 RISC microproces sor. Night Hawk took just under a third of FFS computer orders in its first year in the market. Harris is now offering the Night Hawk 5000 series, based on the higher- performing 88110 RISC chip, and says customers can upgrade by changing boards. Encore, one-time leader of the commer cial flight simulation computer market, also introduced Motorola-based RISC products with the sale of an RSX to Reflectone for a BAe 146 simulator, and an Encore 91 to ASD for its Citation machine. In 1991, FlightSafety adopted Concurrent's RISC computer, which is based on the MIPS R3000 chip, for a Learjet 31 simulator sold to Singapore Airlines. While it is difficult to predict 1992 commercial flight-simulation sales, the long-term prognosis, like that for the air craft orders on which the industry depends, is good. The greatest uncertainly surrounds the likely mix of FFS and FTD sales. Two recent surveys give different views of the future while predicting growth in sales. The view 0"eft) of Atlanta Hartsfield Airport is on SP-X 550. This Air France 747- 400 has a Rediffusion SP-X 500/wide visual system. VISUAL SYSTEM SALES -1991 REDIFFUSION SIMULATION Air France All Nippon A/W American A/L Delta A/L DLT Domier Ethiopian A/L Federal Exp Linjetlyg Japan A/L Japan A/S Thai A/W Singapore A/L Swissair LINK-MILES Air China Philippine A/L Malaysia A/L A340 747-400 767-300 757-200 FokkeMOO MD-88* MD-90 L-1011* Canadair RJ Do328 767 A300-600 737-500 747-400 Saab 340 King Air 737-400 747-400 Learjet 31 A310 737-300 747-400 757/767 737-300 A330-300 737-300 MCDONNELLDOUGLAS Japan A/L RAirMaroc 747-300 MD-11 737-400 CAE ELECTRONICS KLM IVEX CAAC TOTAL MD-11 Y-7 * For simulator visual upgrades SPX500/W SPX550/W SPX550/W SPX200/W SPX200/W SPX550/WX3 SPX550/W SPX200 SPX550/W TBD/Wx2 SPX550/W SPX550/W SPX550/W SPX550/W SPX500/W SPX500/W SPX550/W SPX550/W SPX500/W SPX550/W - 23 Image500/A Image 500/A Image 500/A Image 600 Image 600PT/A Image 600PT/A - 6 Vital Vll/M Vital Vll/M Vital Vll/M - 3 MaxVue2000 — i VDS-2000 - 1 34 The reports disagree on the im pact of FTDs and the acceptance of the US advanced qualification programme (AQP), which allows airlines greater flexibility to tailor training programmes using new technology, including FTDs. The US National Training and Simulation Association (NTSA) "Training 2000" report sees a positive future for the simulation market. "By the year 2000, wide- bodied aircraft will dominate the airline market. Since widebody, long-range aircraft use more crews per aircraft, the need for simulator training will increase," the report says. Despite predicting an increased demand for simulation, the report forecasts that FFS deliveries will stay roughly steady at about 30 a year to the end of the decade. The NTSA expects the advent of FTDs and the AQP to shift more training from FFS to lower-cost devices. "There is a clear trend to task-oriented training aimed at unburdening the role of the full-flight simulator, thereby allowing it to be used for complete line-oriented flying exercises," says the NTSB. GROWING NEEDS While the NTSA expects this trend to create a need for increased FFS fidelity, it also forecasts that the growing need for simula tion will be met by greater use of FTDs — a projection more or less supported by the experience of 1991. The Atlanta-based consultancy, Air Inc, takes issue with the NTSA report on several points, not least its projection of steady full-flight simulator sales. Air Inc's own survey paints a much more positive picture, showing FFS sales rising steadily from around 30 to almost 50 a year by 2000. This forecast is based on historical air craft-to-simulator ratios and a pilot-demand model based on aircraft deliveries, and not orders as used by NTSA, says Air Inc president Kit Darby. The report finds air craft-to-simulator ratios are declining stead ily, meaning more simulators are being bought, and forecasts that demand for FFS will increase, rather than remain steady, despite the advent of FTDs. Whereas the NTSA report quotes aircraft- to-simulator ratios of 25-30:1 for narrow- bodies and 19-25:1 for widebodies, Darby says actual ratios range from over 40 aircraft per simulator for short-range airliners such as the BAe 146 to under ten aircraft per simulator for very-long-range aircraft such as the 747-400. Air Inc data suggest the average is about 25:1 for narrowbodies and 15:1 for widebodies. Darby sees ratios continuing to decrease towards levels ranging from 25:1 for short- range airliners to under 9:1 for very-long- range airliners in the year 2000. With the shift towards widebody aircraft noted in the NTSA report, simulator deliveries will have to reach 50 a year by the turn of the century to keep pace with forecast aircraft demand, he believes. "The introduction of a large number of very-long-range aircraft like the 747-400, MD-11/12 and A330/A340 in the next 15 years will cause a decrease in the world aircraft-to-simulator ratio because of their single-digit ratios," says Darby. "These very low ratios are the result of inefficient crew utilisation, which results from very long stage lengths." He notes the forecast that very-long-range aircraft will comprise more than 15% of the western European airliner fleet, and 25% of the Asia/Pacific fleet, by the year 2005. Air Inc accepts that FFS demand may be reduced by the large US airlines' adoption of AQP training programmes in the mid to late 1990s, but Darby believes the overall effects of AQP in the USA will be "minimal" before the year 2000. "It appears that only a few of the newest fleets of aircraft at the largest airlines will be affected in the USA before the late 1990s," Darby says. He foresees a delay "of several years" before airlines outside the USA adopt flexible training programmes. He expects the world simulator fleet to grow almost 130% from 1990 to 2005, from 500 to more than 1,100, while the world aircraft fleet grows at half that rate. H 34 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 8 - 14 April, 1992
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