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Aviation History
1993
1993 - 1909.PDF
BALLISTICS Europe feels threatened. By 2010, at the latest, some of the more unstable regimes in North Africa, the Middle East and the southern republics of the CIS will be able to target London, Paris and Berlin with ballistic missiles (BMs), possibly equipped with nuclear or chemical warheads. Western intelligence assessments indi cate that, by the early years of the next century, up to six developing countries will have missiles with a 3,000km (l,600nm) range, while at least three are expected to have 5,000km-range systems. The threat is completely different to that perceived by the Western nations during the Cold War, when both the superpowers' nuclear-missile arsenals were held in check by fears that even a limited exchange would escalate into a full nuclear war. A decision to launch a BM attack on Europe in 2010 may not be based on such rational thought. The emerging missile-threat, thrust into the public view by Iraq's indiscriminate Scud attacks on Israel and Saudi Arabia during the 1991 Gulf War, is focusing the minds of European defence organisations. NATO is already conducting a BM- defence (BMD) study while the Western European Union (WEU) held a sym posium in Rome on 20-21 April, to debate anti-missile defence for Europe. Besides the threat to economic and military tar gets, the report reflected the psychological impact on a population targeted' by a missile attack. >? \ I x —•• 4 • Ballistic-missile defence shield Space-based surveillance Ground-based surveillance C3I centres Endo-atmospheric interception «HHA Ship-based interceptor "•Sf Land-based interceptor ^^ UAV-based interceptor Exo-atmospheric interception European-ballistic missile defence shield Evidence at the sympo sium noted that "...even without a warhead, a 2t missile such as the Scud can leave a crater 10m wide, several metres deep and demolish houses, streets, shops and even reinforced- concrete buildings. Many of the Al Hus sein [improved Scud] missiles, which Iraq launched against Israel, disintegrated be fore reaching the ground, but the kinetic energy produced was more than enough to cause catastrophic effects. "The launch of a few dozen missiles over an urban area can therefore kill several hundred civilians and, at the same time, gain relevant results at strategic level. To this end, relatively crude weap ons, easily produced in large quantities at low cost, can do the job." This is based on the use of conventional high-explosive warheads. The effect on a population's morale would be magnified if fuel-air explosive, chemical or nuclear warheads were used. The symposium evi dence notes that "...the launching of SSMs [surface-to-surface missiles] with chemi cal or nuclear warheads can therefore determine the odds in a conflict, shorten a war or force an escalation". Work is now under way on BMD programmes to protect European sover eign territory. The UK Ministry^of Defence (MoD) is planning to issue ff two-year pre-feasibility study contract**" in April 1994 for an exo-atmospheric BMD system, while the French Government is draft ing a White Paper on BMD issues. The UK study will examine the existing and maturing tech nologies required to defeat a BM attack on the UK. MoD officials believe that, once the study is completed, the project will be widened to incorpo rate similar European programmes, with the ultimate aim of developing a com mon European BMD system. Such a system would effectively be an attempt to create a "ring of steel" along Europe's southern and eastern borders, to protect against missiles from the east and south. With the political will for a European BMD sys tem beginning to coa- BALLIS THR lesce, the debate is beginning to focus on how — and where — to destroy an incoming missile. The first priority is to be able to detect and react to a hostile BM launch. As Henri Martre, former president of French aero space organisation GIFAS, said in giving evidence at the WEU symposium: "The most urgent studies concern the warning system and the architecture of the com mand and control system." Once this is in place, development of anti-missile systems can begin. The next decision is when to destroy the missile — in its boost phase, shortly after launch and within the atmosphere, or in space, using an exo-atmospheric interceptor. Destroying the missile in the boost phase has its advantages. The interception may well be easier because, during a missile's terminal phase, with the warhead diving back into the atmosphere, a speed of 2,000-4,500m/s or more will be reached. The speed of the incoming war head grows with missile range, with a reciprocal increase in the difficulty of carrying out an interception. A further advantage of a boost-phase kill is that the debris from a destroyed missile, which might include an intact warhead, would fall on the country from which it was launched, rather than on a country under its flightpath. Destroyiung a missile in the terminal phase would be partially self-defeating if missile debris were to fall on friendly territory. For a boost-phase interception, detec tion and command, control, commu nication and intelligence (C3I) become paramount because of the very short decision times available in which to de cide if a BM launch is a threat. A decision is necessary within seconds, probably before the missile's target was determined. In a European "ring-of-steel" concept, three major basing options for a boost- phase BMD kill system are available: deployment on ships in the Mediterra nean, a system deployed along southern European shores and the islands of the Mediterranean and an air-based system aboard high-flying unmanned air vehicles. With an exo-atmospheric interceptor, engaging the warhead in space as it falls towards its target, one of the advantages 34 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 4 - 10 August, 1993
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