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Aviation History
1994
1994 - 1302.PDF
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW help," says DASA board member and air craft group president Hartmut Mehdorn. He adds: "1 do not think anybody is able to force the USA to stop indirect state aid and I think Europe must adapt to what the USA does." Mehdorn estimates that the USA spends some $2.5 billion a year on aerospace research and develop ment, although it is hard to be precise in this estimate because of the number of secret "black" pro grammes being con ducted. The European level of funding, according to Meh dorn, is "much less". In the past, he says, "...we put a lot of money into subsidis ing crops and coal miners", but this is "...yesterday's invest ment. We should look more for future tech nology and future structures," he insists. Mehdorn's sentiments have now been echoed by Panavia managing director Oscar Friedrich, who has been pushing for invest ment in a future-generation technology demonstrator, to capitalise on the experi ence gained from the Eurofighter pro gramme, and to act as a springboard into a future combat-aircraft programme. The Government has shown no interest in such a programme as yet. CIVIL AIRCRAFT Speaking at the 1993 BDLI general assem bly, Goehner said that US indirect subsidies threatened Airbus Industrie's 30% share of the airliner market. With a 37.9% stake in the consortium through the acquisition of Deutsche Airbus (now Deutsche Aerospace Airbus), DASA has every reason to be protective of this air liner programme. This is even more so, now that the two latest models in the range, the A321 and the forthcoming A319, are to undergo final assembly at DASA's Hamburg plant — a major coup for the company. The BDLI estimates that, despite present market problems, civil aviation is continu ing to grow at an annual rate of between 4% and 6% and it expects global traffic to dou ble within a decade. Mehdorn estimates that the value of the global civil-aircraft market over the next two decades amounts to some $800 billion. Nevertheless, says the BDLI, demand for aircraft remains in one of its cyclical stagnation periods, which is pre dicted to occur roughly every eight years and was triggered this time in the wake of the Gulf War. International Air Transport Association (IATA) figures say that airlines lost some $2 billion in 1993, on top of $13.5 billion already lost since 1990. With these losses holding back demand for new aircraft, manufacturers are forced to cut back pro duction rates, which Piller predicts will The long-awaited Eurofighter first flight has boosted military prospects lead to an increase in unit costs. Piller also complains that non-US man ufacturers are suffering under the low dol lar-exchange rate, through being forced to sell their products at dollar prices. The dol lar is "...today used as a weapon in a com mercial and economic war", he says. MILITARY TECHNOLOGY German industry maintains that the defence field, too, is in need of some level ling. German controls on arms exports are considerably tighter than in other European countries and defence manufacturers' repeated calls for a uniform European poli cy on the issue have so far met with little concrete response. DASA feels that the lack of a European security policy and common export policy damages Germany's chances of establishing partnerships for defence joint ventures. There are plans to establish a joint French-German defence procurement agency, to assist in the management of co operative programmes established under the procurement agencies of the respective goverments. This is said to be more likely to focus on lower-technology, ground- based systems, however. In a post-Cold War political climate which has led to repeated defence budget cuts and threatened the Eurofighter pro gramme — eventually leading to its revi sion and a costly delay in the entry-into- service date — Schrempp threatened in November to withdraw DASA from the defence field if the situation worsened. DASA now says that the future of the military-aircraft business has brightened following the successful — albeit much delayed — first flight of the Eurofighter 2000. With the strong left-of-centre German Social Democratic Party saying that it intends to cancel procurement of the aircraft if it gets into power, however, industry is being pressurised to cover around DM400 million in programme-bud get overruns. Some feel that DASA may simply be whistling in the dark. RESCUE PLAN In October 1993, fol lowing the announce ment of DASA's re structuring, Goehner proposed an eight- point support plan for the industry. While saying that the Government could not and would not influence manage ment decisions, he said that it would do what it could to improve background conditions. Goehner wanted the Government to: • push for a multi-lateral GATT agreement to "...bring today's widely differing compet itive conditions among manufacturing nations closer together and prevent new subsidy races"; • enforce strict compliance with existing international obligations, specifically the European/US bilateral agreement on air craft subsidies; • create a "new, effective, support struc ture" for research and development, to fit changing conditions; • press for a separate EU programme to support aerospace technology within the European Commission's "Fourth Framework for Research", which covers research spending up to 2000; • maintain minimum capacities in the defence sector, re-consider existing arms- export policy and sanctions, and press for a harmonised European policy on civil prod ucts with military applications; • give more German air force overhaul work to industry; • support satellite technology for commu nication, navigation and earth observation, particularly for the improvement of nation al infrastructures; • promote public understanding of the importance of aerospace technology. Mehdorn says that Bonn's response to this plan has been "very positive" and Goehner has promised that the Government will try to introduce a policy to give it substance by June. Others are more sceptical, however, pointing out that politicians are notorious ly reluctant to make new policy in the run up to an election. Because of that, industry may have to wait until after October before Bonn puts its money where its mouth is. • FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 25 - 31 May, 1994
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