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Aviation History
1994
1994 - 1451.PDF
[MUK INTERN Editorial Enquiries Editorial Fax Display Advertising Display Advertising Fax Classified Advertising Classified Advertising Fax O N A L +44 (81)652 3842 +44 (81)6523840 +44 (81)6523315 +44 (81)6528981 +44 (81)6616373 +44 (81)6523279 Telex 892084 REEDBP G Subscriptions +44 (81) 402 8491 fax:+44 (81) 402 8383 Back issues (recent copies only) +44(371)810433 Picture Library +44 (81) 652 3427 Flight Directories +44 (707) 665151 USA Newstrade Sales Enquiries +1 (718) 392 7477 LONDON Quadrant House, The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey SM2 5AS, UK EDITORIAL ENQUIRES Editor Allan Winn Editor's PA Barbara Raine Deputy Editor Forbes Mutch News Editor Andrew Chuter Operations/Safety Editor David Learmount Business Editor Kevin 0'Toole Commercial Aviation Editor Kieran Daly Defence Aviation Editor Douglas Barrie Technology/Industry Editor Simon Elliott Data Systems Editor Jenny Long Editorial Assistant Kale Sarslield Production Editor Chris Thornton Design Editor Mike Wells Layout Sub-editor Annabel Goddard Technical Artist Tim Hall Technical Artist David Hatchard Technical Artist Giuseppe Picarella Spaceflight Correspondent Tim Furniss Photographer (Europe) Mark Wagner +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 +44 (81) 652 3842 (81) 652 3882 (81) 652 3882 (81) 652 3852 (81) 652 3843 (81) 652 3845 (81) 652 3835 (81) 652 3837 (81) 652 3834 (81) 652 3838 (81) 652 3847 (81) 652 3842 (81) 652 3850 (81) 652 3828 (81) 652 3848 (81) 652 8047 (81) 652 8047 (81) 652 8054 (237)451756 (81) 944 5225 Display Advertisement Sales Group Advertisement Manager Trevor Parker+44 (81) 652 3319 Advertisement Secretary Lisa Goold +44 (81) 652 3315 Deputy Advertisement Manager Nick Wilcox+44 (81) 652 3892 Senior Area Manager Robin Gordon +44 (81)652 4998 Area Manager Janice Lowe +44 (81) 652 3316 Advertisement Production Howard Mason +44 (81) 652 3267 EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST +33 (1) 46 29 47 61 33 (1) 46 29 47 49 +49 (89) 689 1041 +49 (89) 689 1045 +33 (1)4825 5261 972 (3) 967 1155 +7 (095) 393 4717 +7 (095) 393 4717 +33 (1) 46 29 46 29 +39 (2) 58084 302 European Editor Julian Moxon Fax • Munich Correspondent Andrzej Jeziorski Fax - Paris Correspondent Gilberl Sedbon Israel Correspondent Arie Egozi + Moscow Correspondent Alexander Velovich Fax Sales Director (France) Pierre Mussard Representative (Italy) Romano Ferrario AMERICAS American Editor Graham Warwick +1 (404) 587 2927 Fax +1 (404) 594 1534 Washington Correspondent Ramon Lopez +1 (703) 836 7443 Fax +1 (703) 836 8344 USA West Coast Correspondent (Los Angeles) GuyNorris +1 (714) 252 8971 Fax +1 (714) 252 8972 President RBP (USA) Ray Barnes +1 (212) 867 2080 Traffic Manager Josie Cordero +1 (212) 867 2080 Fax +1 (212) 687 6604 Vice President US Sales John Tidy +1 (714) 756 1057 Fax +1 (714) 756 2514 Sales Director (Mid West and Canada) Gene Glendinning +1 (708) 635 9920 Fax +1 (708) 635 0602 Sales Director (East Coast) Robert Hancock +1 (703) 836 7444 Fax +1 (703) 836 7446 Business Development Director Sheena Robbins +1 (703) 836 7444 Fax +1 (703) 836 7446 ASIA/PACIFIC Singapore Office +65 226 3188 Fax +65 227 1769 Australian Correspondent Paul Phelan +61 (70) 532 791 Fax +61 (70) 533 003 Sales Director Mike Hancock (Singapore) Account Manager Susan Yeo Regional Representative (Japan) Shoichi Maruyama +81 Fax +81 +65 226 3188 +65 226 3188 +65 223 6960 (3)3234 2161 (3)3234 1143 Publisher Gavin Howe +44 (81) 652 3675 COMMENT TOO MUCH LIGHT? Canadair, Fokker and Avro all build regional jetliners. Embracr is building one. Boeing wants to build one in partnership with the Chinese and Japanese. Avro wants to build a new one, preferably with a partner. Canadair wants to build a bigger version of its current one. Now Deutsche Aerospace (DASA) wants to form a consortium to build a new one, and is offering to sell part of its Fokker regional-airliner operations as a sweetener. That amounts to a lot of activity for a market which, by all estimates, will account for less than 20% of jet-airliner sales by numbers (and certainly less than 10% by value) in the next 20 years. Not all of these separate projects, of course, will come to fruition. Some will drop by the wayside for simple commer cial reasons. Others may well, in fact, turn out to be the same thing anyway, just viewed from opposite ends. British Aerospace wants Avro to find a partner before it proceeds with the RJX; DASA wants Fokker to find a partner or partners before proceeding on the Future Advanced Small Airliner (FASA). Even so, the world's airlines could easi ly find themselves being offered at least four different new regional jets — two small ones from North and South America; and two larger ones from European and US/Chinese/Japanese consortia. That does not count future offerings from the CIS manufacturers, or future developments from developing industries such as those of Indonesia and Korea. The two smaller aircraft (Canadair's 70- seat regional jet and Embraer's EMB-145) are relatively simple and low-cost develop ments. Any new 100-seater, however, is likely to be expensive to produce. To satisfy the fundamental requirement that it be more efficient and economic to operate than today's crop of Fokker Jetliners, Avroliners, Boeing 737-500s and assorted turboprops, it will have to incor porate state-of-the-art technology, and have to be built in a state-of-the-art manner. Technologies such as fly-by-wire or fly-by- light and structural composites do not "It is not certain that there will be room for all who wish to retain a share in the market." come cheap. Because these new airliners will have to be sold at attractive prices, they will have to be sold in very large numbers so that their manufacturers can recoup their very large investments. As manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus can attest, it is not easy to- recoup the development investment in a large airliner, even when there is little or no direct competition in the marketplace to artificially limit prices. Nevertheless, there will certainly be a demand for these smaller regional airliners, as traffic grows and today's noisier, less- fuel-efficient airlin ers are retired. While it might be easy to see that, however, it is less easy to see how three or four manu facturers in a con sortium could each derive enough income from such a project to make it worth their individ ual whiles. While it is almost certain that the consortium approach will be the only one which works, it becomes much less certain that there will be room in the various consortia for all those who wish to retain a presence in the regional-jet market. Much the same argument applies (but perhaps even more forcefully) to the much- talked-of, but little-nearer, plans to form a European consortium to build the next generation of regional turboprops. That would reduce the attraction of any possible DASA offer to relinquish part of its interest in the market as a quid pro quo for leading the jet development. No matter how good their existing or future products may be, there are simply too many manufacturers involved — or trying to get involved — in what is, financially, an even smaller market to make any one manufacturer or its prod ucts indispensible. Talk of Airbus Industrie-style groupings to make small airliners may sound attrac tive to people who want to see existing manufacturers preserve their places in what is still a significant market. To the hard- nosed financiers who will eventually con trol the investment decisions, however, a bit part in a risky venture may not appear very attractive. • FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 15-21 June, 1994 3
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