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Aviation History
1995
1995 - 0011.PDF
AIR TRANSPORT VLCT study identifies 1,000-strong market GUY NORRIS/SEATTLE EARLY RESULTS of the study into the very-large commercial transport (VLCT) being run by Boeing and the Airbus partners, indicate a possible market for up to 500 aircraft of more than 500 seats by the year 2010. As many as 1,000 could be needed by 2020. "These numbers show there is enough of a market for such an aircraft, but it's not a large mar ket," says Boeing large-airplane- development joint programme development senior manager, Deborah Dollard. The market probe is die focus of the joint VLCT study by Aero spatiale, Boeing, British Aerospace, CASA and Daimler-Benz Aero space (formerly Deutsche Aero space). The study was extended in March 1994. If all sides agree that the market is large enough, and elect to contin ue the effort at the end of the study phase in mid-July, the team will begin evaluation of a common con figuration later this year. The two groups are already looking at early configurations, as part of prelimi nary exercises to see how common standards could be developed if the project goes ahead. "Each has put a different con figuration on the table, but for study purposes only," says Dollard. Boeing's VLCT is based around a 600-seater developed from studies by its own in-house New Large Airplane (NLA) study (Flight International, 21 De- Boeings NLA was the basis for its VLCT work cember, 1994-3 January, 1995). The European version is a 500- seater based largely on the A3XX outlined in some detail by Airbus at the 1994 Farnborough air show. Some 38 individual teams within the VLCT study meet "at least once a montfr", while team leaders, Boeing's John Hayhurst and DASA's Jurgen Thomas, are briefed on progress at similar inter vals. Airbus Industrie, which is act ing as advisor to its partners, attends all the European planning meetings and representatives sit on the study's steering committee. The main efforts of the team are focused on: • preliminary agreement on all business matters. "We have not yet resolved launch criteria, how we could go about putting the joint venture together or how it would be incorporated and taxed," says Dollard; • programme viability. A financial viability study is under way using data from all sources, mainly that of the market forecast. "We won't be sharing cost information, but we have to have some basic assump tions so tJiat when we come togeth er we'll have some common ground if we get started," Dollard says. • product development. The process of developing common standards for the VLCT; • programme planning. Dev elopment of key milestones; • anti-trust issues. "We had to clear this study with anti-trust agencies. The different working groups have attorneys at all meet ings and everyone involved has had training in anti-trust law," Dollard says; • valuation. "We are developing processes for the valuation of work packages if we proceed," says Dollard; • programme integration. Sort-^ ing out the basic logistics of how to transfer relevant data between various work teams. • FAA to look at cockpit design THE US FEDERAL Aviation Administration is beginning a year-long study of modern airliner cockpit-design following concerns raised by recent accidents. It says that, in the light of "sev eral [unspecified] accidents", it is creating a team "...to evaluate cur rent-generation transport-catego ry airplane-cockpit design". The review is to focus on "sys tems dealing with [pilot] flight- mode awareness" in large airliners, says the FAA's Transport Airplane Directorate in Seattle, Washington. It names the aircraft types to be studied. They are: all Airbus types, except the old, traditional-cockpit A300s; Boeing 737s from the -300 onward, and the 757,767 and 747- 400; McDonnell Douglas' MD- 11, MD-80 and MD-90; and the Fokker 100 series. There have been accidents in which pilot flight-mode confusion is known, or believed to have been a contributory factor. These include the 20 January, 1992, Air Inter A3 20 crash on approach to Strasbourg, France (in which there were 88 fatalities) and the 26 April, 1994, China Air Lines A3 00-600 accident at Nagoya, Japan, in which 264 people died. Several serious, but non-fatal incidents involving various types have also been judged by investi gating authorities to be attribut able to mode-confusion. The review team, expected to include representation from the European Joint Aviation Auth orities, will issue reports and is due to complete its work within a year. The FAA intends the team to identify problems on individual types, and review the modern- cockpit man/machine interface. J China Airlines to take another two Airbus A300s CHINA AIRLINES (CAL) of Taiwan is expected to place an order soon for two more Airbus Industrie A300-600Rs, as part of its ten-year fleet-renewal and expan sion plan. A purchase agreement is expected early this month, according to a senior CAL source. The deal is understood to be worth around $180 million and calls for the delivery of the two aircraft in 1997 and 1998. CAL already operates a fleet of five Pratt & Whitney PW4158- powered A300-600Rs, together with six older A300B4-200s. The carrier will take delivery of another A300-600R in February on an eight-year lease. The airline plans eventually to phase out its A300B4s and in crease the number of 270-seat A300-600Rs to 15 (Flight Inter national, 21 December, 1994-3 January, 1995). • Taiwanese domestic carrier Formosa Airlines has ordered two new Fokker 50 turboprops, worth an estimated $30 million.The two 56-seat aircraft are due for delivery in February and June 1995 and will be used on scheduled domestic ser vices. The airline operates eight Saab 340s and will receive a ninth 37-seat aircraft in January. • FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 4 - 10 January 1995
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