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Aviation History
1995
1995 - 3424.PDF
EDITORIAL UK Editorial Enquiries Editorial Fax Editor Allan Winn Editor's PA Lisa Jenkins Deputy Editor Forbes Mutch News Editor Andrew Chuter Operations/Safety Editor David Learmount Business Editor Kevin O'Toole Commercial Aviation Editor Kieran Daly Defence Aviation Editor Douglas Barrie Aviation Research Editor Jennifer Pite Technical Reporter Andrew Doyle Editorial Assistant Kate Sarsfield Production Editor Chris Thornton Art Editor Alexis Rendell Layout Sub-Editor Annabel Wells Technical Artist Tim Hall Technical Artist David Hatchard Technical Artist Giuseppe Picarella Spaceflight Correspondent Tim Furniss Photographer (Europe) Mark Wagner Picture Librarian: Kim Hearn EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST European Editor Julian Moxon +44(181)652 3842 +44(181)652 3840 +44(181)652 3882 +44(181)652 3882 +44(181)652 3852 +44(181)652 3843 +44(181)652 3845 +44(181)652 3835 +44(181)652 3837 +44(181)652 3834 +44(181)652 3847 +44(181)652 3838 +44(181)652 3842 +44 (181| 652 3850 +44(181)652 3828 +44(181)6523848 +44(181)6528047 +44(181)6528047 +44(181)6528054 +44(1237)471960 +44(181)944 5225 +44(181)652 3427 Lr ZsJJj JJJ ^ J J J +33(1)46 2947 61 [Fax+33 (1)46 29 47 49] Munich Correspondent Andrzej Jeziorski +49 (89) 6891041 [Fax+49 (89) 6891045] Paris Correspondent Gilbert Sedbon Israel Correspondent Arie Egozi Moscow Correspondent Alexander Velovich +33(1)482552 61 +972(3)9671155 +7(095)3934717 [Fax+7 (095) 393 4717] AMERICAS American Editor Graham Warwick +1(770)587 2927 (Fax+1(770) 5941534] Washington Correspondent Ramon Lopez +1 (703) 836 7443 [Fax+1(703) 836 8344] West Coast Correspondent Guy Norris +1 (714) 252 8971 [Fax+1(714) 252 8972] ASIA PACIFIC Asian Editor (Singapore) Paul Lewis Australian Correspondent Paul Phelan +65 226 3188 [Fax+65 2271769] +61 (70) 532 791 [Fax+61 (70) 533 003] DISPLAY ADVERTISEMENT SALES UK and EUROPE Display Advertising Enquiries +44 (181) 652 3315 Display Advertising Fax +44 (181) 652 8981 Group Advertisement Director Trevor Parker +44 (181) 652 3319 Secretary Lisa Devlin +44(181)6523315 Advertisement Production Display/Classified Howard Mason +44 (181) 652 3267 EAST EUROPE, GERMANY, SCANDINAVIA, UK Senior Area Manager Robin Gordon +44 (181) 652 4998 NETHERLANDS, PORTUGAL, SPAIN, UK Area Manager Janice Lowe +44 (181) 652 3316 FRANCE Sales Director France Pierre Mussard ITALY Representative Romano Ferrario NORTH AMERICA Vice-president US Sales John Tidy Sales Director East Coast Robert Hancock Sales Director Mid-West & Canada Gene Glendinning Traffic Manager Debbie Kolb MIDDLE EAST Robin Gordon ASIA, AUSTRALIA +33(1)46 2946 29 [Fax+33 (1)40 93 03 37] +39(2)66034435 [Fax+39 (2) 6603 4367] +1(714)7561057 [Fax+1(714) 756 2514] +1(703)836 7444 [Fax+1(703) 836 7446] +1(708)304 5588 [Fax+1(708) 304 9559] +1(212)545 5376 [Fax+1(212) 679 9455] +44(181)6524998 Singapore Account Manager Karen Kwan +65 226 3188 [Fax+65 223 6960] CLASSIFIED & RECRUITMENT Group Advertisement Manager Gareth Pask International Sales Executives Mo Buttivant Judith Slann Classified Sales Executives Sarah Harvey Simon Lees Lucy Middelboe Enquiries Classified USA Gail Tavelman Classified Asia/Pacific Karen Kwan Publisher Gavin Howe +44(181)6524814 +44(181)7703032 +44(181)7703011 +44(181)7703010 +44(181)7703027 +44(181)7703030 +44(181)6616373 +1(212)545 5403 +652263188 +44(181)652 3675 TOO MUCH TOO SOON? THE OUTBREAK of massive orders must surely have made the last quarter of 1995 a dream for aircraft salesmen — but does it mean a return to nightmares for airframe and engine manufacturers? Probably the biggest single fear for a manu facturer, after that of not having any orders, is that of having too many. On die surface, die combination of the Saudia, Singapore Airlines and Valujet orders alone — along with the threat of another massive order from Malaysian — could be enough to make the manufactur ers' fear of plenty come all too true. For most of this decade, manufacturers have been doing what they have needed to do for a long time — downsizing to meet die realistic market expectations of die next decade and beyond. The process has been painful so far, and is by no means complete — as die preliminary discussions between Boeing and McDonnell Douglas over a possible co-operation demon strate all too clearly. That downsizing has left most manufacturers and — perhaps more crucially — their compo nents suppliers unable to rack-up production quickly enough to meet market fluctuations. Most of them would, of course, not want to expand again too quickly, so sure are they now that high-volume production as seen in the late 1980s cannot be sustained in the long term. With that in mind, the manufacturers must now balance their caution against the demands of airlines which wish to modernise and expand dieir fleets. Too much production capacity, and the manufacturers will be left with anodier cycle of downsizing; too little, and they leave their markets vulnerable to incursions by new entrants. (The latter, inevitably, will lead to an "Manufacturers have been downsizing to meet realistic market demands" even greater over-capacity in the market come the next, equally inevitable, downturn.) The trouble is that nobody knows just what the effect of these massive orders will be on the rest of the market. Although SIA may have decided that it and its subsidiaries will need up to 77 Boeing 777s in the next few years, for example, there is nothing to say that the world airline industry needs that many air craft and the capacity that they represent as an increment. SIA has a policy of running a particularly young fleet, with an average age far lower than those of most other airlines. Long before its 77th 777 is due in service, its first ones will probably have appeared on the second-hand or lease market. Their subsequent operators may be airlines which would always have been in the market for used or leased aircraft — but they might also have been on Boeing's target list of new buyers. The massive orders from SIAS, Saudia and the like might not, in effect, represent a boost to the market, more a displacement sideways of it. Not only that — these large orders tend to involve price discounts which would not be available to those ordering aircraft or engines in ones and twos, so the price for doing business sooner may be less profit later. (On the other hand, a limit on production might just force more manufacturers to hold out for prices closer to "list": the concept of paying full price or losing their place in the queue would be a novel one for most airlines.) If these orders do prove to be as much substi tution for others' as they are incremental for the initial customers, gearing up production to satis fy those customers could prove to be a major pit fall for the whole manufacturing sector. Success could be the industry's biggest nightmare. • Reminder Entries for the Flight International Aerospace Industry Awards 1996 close on the 8 December. The awards recognise aerospace achievements in 1995 across 11 categories covering • Air Transport • Business and General Aviation • Corporate Strategy • Environment • Helicopters • Infrastructure • Maintenance, • Military Aviation • Space and Missiles • Systems and Components • Training and Safety • Aerospace Personality of the Year. The winners will be revealed at a gala banquet at The Shangri- La Hotel, Singapore during the Asian Aerospace Exhibition in February. For information on how to enter contact Lisa Jenkins on +44 181 652 3882 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 29 November - 5 December 1995 3
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