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Aviation History
1996
1996 - 0028.PDF
rVIi£tiJ\Sj'fSj The aerospace industry finally lifted itself out of recession in 1995. Airlim are back in profit, civil-aircraft orders are becoming more respectable and those military programmes which have so far survived the axe appear to be back on track. Yet this upturn promises to be different. The talk across industry is not of a return to the boom, but of restructuring and strategic alliances. In short, there will be growing evidence in 1996 that aerospace is coming of age. " C=PC3C3< , / ' Aerospace industry KEVIN OTOOLE/BUSINESS EDITOR LAST YEAR'S FORECAST for the aero space industry predicted a further round of consolidation in 1995 on both sides of the Atlantic. The prediction for 1996 is disap pointingly similar. If there is a new variation, then it may be that more of the action begins to shift to Europe. The region's industry, with the possible excep tion of the UK, has made a slow and unconvinc ing start to restructuring. There are signs of change. Germany has led off in continental Europe, with Daimler-Benz Aerospace (DASA) unveiling its swingeing Dolores (dollar-low rescue) plan, complete with 8,800 job cuts and plant closures. Although offi cially prompted by the damaging plunge in the US dollar, such a re-ordering of German aero space interests has been long overdue. As the plan is put into effect over the next year, alongside a much broader rethink within the Daimler-Benz group, Germany's long-term aerospace vision should start to become clearer. Unfinished business includes the fate of engine- maker MTU, with BMW Rolls-Royce still in the wings ready to make an acquisition if and when the unit's relationship with Pratt & Whitney is resolved. Like British Aerospace before it, DASA will also have to take a hard, pragmatic look at its Fokker/Dornier regional-aircraft business. Fokker has been in a state of re-organisation ever since DASA took control two years ago, but, with the Dutch company sailing perilously close to collapse, the time is right for a more conclusive restructuring. France, too, appears to be facing up to the need for fundamental change, spurred on by a new resolve within the French Government to push ahead with cuts in state spending, including proposals for severe cuts in the defence budget. Aerospatiale has made tentative proposals for heavy job cuts and may be forced to produce them if it is to emerge intact from the pending re-organisation of the French industry — not least, to secure a much needed recapitalisation from its increasingly tough-minded state own ers. Snecma, too, will complete its slimming back to its core. If all goes well, 1996 is likely to see Thomson- CSF become the first of the French state-owned defence/aerospace giants to be privatised. A landmark indeed. The national rationalisation should also ease the way towards consolidation at European 26 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 3 - 9 January 1996
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