FlightGlobal.com
Home
Premium
Archive
Video
Images
Forum
Atlas
Blogs
Jobs
Shop
RSS
Email Newsletters
You are in:
Home
Aviation History
1997
1997 - 0032.PDF
FORECASTS Aerospace KEVIN OTOOLE/LONDON INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION claimed its most famous victims yet in 1996. The year started with the demise of Fokker and ended with McDonnell Douglas (MDC) on the way to Boeing, as was already looking inevitable in 1996's prediction. This year m^y not produce the same drama, but should hold plenty to keep boardroom strategists busy. The fall-out from the MDC acquisition, which is still months away from being finalised, will occupy centre stage for much of the year. Boeing must decide which non-core parts of the business itwill buildup, and which, if any, are for disposal. The combined BoeingAMDC heli copter operations provide a case in point, with both Textron and United Technologies, owners of Bell and Sikorsky, having given signs over the past couple of years that they could be partici pants if consolidation is on the cards. The MDC missiles business could emerge as a candidate for disposal, given that it is unlikely to reach critical mass in competition with the existing big three US missiles houses of Hughes, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. Although the MDC acquisition probably marks the beginning of the end of US defence Airbus restructuring has become critical, but the talk goes on consolidation, there may be other deals yet to come as further tidying up of the supplier base occurs. Anticipation is mounting over an announcement on the fate of the Texas Instruments business and General Motors' intentions towards its now-restructured Hughes subsidiary. There is perhaps room for another big merger among companies such as Hughes, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon, to form a third giant to stand alongside Boeing and Lockheed Martin, each of which now has- sales in the S30-40 billion range. The more pressing issue in 1997, however, is how Europe reacts to this latest piece of US strategy, and much of that remains in the hands of France. The Boeing/MDC deal has made it more imperative than ever for Airbus to restruc ture into a stand-alone company with full con trol of manufacturing and product decisions, as well as the cost implications which go with them. British Aerospace and Daimler-Benz Aerospace (DASA), together with their respec- Air Transport MAX KINGSLEY-JONES/LONDON IF 1996 WAS THE YEAR in which aircraft orders at last started rolling again from the world's airlines, then 1997 is due to be the year in which airliner manufacturers begin to increase production rates in earnest. Despite two years of growing backlogs, deliv eries from Airbus, Boeing and McDonnell Douglas (MDC) continued to hover just below Jet airliner deliveries and FIIQI4T orders 1991 -1998 hMSEMA 1000 n <o800 •°600 - 53 400 - 200 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 estimated forecast forecast cDonneil Douglas Boeing Airbus Orders the 400 aircraft mark in 1996. In 1997, the out put is due to climb to 600 shipments, with Boeing taking around 360 and Airbus reaching 190. MDC's pending union with Boeing raises questions over its future delivery patterns, but the likelihood is that it will continue to work off its backlog, at least for a year. Orders were certainly up during 1996, with the gross tally reaching the 1,000 mark, where it has not been since the heady days of the late 1980s. Airbus, for one, is already talking of re peating in 1997 its intake of around 300 orders. The return of confidence to the air-transport industry gathered momentum during 1996, starting with the operating lessors, encouraged by signs of hardening lease rates. By the middle of the year, the airlines were back at the bar gaining table, scrabbling to secure favourable deals before the "bargain-basement" offers ran out. Not all appear to have succeeded, as wit nessed by British Airways' decision to shelve a big order to renew its short-haul fleet. With MDC now effectively sidelined, 1997 will signal die start of a straight fight between Airbus and Boeing, with the first big battle due to take place over their rival programmes for new large airliners. Seattle has already been forced to modify the agenda for its planned 747- 500/600X project, as Airbus raised the tempo of its all-new 5 50-seat A3XX programme. Boeing had been aiming to launch its aircraft before the end of 1996 and start deliveries from late 2000, but so far airlines have been hesitant to sign orders, as they wait to see what Airbus can offer. As a result, Boeing is now aiming for a launch during the first half of 1997, delaying service entry until late 2001. The A3XX timetable trails by a couple of years, but it offers the advantage of a new design, with better future growth potential. Airbus will finalise the baseline definition of the A3 XX dur ing 1997, and a final launch decision is in its sights for 1998, to enable the first examples to be delivered to customers in late 2003. Meanwhile, competition will be fierce in 1997 between the Boeing 777 and Airbus A340/330 ranges, with new family members in prospect for both. Airbus is close to taking a go- ahead decision on the stretched and re-engined 370-seater A340-500/-600, which is being pitched at the 747-200 replacement market and is expected to enter service in 2001. The new A3 30-200 and 777-300 versions are due to have first flights in the second half of 1997, for entry into service in 1998. The fate of MDC's Douglas Aircraft arm in Long Beach should become clearer during the year. Boeing already needs engineering exper tise and even extra production capacity as new programmes are ramped up across the range, including the next-generation 737. The first 737-700 is to enter service with Southwest Airlines in October, with the stretched -800 fol lowing later in 1997after a first flight in July. Work already being tipped to be moved to Long Beach is responsibility for the design and pro duction of the planned 767-400ERX stretch, expected to be launched early in 1997. 30 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 1 - 7 January 1997
Sign up to
Flight Digital Magazine
Flight Print Magazine
Airline Business Magazine
E-newsletters
RSS
Events
