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Aviation History
1997
1997 - 0034.PDF
FORECASTS through, there are now scant few possibilities to get back into another transatlantic partnership, especially now its link with USAir is ending. To have no partner is unthinkable, if BA is to mount an effective challenge to the Lufthansa/SAS/ United Airlines alliance, as well as to see off challenges from KLM/ Northwest Airlines and Swissair/Sabena/Delta Air Lines. The price of giving up a few slots at Heathrow would be worth paying for BA. The US airline industry could itself yet indulge in a renewed bout of consolidation. Rumours of negotiations between Continental and Delta at the end of 1996 again raised a flur ry of speculation — both have ambitions to enter Heathrow and both have also signed codeshares with Air France. It could only take a single merger among the US majors to send the others chasing their own deals. USAir, now freed from its pact with BA, is again in a position to talk as it did a year ago with American and United. EUROPEAN DEREGULATION The year will also see the re-emergence of Air France from its diree years of enforced restruc turing, which has run alongside massive state- aid injection. The airline recently proclaimed that it is set to launch the new Groupe Air France structure on 1 April, which finally brings the parent airline and its Air France Europe regional operations (including Air Inter) under a single holding company. The date for the launch is carefully timed to coincide with the completion of Europe's single air market, removing the last obstacles to enter ing new domestic markets across the region by European carriers. Air France has reason to worry. BA has already built up an impressive presence in France through its TAT acquisition (also to be completed in April), as well as its stake in Air Liberte and, possibly, AOM. Others, too, will be sharpening up their net works and partnerships. Among the bigger moves could be the transfer by SAS of its 49% stake in British Midland to Lufthansa. That would give the alliance a strong presence at Heathrow and an answer toBAs bridgehead in Germany through Deutsche BA. The state-aid carriers of southern Europe will also emerge from restructuring during the year, with more settled balance sheets and look ing to secure niches in the new order. Iberia has made little secret of its willingness to consider a place in the BA/American alliance if invited. ASIAN ALLIANCES The theme of alliances and open skies is also due to run through Asia in 1997, as Japan and the USA battle over a fresh passenger bilateral. The US DoT has already sealed deals with Hong Kong, the Philippines and Thailand, among others, but the real prize isjapan. There seems little prospect of Japan agreeing to full open skies, given its insistence on first achieving a more balanced deal for its carriers in their unequal fight against United and Northwest. Pressure has been building, however, from carriers on both sides of the Pacific for a new deal to replace theageing 1950s bilateral. Acom- promise could be to agree an interim deal, but promise to start working towards open skies. Whatever the outcome, alliances involving the big three Japanese carriers are in prospect. Japan Airlines is already linked to American and has talked to both BA and its partner Qantas, laying the groundwork for an impressive global tie-up. Northwest has been flirting with Japan Air Systems, while All Nippon Airways has its links to Delta and historically to the US carrier's European partners such as Austrian and Sabena. China's aviation industry is also likely to re- emerge into the public eye. Aircraft orders are building up again and at least two local carriers are due for stock-market listings. The hand over of Hong Kong in mid-year will reveal how successful Cathay Pacific has been in its moves to strengthen ties with China. • •i/iti^M*ia»flHFrcnire T HE YEAR STARTS WITH a general consensus that world passenger demand will stay buoyant in 1997. Best forecasts suggest a world growth rate of around 7% for scheduled services, up by one percentage point compared to 1996. Whether it beats the record set in 1996 may yet depend on how well US demand holds up in the wake of the re-imposition of the ticket tax and a general strengthening in fares levels, as well as how fast the markets of mainland Europe recover from what has been a dull 1996. So far, the evidence on both is mixed. The most encouraging signs, at least for airline accountants, is that the drive to bring down costs is still in earnest across the world. Region of airline 1995 1996e 1997f 1998f registration (RPK bn) change change change change Africa Asia/Pacific Europe (incl CIS) Middle East North America Latin America/Caribbean TOTAL Source: ICAO. 53.0 546.8 550.8 69.6 897.5 112.3 2,230 12.2% 11.6% 4.8% 12.3% 3.5% 6.2% 6.3% 8.0% 9.5% 5.7% 7.5% 3.8% 6.5% 6.0% 7.0% 11.0% 6.8% 8.0% 4.3% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 10.5% 6.1% 7.0% 4.0% 7.0% 6.6% Production at last for the EF2000? Defence DOUGLAS BARRIE/LONDON SOMETHINGS NEVER seem to change in European defence. Another 12 months have passed, and still the production investment (PI) go-ahead for the Eurofighter EF2000 has to be approved by the four nations participating in the programme. Germany once again is at the heart of the delay. Problems with the Bonn defence budget have left only a hole where EF2000 production investment funding should have been. Germany and its partner nations are now hop ing to have cleared off the PI phase of the pro gramme by the end of the first quarter of 1997. At the political level, EF2000 progress has been shackled by German funding issues, but at a technical level, the project has at long last begun to move ahead. The flight-test pro gramme is returning encouraging results: a badly needed fillip for the project. All the remaining development aircraft should join the flight-test programme in the first and second quarter of the year. As the EF2000 project rumbles on, there is die possibility of European eyes straying across the Atlantic. With the Joint Strike Fighter pro ject reduced to two teams at the end of 1996 — following the elimination of the McDonnell Douglas (MDC)-led bid — the interest will now focus on emerging foreign interest in the project. Several European Lockheed Martin F-16 users — Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway — are potential candidates, while Australia, Canada and Israel have also expressed interest. Another US project which may attract attention is its embryonic requirement for a replacement interdictor aircraft. This is intend ed to fill the gap left in the US Air Force's strike inventory when the MDC F-15E and 32 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 1 - 7 January 1997
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