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Aviation History
1997
1997 - 0035.PDF
FORECASTS Lockheed Martin F-117 are withdrawn. In a similar vein, the UK JVIinistry of Defence will place feasibility contracts with industry in January covering the Future Offensive Air System, intended to lead to a replacement for the Royal Air Force's Panavia Tornado GR4. This year should also see the fate of the col laborative European Future Large Aircraft finally determined. France appears to be close to finding funding, but Germany now has no cash earmarked for the programme in the near term. The UK, at least at the service level, is growing increasingly concerned that the pro gramme, should it proceed, will not do so at at a pace which meets it second-phase Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules replacement needs. Although the trickle of funding which now passes for Russia's defence budget has failed to keep many development programmes alive, Sukhoi in particular has adapted to "market realities", using export revenues to prime devel opment projects. The prototype Su-30MKI two-seat canard and thrust-vector equipped strike aircraft, on order for India, will be flown in 1997. Senior Sukhoi managers also hope that a variant will eventually supplant the Su-30. Sukhoi's fighter rival, VPK MAPO, has fared less well in the export market, and therefore has struggled to keep some of its own key projects alive. Its fifth-generation fighter, the Mikoyan Object 1.42, appears moribund, with the Russian air force having neither the inclination nor the funding to finish the programme. VPK MAPO also appears to have cut of funding for the project, instead looking to further "deriva tives" of the MiG-29 family in an attempt to secure its position as a fighter manufacturer. The most intriguing potential debutante in 1997 may be China's Chengdu F-10. The first prototype is reputed to be in the final stages of completion, although given the aircraft's Israel Aircraft Industries Lavi design heritage, China may be loathe to publicise the programme. • General Aviation GRAHAM WARWICK/ATLANTA NO-ONE EXPECTS a return to the gen eral-aviation industry's past highs, cer tainly not any time soon, but after a reassuring 1996, general-aviation manu facturers are certain of a robust 1997. The main reason is the number of new aircraft types which will be first delivered in 1997 — ranging from the Cessna 172 piston single to the Gulfstream V business jet. While planned deliveries of some 1,000 new Cessna singles in 1997 will make the biggest difference to the year-end shipment numbers, Gulfstream's plan to double its out put will have the greatest impact on the 1997 billing figures. Gulfstream will not be alone. While 1997 will be the first full year that the US company has built two large business-jet types simultaneous ly — a total of almost 50 GTV-SPs and GVs — Dassault will also be delivering no fewer than four different corporate-jet types for the first time in its history. The French company plans to produce a record 56 Falcon 50EXs, 2000s, 900Bs and 900EXs in 1997 — the first full year of 50EX and 900EX production. At the lighter end, Bombardier will begin deliveries of the Learjet45 by mid-1997 and will by then be producing three different types. With advance sales of 100 aircraft, the 45 is like ly to add substantially to Learjet's shipments in in 1997. Similarly, Cessna will make first deliv eries of both the Citation Bravo and fast-selling Excel in 1997 — the first year for some time (because its product line has been undergoing continuous renovation) that the company has produced a full range of business jets — the Citationjet, Bravo, Ultra, Excel, VII and X. Bombardier substantially increased sales of its Canadair Challenger large corporate-jet in 1996, and hopes to sustain that growth in 1997. Its first Global Express long-range business jets are to be delivered to the completion centre before the end of 1997, but will not make much impact on the year-end figures. Raytheon, sim ilarly, is looking to growth in sales of its existing light Beechjet 400A and mid-sized Hawker 800XP, while flight testing of the new Premier I light business-jet gets under way in 1997. Also due to enter certification flight-testing in 1997 are the Sino Swearingen Aircraft SJ30- 2 light business-jet, and the VisionAire Vantage and Century Aerospace Century Jet — the lat ter pair both single-turbofan business jets, the market for which remains uncertain. More assured of success are the Cirrus Design SR20 and Lancair LC40, new all-composite light air craft which are scheduled for certification and first deliveries towards the end of 1997. While the prognosis for the industry's per formance over the year ahead is generally good, there are some challenges that will come to a head in 1997. The most immediate will be the introduction of reduced vertical-separation minima on North Atlantic routes, requiring business aircraft, as well as airliners, to be suit ably equipped and approved or be denied cer tain flight levels. Next may come the attempt by the European Joint Aviation Authorities to require business-aircraft operators flying over- water to comply with airline-standard extend ed-range twinjet-operations requirements — regarded as a near-impossibility by industry. Perhaps the biggest challenge, however, will be posed by US efforts to reform the Federal Aviation Adminstration, and particularly by proposals to replace the airline-ticket tax now imposed to fund the FAA with a user fee levied on any aircraft operated within the US airspace system. This could adversely impact both gen eral- and business-aviation users as they cannot recover the fee by passing it on to their pas- sangers. Canada, which privatised its air-traffic- control system in late 1996, is already moving towards replacing the current ticket tax with a user fee. In Canada's case, however, business- aircraft users are among the new owners of the airspace system and therefore have a say in set ting the charges. • Bombardier will deliver first Global Express to the completion centre before the end of 1997 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 1 - 7 January 1997 33
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