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Aviation History
1997
1997 - 0196.PDF
INDIA If the policy is retrospective, it will also pose awkward questions for Jet Airways, the only really successful private airline (whose share holders include Gulf Air and Kuwait Airways) to challenge the domestic monopoly of Indian Airlines. Jet Airways has just become the first of India's private operators to acquire new aircraft, bv ordering ten new Boeing 737s to add to its growing fleet of older 737s already in service. Other scheduled operators include East West, Skyline NEPC, Modiluft, NEPC Airlines, Archana Airways and a list of smaller carriers. Several other airlines have already gone to the wall and some of those left, such as Modiluft and Skyline NEPC, have been in almost continuous dispute with a range of leas ing companies and service providers over alleged non-payment of bills. PROBLEMS OVERCOME Despite die problems, private airlines—sched uled and non-scheduled — have grabbed near ly 40% of domestic traffic since the Government's Air Corporation Act effectively lifted the air-services monopoly in 1992. While the competition has been fierce on some of me main trunk routes, yields have not shown any decline, having risen constantly in rupee terms. The NAL study says that although fares have risen about 2.3 times since late 1990, die resulting cash-flow has been swallowed by die costs of heavily taxed fuel—which accounts for close to 40% of operating costs — and of purchasing and leasing aircraft from overseas. Almost all airlines are operating at a loss. The NAL warns that unless New Delhi in vokes a comprehensive strategy for the airline industry through moves such as reducing fuel taxes for feeder aircraft routes, financing infra structure improvements for airports and giving tax incentives for die manufacture of small air liners, its projections will not be attainable. It is against the background of projected growth by the airlines, particularly on feeder routes, that Sharma's hopes of building locally gain renewed credibility. A NAL forecast, which includes market surveys undertaken by itself and the major Western aircraft builders, estimates that 40 aircraft in the 40-seat plus range will be needed between 1993 and 2000 and a further 60 between 2001 and 2010. Shanna believes diat he needs to sell 70 aircraft to make his turboprop programme a success, although what account this takes of die pledged Government cash is unknown. All die usual suspects will be lined up when it comes to speculating on which companies HAL may join forces widi. Buying the defunct Fokker 50 production line is one option. Doing a deal with Aero International (Regional) for the ATR, or even die Jetstream range, is another. Bombardier has declined the invitation for license-build talks, but Shanna says it will try and open a dialogue again. Saab, with its 340 and 2000, is also a potential partner, particularly if reports that Alliance Air, die new Indian • Kldrtl-llrtllrtllhU.lailJllMli LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE could be an important deterrent to growth unless a rapid and comprehensive expan sion of airports and air-traffic- control equipment is put in place. Air Transport Action Group director Thomas Windmuller, speaking recently at a con ference in Bangalore on infrastructure, said diat at least $5 billion is expected to be spent over the next few years — with over half the funds being provided by foreign sources. The building of at least six greenfield airports and the expansion of dozens of existing ones are on the stocks already, and Windmuller points to cities like Madras and Bangalore as having greater potential for expansion than the three major gate ways of Bombay, Calcutta and Delhi. The ATAG boss is critical of India's poorly developed ATC system which Airlines subsidiary, has selected the 2000 to meet its requirement are realised. Also in the wings are the Russians and Ukrainians, who have a range of aircraft which could fit India's requirements. Fairchild Dornier has strongly denied news paper reports circulating at the time of Aero India'96 that it is considering the transfer of 328 turboprop production to HAL. The US/ German manufacturer is talkingwith the Indian company, however, about moving wingproduc- tion and possibly fuselage shell fabrication to India, and has agreed to switch Dornier 228 assembly to HAL's Kanpur Division. It is also possible that HAL might find itself as a recipient of any offset work negotiated as part Air India's long-standing competition to replace old Boeing 747-200s widi eidier Boeing 777s or Airbus A340s. Adecision on the ten finn and 13-option order, worth more than $2 bil lion, is expected diis year. There is also a long- term requirement bv Indian Airlines to replace A300 B2/B4s with either 777s or A340s, while Alliance Air plans to offload its 737-200s in •Y ,•-•','ii',y, 111 i—i 1993-2000 2001-2010 numbers value Sm number value Sm Commercial aircraft 400-seats 300 250 200 150 100 TOTAL 7 14 6 12 6 33 78 910 1.400 420 470 180 825 4.080 Regional and feeder aircraft 40seats + 40 360 Business and commuter aircraft 20seats+ 10+ TOTAL Source: NAL 45 110 195 225 330 715 12 26 11 12 60 32 153 60 45 66 171 1.560 2,600 770 470 1.800 800 8.000 540 225 200 965 "requires wide spacing of flights — some times up to 15min or longer, especially at the largest airports". The top priority for ATC improvement is the linkage between regional-control centres and terminal towers, although implementation of more advanced tech nologies for communication, navigation, surveillance and air-traffic management are essential in the long run, he says. The Airports Authority of India is already responding to the problem by modernising Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta, Madras and some second line airports such as Trivandrum and Hyderabad with vary ing degrees of ATC upgrades — all of which are expected to be on-line by mid year. Nevertheless, it acknowledges the current deficiencies in infrastructure and the implications for satisfying growth in demand if they are not rectified. favour of737-500/600s or A319s. Apart from HAL's activities, there are three other civil- aircraft programmes of note. The largest, in size terms at least, is the NAL's 14- seat Saras twin-turboprop light transport pro ject. Progress on this aircraft, developed in co-operation with the Russian design house Myasischev, awaits a decision from die Russians on exactly what their contribution will be. Subject to outstanding funding issues, the air craft could make its maiden flight in mid-1999. The aft-mounted pusher-type aircraft is like ly to be powered by Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6As in the Indian version and the Omsk Engine's TVD 20M in the Russian variant, which is called die Duet.The NAL study for the Government reckons there is a requirement for 66 business/regional aircraft in the ten-seat plus range between 2001 and 2010. ALL-COMPOSITE DEVELOPMENT Bangalore-based NAL is also completing the development of the all-composite Hansa ab- inito trainer and sports aircraft. The production version of the aircraft — the Hansa 3 — had its first flight late in 1996 after two earlier proto types had logged around lOOh of test flying. Taneja recently started local production of the six-seater Viator and 11 -seater Observer aircraft under licence from Partanevia of Italy at its factory at Hosur, near Bangalore. After years of lying virtually dormant, in part because of Indian Government preoccupation with funding only aerospace projects which had military or space applications, India's civil aero space sector is beginning to assume increased importance. Industrial strategic planners hope that a renewed emphasis on civil manufacturing will help raise the country's share of world aero space production above the miserly 0.14% share it now holds. Q 30 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 22 - 28 January 1997
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