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Aviation History
1998
1998 - 2892.PDF
<junpuiiz\r£ Am tin Apr Manufacturers have concentrated for the past to two years on getting their new designs to the market and on producing aircraft, to recoup their investment. Those thinking of launching new aircraft now will be hoping the any down turn will be short and shallow, and over before their new products come on line early in the next century. There is certain to be at least two new prod uct announcements at NBAA. Cessna will launch a stretched version of its Citation Excel "superlight" business jet and Bombardier is expected to "soft launch" its New Midsize Business Jet (NMBJ). Both the stretched Excel and the XMBJ are intended as competitors for Raytheon's Hawker 800XP mid-size business jet, and are likely to supersede the Citation VII and Learjet60, respectively. Bombardier is like ly to make a full launch contingent on securing sufficient initial orders - it went through a sim ilar process before launching the Global Express in 1993. Elsewhere, there is activity in almost every business aircraft niche, including several that did not exist until recently. One of the most i active segments is the entry-level market. The single-turboprop business aircraft is a recent invention, and now the Pilatus PC-12 and Socata TBM 700 are to be joined by the AASI Jetcruzer and New Piper Meridian. The single- turbofan business jet is also on the horizon, in the shape of Century Aerospace's Century Jet and Visionaire's Vantage, although exactly when these aircraft will become available remains open to question. The current entry-level business jet, Cessna's Citationjet, now faces competition from Raytheon's bigger and faster Premier I, and may be due for improvement. Raytheon, mean while, hopes to make the delayed first flight of the composite-fuselage Premier I on the eve of the Las Vegas show. Sino Swearingen is contin uing development of its SJ30-2, but appears to be carving a new niche for a long-range light business jet. The traditional light business jet market con tinues to be dominated by Cessna's Citation Bravo and Ultra, although sales of Bombardier's competing Learjet 31A have been boosted late ly by the company's own fractional ownership programme. Raytheon appears to be waiting I until next year's NBAA before unveiling a larg er version of its Premier able to compete with Cessna's light Citations and, possibly, replace Raytheon's own Beechjet400A. SUPERLIGHT SEGMENT The new "superlight" segment is represented by Bombardier's Learjet 45 and Cessnas Citation Excel. Deliveries of both began this year after longer than anticipated certification programmes. With both claiming backlogs of 150-200 aircraft, this sector looks likely to be popular. The reason is clear, both aircraft offer levels of cabin comfort usually associated with mid-sized aircraft at prices closer to those of "Traditional" jets still sell, but market interest is moiing towards "super midsize" business jets light business jets. This, inevitably, is having consequences for the mid-sized market. "Traditional" mid-size aircraft, such as the Learjet 60, Dassault Falcon 50 and Hawker 800XP, continue to sell well, but market interest is moving towards so-called "super mid-size" business jets. These claim to offer large-aircraft cabin at mid-size prices. Examples are the Dassault Falcon 2000, Galaxy Aerospace Galaxy (mak ing its NBAA debut at Las Vegas) and the Raytheon Hawker Horizon. In price, as well as size, these aircraft repre sent a new class fitting between today's mid-size jets and large aircraft such as the Bombardier Challenger 604, Dassault Falcon 900 and Gulfstream IV-SP. The aircraft to be launched at NBAA by Bombardier and Cessna appear to be aimed at revitalising the traditional midsize market by offering better value for money. The large business jet market has been dom inated by the same three competitors for sever al years. Dassault has already made improvements to its Falcon 900, and Gulf- stream is expected to follow suit this NBAA, unveiling enhancements to the GrV-SP. Bombardier is expected to hold off announcing any "Challenger 605" until its NMBJ is firmly underway. The new ultra-long-range segment is prov ing an interesting battleground, with Boeing having caned out more of a share of the market than either Bombardier or Gulfstream would like. Whether the 737-based Boeing Business Jet (BBJ) can sustain its initial sales momentum Can the BBJ sustain its initial sales momentum? - and whether Airbus' A319-based Corporate Jet can match it- is the issue. Gulfstream maybe less concerned, because its GV programme is already past the break-even point, but Bombardier's all-new Global Express has yet to enter service and the programme is still some way from break-even. The buoyant large-aircraft market has high lighted one industry issue - a shortage of com pletion capacity. Gulfstream bought K-C Aviation earlier this year to boost its GrVT and GV completion capability, at the same time removing from the market one of the leading independent completion centres for large air craft. Bombardier is boosting its internal com petitions capability, but is vying with Boeing, particularly, for available outside capacity. SUPERSONIC NICHE The latest niche to emerge is for a supersonic business jet (SSBJ). Dassault announced it was studying an SSBJ at last year's NBAA, while Gulfstream confirmed at the Farnborough air- show in September that it had teamed with Lockheed Martin Skunk Works on an SSBJ technical and market feasibility study. Dassault's design is becoming more defined, emerging as a tri-jet with Mach 1.8 cruise speed, 7,400km (4,000nm) range and Falcon 50-size cabin. Gulfstream's starting point is an aircraft with a speed of M1.8-2.0, range of 7,400km and a GIV-sized cabin. Both companies acknowl edge that certification ofan SSBJ is several years away, but both seem intent - if the market is proved to exist - to be there first. Richard Santulli, chairman of Executive Jet and creator of the successful Netjets pro gramme, believes that the SSBJ is an ideal air craft for fractional ownership. As his company, now owned by billionaire investor Warren Buffet, is the largest customer for both the Falcon 2000 and the GIV-SP, Santulli's views are likely to carry considerable weight as Dassault and Gulfstream move forward with their studies. FYactional ownership faces its own issue, however, as the US Federal Aviation Admini stration debates whether to change the rules under which the programmes are operated (see P45). Elsewhere, business aviation faces regula tory challenges ranging from the costs of mov ing to satellite-based navigation to possible restrictions on extended-range operations with twin-engined aircraft. Here the NBAA comes into play, especially now that the closer relations it has developed recently with both its international counter parts and with bodies representing die manu facturers and other branches of general aviation are beginning to pay dividends. Coordinated responses on issues are gaining greater atten tion from regulators. One thing is certain. Just as US investors are beginning to realise that the economy is now a global one, industry is beginning to realise that business aviation is a global endeavour. 3 36 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 14 - 20 October 1998
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