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Aviation History
1999
1999 - 3103.PDF
XUJtArf £ f J£ BfPJiHUttMZttf future mechanisms designed to limit, or at least charge for, the pollution it is causing. One esti mate, contained in the IPCC report, is that avi ation's 3 % contribution to global warming may increase to between 10% and 20% of the total by 2005. Under the future, more environmen tally conscious regime, polluters will have to pay for the share of the environmental damage they cause. Aviation may therefore have to pay pro portionately more than other polluters for its unavoidable use of fossil fuels. "We will have to ask ourselves how important Radiative forcing from aircraft Note: The scale for 2050 is four times greater than that for 1992 I Best estimates of forcing 1992 67% probability that the true valu of forcing falls within this range 2050 FLIGHT GARETH BURGESS 99 0.10 0.08 0.6 0.5 Total (without sulphate cirrus clouds) Above: Comparison of the radiative forcing (greenhouse effect) of aircraft emissions in 1992 and 2050. Note that methane has a positive effect because it helps destroy NOx. The bars overlaid on each pollutant indicate the level of uncertainty associated with the effect each has on the atmosphere. Contrail net radiative forcing 90° Equator Equator -180° Longitude Longitude The effect on global warming of contrails at the top of the atmosphere is expected to increase significantly by 2050 aviation is to the global economy and to our quality of life," says David Griggs, an atmos pheric scientist at the UK Meteorological Centre, Bracknell, and one of the report's authors. "Then, we will have three choices: either to leave it alone completely, to try and do something and let it go on growing, or simply to have less aviation." The report's projections for aircraft pollution take into account the likely cuts in fuel con sumption resulting from improved engine and airframe technology over the next few decades and an air traffic management system that allows aircraft to use the most efficient routes. Aviation may, therefore, be left with no choice but to find other ways of reducing its emissions. These include emissions trading, a market- based approach in which an overall level of emissions production is set, within which com panies (in this case airlines) are allowed to meet that standard in any way they choose. They would be able to sell credits for any emissions reduction below that level to users who cannot. Other methods could include direct charges for emissions, ticket taxes, levies on empty air craft seats, excess traffic to destinations and type of aircraft serving them, and subsidies to pro vide incentives to reduce pollution. Whatever decisions are made, the result for aviation is bound to be tougher legislation and increased costs, possibly leading to major changes in the way aircraft are viewed by a pub lic that has become used to low-cost, go any where travel. The European Commission is already studying a kerosene tax, which European airlines complain would put them at a "serious disadvantage", while having "negligi ble environmental benefits". They point out that increases in fuel prices have done nothing to improve environmental performance, calling instead for government action to improve the efficiency of air transport through measures such as putting Europe's air traffic control sys tem under a single authority. The European Commission has introduced a controversial €125,000 ($131,000) programme to "promote the introduction of price measures to reduce the environmental impact of avia tion". This infuriated the industry, which says it has a far better environmental performance than road transport, and is facing dispropor tionate charges for emissions. Aviation also faces a challenge from high-speed trains. With fewer options for reducing emissions than other forms of transport, it appears that aviation faces an environmental surcharge for continuing to operate. Not surprisingly, some of the more aware in the industry are beginning to ask what kind of global air transport system will be feasible, or even permitted, in 2050. KYOTO PROTOCOL Existing aircraft pollution standards are mainly aimed at improving air quality around airports and there are no specific standards applying to emissions in the cruise. The lead in cutting FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 20 - 26 October 1999
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