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Aviation History
2000
2000 - 0029.PDF
AIRFRAMERS Ultra-large aircraft and regional jets to move ahead, but production to slow MAX KINGSLEY-JONES/LONDON ALTHOUGH 1999 promised some dra matic airliner developments, few came to fruition. But the stage has been set for key activities over the next 12 months - most notably in the ultra-large aircraft and regional- jet sectors. A new high was set in 1999 for airliner ship ments, with Airbus Industrie and Boeing sur passing previous records by delivering 915 aircraft between them (295 Airbuses/620 Boeings). Their tally is 16% up on the 790 air liners delivered in 1998, representing the peak of the current cycle. Boeing will cut production dramatically in 2000 and, although Airbus will increase output again, the year's tally is expect ed to slip back to 1998 levels. Similar output is expected in 2001, with any further trimming by Boeing likely to be coun tered by a rise in European shipments. As expected, sales tumbled in 1999, with the anticipated end-of-year tally of around 700 orders down by about one-third on the near 1,100 average of the last three years. The sur prise was how orders divided, with Airbus (to the end of November) having captured around 65% of all sales. Looking ahead to 2000, the jury is out, with some players expecting demand to be down, and others believing that further recovery of Asian markets will see fortunes improve slightly. Airbus was helped in its 1999 campaigns by the further extension of its product line through the availability of a 100-seat A3 20 family deriv ative, the A318, while 2000 could finally see the arrival of a genuine 747 rival in the consortium's line-up, in the form of the A3 XX. The long-running row between Airbus and Boeing over the need for a giant airliner contin ued in 1999, but, in 2000,'words will likely be transformed into deeds with the formal launch of the much-vaunted 550-seater, likely to be renamed the "A3 50" or perhaps "A550". There are, however, many hurdles to cross before Airbus can make the final push into the very-large-aircraft market - not least the con sortium's restructuring into a single entity and the securing of launch customers and funding commitments. If the A3XX goes ahead next year, deliveries could begin in 2005. If Airbus moves, Boeing is ready to recipro cate with its 430/500-seat 747-400X/400X stretch family, which could be launched after the Airbus and still beat it to the market. Boeing is adamant, however, that it will not respond to Airbus moves, but rather to market demand, and the US manufacturer has more pressing needs with other product developments, which must move to a firmer footing next year. The company still seeks launch orders for the long-range/high-capacity General Electric GE90-powered 777-200X/300X, which must get a green light early in 2000 to allow deliver ies to begin in 2003. In August, Boeing will fly die latest 737 deriv ative, the 737-900,which is cleared for deliver ies to Alaska Airlines in around March 2001. The 767-400ER certification programme, meanwhile, will be completed, to allowr deliver ies of the latest stretch 767 derivative to Delta Air Lines to begin in May. There is continued pressure for Boeing to boost the fortunes of the 757/767 family, with the recent order drought having eroded back logs, necessitating some painful decisions on build rates. Boeing is studying longer-range derivatives, the 757-200X and 767-400ERX, to rejuvenate the programmes, and these plans could be firmed up in the next 12 months. The company will also look to boost the for tunes of the 100-seat 717, deliveries of which have just begun. The type, inherited from McDonnell Douglas, is still not yet assured of a long-term future. Meanwhile, developments in die market for aircraft with fewer than 100 seats continue to make headlines, with industry now seemingly gravitating around diree players: Bombardier, Embraer and Fairchild. Although ATR believes it has a future building a modest number of ATR 42/72 turboprops (30 a year), and BAE Systems aims to continue the 146/Avro RJ line with its RJ-X mid-life update project, further rationali sation appears inevitable. An Embraer/ATR tie-up is the most likely early development, through the acquisition of a stake in the Brazilian company bya French con sortium, including Aerospatiale Matra. Large airliner deliveries, orders and backlogs Note: Delivery based on current production rate forecasts 1,000 Airbus/Boeing deliveries | Airbus Boeing Airbus/Boeing orders/backlog Backlog — Orders BJfStBL GARETHBURGESS 99 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Si 1,500 1,000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 est FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 22 December - 3 January 2000 27
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