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Aviation History
2000
2000 - 0531.PDF
Embraer aims to step up production EMBRAER aims to boost pro duction of its RJ -13 5/145 after a decision by Continental Express to accelerate acquisition of the regional jet with an order for 100 additional aircraft. The Brazilian company will decide within the next 60 days on whether to ramp up production to 16 aircraft a month. "We're at 12 a month and have committed to 14 by the end of 2000. We are now looking at going to 16 within 15 months," says Fred Curado, Embraer executive vice-president. He concedes that "demand for ALMOST 3,000 fighters worth $136.1 billion at today's prices will be procured over the next 10 years, according to the latest world military aircraft forecast from US consultancy the Teal Group. Teal's study, released at the show, reviews the market for Western- and Russian-built fighters with a maximum take-off weight of 9,050kg (20,0001b). Chinese types are not included. In the period 2000-09, 2,932 combat aircraft will be built, says faster deliveries does pose a chal lenge for us". Following Continental's order for another 75 ERJ-145s and 25 ERJ-135s, plus 75 options, total commitments for the two aircraft stand at 995. Firm orders amount to 567 aircraft, comprising402 50- seaters (186 delivered/216 on order) and 165 of the smaller 37- seater, of which 144 are on backlog. Embraer is competing for US regional airline campaigns, includ ing US Airways Express and Atlantic Southeast Airlines. It has just announced the sale of 36 Teal. While the figures look impressive, diey show a decline on the last 10 years in which 4,445-air- craft, worth over $152 billion (in 2000 dollars) were delivered. Teal director-aviation, Richard Aboulafia, says: "Hopefully, pro curement holidays have created a market trough. After several false starts, we expect the market to turn healthy again before the second half of our forecast period. The annual value of fighter production will double by 2005." ERJ- 145s to Mesa, plus 64 options, with deliveries beginning almost immediately. (Continental's new order includes an unannounced deal for 25 ERJ-145s concluded in December. The conversion of another 50 options, plus the 25 ERJ-13 5 orders, doubles die size of the carrier's ERJ-13 5/145 order and will enable it to accelerate by two years the retirement of its turboprop fleet. "We're taking deliver)' of air craft at the rate of 30 a year and we will complete delivery of all 200 jets in 2003, coinciding with the exit of Unless it wins the South Korean F-X competition for up to 90 fight ers, Teal predicts diat Boeing will be the biggest loser by 2009 as clo sure of its AV-8B Flarrier, F-15 Eagle and F/A-18C/D Hornet production lines will reduce its fighter market share from 40% last yeartol6%in2009. Teal's figures assume limited Joint Strike Fighter QSF) deliveries during the period of its study - Boeing is competing against Lockheed Martin for the pro gramme. A big winner could be the Saab/BAE Systems Gripen, if unit costs can be reduced to make the type popular with operators of the nearly 6,000 light combat aircraft in service. All other fighter types available or likely to be available are heavier and more expensive than the Swedish design. Deliveries of die Eurofighter to die four partner nations and prob ably Greece will double FCurope's share of the fighter market during the period. Teal is dismissive of Russian manufacturer's chances in the mar ketplace. With Russia likely to buy few fighters in the foreseeable future, China and India will be . crucial customers for Moscow. 3 the turboprops," says Bruce Kink, (Continental FCxpress marketing director. The carrier has received 57 ERJ-145sand eight -135s. Continental has placed all 25 of its Beech 19()ODs with recently acquired subsidiary carrier (lulfstream Airlines and has found buyers in (Canada and South America for 10 of its 22 remaining Embraer EMB-120 Brasilias. Eight leased ATR 42-500s are due to be returned to lessors by mid-vear and the last of 28 ATR 42-320s by the first quarter of 2003. The last two ATR 72s will go by 2001. • Indonesian air force calls for space weapons ban THE INDONESIAN air force wants a global ban on space-based weapons systems. Speaking at the Millennium Air Power Conference, held in con junction with the Asian Aerospace show, deputy chief of air staff Air Vice Marshal Zeky Ambadar told international air force and industry chiefs: "Before space becomes an arena for the arms race, before putting weapons in space becomes a good alternative for many coun tries, the world needs to come to an agreement clearly and strongly banning space-based weapons." Ambadar says agreements on space usage, such as the 1945 UN Charter, the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems treaty and the 1979 Moon Agreement, are not universally recognised and contain loopholes which can be exploited for weapons use. He says no clear border has been defined at which Air Law ends and Space Law comes into force. Other senior conference dele gates supported the Indonesian position. "It needs to be debated," says Indian air force chief Air (Chief Marshal Anil YashwantTipnis. US Pacific Air Forces (Cdr (Jen Patrick Gamble said these are "certainly" legitimate concerns, which "will be debated at a very high political level internationally". • Teal predicts market for 3,000 fighters over the next 10 years The Gripen could be a major export win tier for Saab/BAE FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 29 February - 6 March 2000 17
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