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Aviation History
2001
2001 - 0030.PDF
mmw AIRFRAMERS No pain in prospect as cycle gently touches bottom MAX KINGSLEY-JONES/ COMMERCIAL AVIATION EDITOR THREE LETTERS and a number have dominated die headlines during die past 12 months: A3XX. And with die go-ahead now given for die aircraft, now officially die A3 80, interest is going to be just as keen in 2001. Meanwhile, large airliner output has gen tly touched die bottom of die current cycle, while regional sales continue to boom. Between diem, Boeing and Airbus delivered around 800 aircraft in 2000, as die current out put cycle made a gende "landing". Deliveries are down 12% on 1999's record tally of 914 air craft - but to put diis into perspective, die 2 000 total is similar to that of two years ago, which was then an all-time output record. The fall in output in 2000 was entirely down to Boeing. With die remaining McDonnell Douglas types cleared from stock and a slow down in 747 output, Boeing's deliveries have fallen by 140 units to 480 aircraft in 2 000. Airbus continues to crank up its production, breaking its own records widi each new year. Around 313 Airbus aircraft were delivered in 2000, and this will continue to rise to around 400 by 2002. Widi Boeing also increasing out put by about 10% to 530 aircraft in 2001 and 2 002, die two firms' combined deliveries should be back at record levels (930 aircraft) in two years. Despite some pessimistic predictions 12 mondis ago, 2000's order tally is expected to be more than one-diird higher than diat of die pre vious year, at more than 1,100 aircraft. With die order intake outstripping production, backlog has grown by about 5% to over 3,250 aircraft, split almost equally between Boeing and Airbus. Boeing regained die sales initiative in 2000 after losing out to Airbus the previous year, and its order tally to the end of November repre sented 55% of the total. The Europeans never theless had a good year, taking around 500 orders. They also devoted huge effort to secur ing enough commitments to launch the A3 80, widi letters of intent for 50 firm orders from six Regional airliner deliveries Data source: Airclaims CASE/manufacturers Note: Delivery based on current production and forecasts 350 [USUI •10 91 *t*4 lull DM* Infainrtan Lt. BARETH BURGESS 01 300 Jets Turboprops 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 est customers worth $10.8 billion (at current list prices), and will be working to convert these to firm contracts during die first half. The 50-aircraft tally equates to the number of A3 80s that Airbus plans to produce annually once output is stabilised, so it will be keen to add more early sales, ensuring a good head start against Boeing's planned 747X Stretch - or any all-new ultra-large design from the Seattle manufacturer. Many questions remain about Airbus' 550- seat airliner programme, but some should be resolved over the next 12 mondis. Airbus will also work towards an engineering design freeze, allowing it to confirm the remarkable perfor mance and seat/km economics promised for the aircraft. Risk-sharing partner agreements also need to be finalised, as will launch commitments for the all-cargo A3XXF version. Airbus, of course, will no longer be a consor tium in 2 001 following its restructuring into an integrated company owned by EADS (80%) and BAE Systems (20%). The move will turn the screw on Boeing to reach the correct deci sion when it considers the launch of the 747X. Several new Airbus and Boeing projects face make or break decisions, including die planned 220-seat A330-500, 717-100X shrink, and a longer-range 757-200X. Meanwhile, flight- testing of the 380-seat A340-600 is scheduled to begin in May, and production will start later in the year of Airbus' A3 2 0 "regional derivative" -rhel07-seatA318. Boeing will begin deliveries of the latest 737 model, the -900, to Alaska Airlines in April. The MDC era will also finally end with die handing over of two remaining MD-1 lFs to Lufthansa Cargo during die first quarter. The regional jet market continues to boom and two new derivatives were launched in 2000 - the stretched Bombardier CRJ900 and Embraer's intermediate-sized ERJ-140. Also, a shake-out saw two programmes killed off dur ing 2000 as Fairchild Dornier cancelled its 44- seat 42 8JET and Bombardier dropped plans for a new 100-seater, the BRJ-X. Regional jets chalked up over 670 orders in 2000 (a 27% increase on 1999), while output increased by afurther 30% to280 aircraft. With their burgeoning orderbooks, the regional manufacturers are expected to deliver more than 300 jets in 2001. Included in diis tally will be Bombardier's first 70-seat CRJ700s, and the initial ERJ-140s. More orders at the high end of die regional market are likely in the coming year, as Embraer and Fairchild strive to take market share. Both programmes have large backlogs, but with leas ing company and engine supplier GE the biggest customer for each, there is currendy an ominous absence of airline customers. Meanwhile, BAE Systems needs to move its Avro RJ-X onto a firmer footing with more launch customers to take it beyond die current two orders and six options. The prototype is due to start testing in 2 001. Turboprop production continues its decline, widi just over 100 new aircraft delivered in 2 000 - litde more than a quarter of the total regional market. Only ATR, Bombardier and Raytheon remain serious players in the new-buy pro- 28 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 2 - 8 January 2001
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