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Aviation History
2001
2001 - 0287.PDF
DISPLAY ADVERTISEMENT SALES UK and EUROPE Display Advertising Enquiries +44(20186523315 Display Advertising Fax +44(20)86528981 Group Advertisement Director Richard Thiele +44 (20) 8652 3319 Advertisement Manager Simon Lees +44 (20) 8652 3904 Business Services Co-ordinator Lisa Devlin +44 (20) 8652 3315 Advertisement Production Display/Classified Howard Mason +44(20)8652 3267 UK, IRELAND, BENELUX, IBERIA. GREECE. THE MIDDLE EAST and ISRAEL, AFRICA GERMANY, SCANDINAVIA and EASTERN EUROPE Sales Manager Shawn Buck +44 (20) 8652 4998 Sales Manager Warren McEwan +44 (20) 8652 3316 Sales Executive Toni Howitt +44 (20) 8652 4986 FRANCE and SWITZERLAND Sales Director France Pierre Mussard Tel +33 (1) 53 21 88 00 Reed Business Information France, 24. rue de Milan. 75009 Paris, France. Fax +33 (1) 53 21 88 01 ITALY Managing Director Roberto Laureri Tel +39 (02) 236 2500 Laureri Associates SRL, Via Vallate 43.20131 Milano, Italy Fax +39 (02) 236 4411 E-mail media@laureriassociates.it NORTH AMERICA Vice-president US Sales John Tidy Tel +1 (949) 7561057 Reed Business Information, 3700 Campus Drive, Suite 203, Newport Beach, CA 92660. Fax +1 (949) 756 2514 Vice-president, North America Robert Hancock Tel+1(703)836 7444 Sales Manager Chris Sweet Tel+11703)8363719 Reed Business Information, 333 N Fairfax Street, Suite 301, Alexandria, VA 22314, USA. Fax +1 (703) 836 7446 US Advertisement Production Jackie Peart Schnell Publishing.Two Rector St,26th Floor, New York, NY 10006 Tel+1 (212)791 4297 Fax+1 (212)791 4313 ASIA Singapore Grace Wong Tel+65 434 3303 Reed Asian Publishing Singapore, No. 1 Temasek Avenue, #17-01 MilleniaTower, Singapore 039192. 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Fax +852 2976 0706 COMMENT AUSTRALASIA Sales Manager Simon Webster Reed Business Publishing, 18 Salmon Port Melbourne, Victoria 3207, Austra Business Manager Alison Weller Tel+61 (3)92457350 Street, Fax+61 (3) 9245 7511 ia Tel+44 (20) 8652 4438 CLASSIFIED & RECRUITMENT Advertising Enquiries +44(20)8652 3811 E-mail simon.rogers@rbi.co.uk Advertising Fax +44(20)8652 4802 Group Advertisement Director Ian Burke +44 (20) 8652 8228 Group Ad Manager Katherine Bellamy +44 (20) 8652 4336 Advertisement Manager Patrick Williams +44 (20) 8652 3811 International Sales Executives EmmaCossar +44(20)86524322 Simon Morton +44(20)86524898 Simon Rogers +44(20)86524896 Classified Asia/Pacific Grace Wong +65 434 3303 Classified North Arnericafins Sweet +1 (703)8363719 Publisher Allan Winn +44(20)8652 3882 A^fl Air Transport Intelligence (ATI), Flight International's stela J-\J J online service at www.rati.com, contains the full text of •"•"——• Flight International ana Airline Business since 1996. The full text of the magazines can also be found on the following online ser vices: Lexis-Nexis, Dialogue, FT Profile, IAC and Reuters. Details from: tel: +44 (20) 8652 8721 .Published by Reed Business Information, Quadrant House, The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey, SM2 5AS, UK Flight International is sold subject to the following conditions: namely, that it is not, without the written consent of the publishers first given, lent, re-sold, hired out or in any unauthorised cover by way of trade: or affixed to, or as part of, any publication or advertising, literary or pictorial matter whatsoever The publishers of Flight International ate prepared to accept unsolicited material, but only on the understanding that such material is submitted wholly at the risk of the provider, and that the publishers cannot guarantee the receipt, safekeeping or return of non-commissioned work in any format, including manuscripts, digital data, photographic prints andyartfparencies Flight International' is a registered trademark of Reed Business Information Ltd. © 2000 Reed Business Information Ltd. THE SOURCE ROARING SUCCESS in one particular sector of commercial air transport has spodighted a problem which has simmered for years - die industry-wide shortage of quality pilots. The sector concerned is die European no-frills airlines, where die two most successful participants, Ireland's Ryanair and the UK's easyjet, have just launched the kind of pilot employment packages which those who joined diem a few years ago would not have dreamt of. Easy- Jet's hub is London Luton, just a stone's throw from Ryanair's main hub at London Stansted. Ryanair shares Stansted with two other vigorous no-frills operators, KLM-owned Buzz and British Airways' Go, so^it is not difficult to predict who gets hit first by die shockwave. •iBut this phenome non affects all sectors of die market, in that die new offers could even attract pilots from the majors, particularly some flight crew tired of waiting on endless seniority lists for die chance of a command, and it would drive up pilot remuneration across die European Union. , The low-cost sector has not invented diis state of affairs, but its success and consequent rapid expansion have accelerated the predictable arrival of a severe pilot shortage which most air lines appear to have been studiously ignoring. The,only explanation for this head-in-die-sand attitude is that carriers thought that, as in the past, diey might be saved by a recession. Economists, however, disagree over whether there will be a recession at all, and if there is the optimists diink it would be a relatively mild one. This goes further than Europe. At last April's Flight International Crew Management Con ference in Barcelona, Spain, Boeing's forecasts of pilot shortages were examined against a back ground of evidence diat fewer young people are attracted by the idea of working as an airline pilot. Boeing predicts diat widi die world com mercial transport fleet of about 14,000 doubling to 28,000 by 2018, there will be a world shortage of pilots by 2005 and a severe shortfall in supply by 2008. Perhaps Boeing was being optimistic. Ryanair's and easyjet's recent offers will pre dictably create a buzz at this year's Crew Manage ment Conference (London, 5-6 February), by which time the early effects will be visible. One of the arguments for doing nothing about planning for flight crew supply has always been that there are more pilots with commercial licences than there are jobs. For jet and public transport turboprop operators, however, that argu ment does not wash. As in every profes sion there are aircrew who have capacity in reserve for emergen cies. Among die self-selected pilots, however, are some who scraped dieir qualifica tions by hard work. However admirable die efforts and dedica tion of the latter group, they will cost die air lines more at all points in type and recurrent training, and may not perform well enough under pressure. Most owners of today's high performance transport aircraft operating in progressively more demanding air traffic control environments know that this is not an option. Meanwhile, die supply of military trained pilots reduces in absolute terms and die air trans port industry relendessly expands. There is only a limited number of young people who can afford to sponsor their own quality pilot train ing, and research indicates that today's young are less inclined to mortgage dieir lives for a job which is not guaranteed. If an airline has not set up some form of pilot supply system either by itself or with other carriers, it may soon look up to find that it has missed die bus, and the penalty will be a halt to expansion or even a forced reduction in services. And at die higher end of die market, where airlines need command experience to replace those who retire or those head-hunted by the operators right at the top of the supply chain, die poaching from smaller airlines gathers pace until it reaches the flying schools, whose instructors are sucked into the airlines, killing off the ultimate source. • See Headlines pi 1 "If an airline has not set up some form of pilot supply system... it may soon look up to find that it has missed the bus" FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 30 January - 5 February 2001
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