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Aviation History
2001
2001 - 2285.PDF
Diary of a space blip 2000 January X-33 delayed 18 months by issues involving the composite fuel tanks. Japan's NASDA kills H2 launcher, HOPE-X space- plane and satellite projects. March Iridium and Globalstar hit by slow business growth. Iridium declared bankrupt with $4.4 billion debts. April ICO shake-up puts back Delta III launches. May ICO and Teledesic to merge after $1.2 billion bankruptcy rescue. June Starsem and Eurockot form alliance. Hubble space telescope successor faces delay. July Deadlock threatens space access. Boeing jobs cull after launch service downturn. Funding woes force Roton wait. August Composite tank leak delays X-33 by two years. September X-34 faces delay after review. Lack of money is threat to Euro satellite research. Delay prompts International Space Station rethink. Orbcomm latest satellite operator in crisis. October Beal Aerospace launcher bid collapses. November Lorals finds $500 million to keep Globalstar satellite in orbit. December Delta III hit by orders dearth. 2001 January Arianespace faces first losses despite orders boom. February NASA admits ISS costs may reach $95 billion. March President Bush orders ISS budget cuts. X-33 and X-34 cancelled. The Skybridge consortium reassesses its plans to set up a $6 billion 40-satellite system. dual satellites ones on Ariane 5s". If the Above: premium rates continue to rise, and assum- The ing that satellite reliability improves - or at launcher least gets no worse - things should look a industry is lot better for space insurance. suffering Mike Blackwell of space consultants SBi, from too believes that the blip is just a "shadow on much the futurescape". The problem, he says, competition largely relates to overconfidence in tele- for too few communications innovations and the launches refusal to acknowledge that the market will decide when it needs new developments, and when it is ready to pay for them. Until the market makes those decisions, there will be no returns. "There has also been an overcapacity in space infrastructure, including launchers, satellites data and communications capacity," says Blackwell. There has also been a reaction to cyclic economic trends in space nations. In these days of "mature" space, it is often forgot ten that the space sector still has two significant components: supply-led politics and demand-pull markets. The political component, including international commercial projects, has its roots in technology policies in a limited number of countries and "far outweighs market demand", says Blackwell. "This will change over time in reaction to economic upticks, with all that entails for market per ception - but not before 2004-05." Until then, the market will be compara tively flat. There will be change when the revival appears. Growth is expected in Earth observation as a demand for climate change information kicks in, and in a convergence between hand-held technolo gies, communications and Earth observa tion, he says. • www.flightinternational.com FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 19-25 JUNE 2001 77
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