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Aviation History
2001
2001 - 2489.PDF
D-aric rotrY^cnof^ix/Q In an open letter to Harry Stonecipher, Margot Wallstrom, European commis sioner for the environment, makes clear her concerns: "The question is whether a one-hour time saving on a transatlantic flight is worth a significant increase in C02 emissions contributing to climate change. In my view this environmental price is not worth paying...Instead of building even faster planes, your industry should work towards improved environmental perfor mance, dramatically improving the effi ciency of aircraft and developing aircraft powered by alternatives to fossil fuel." Seeing green Thirty years ago, there was furious debate about the effect that the high-flying, supersonic Aerospatiale/British Aerospace Concorde would have on the environ ment. If Boeing really intends to sell as many sonic cruisers as it says, then it it must ensure as soon as possible that its environmental argument is watertight. • 25 » 747 and larger Intermediate twin-aisle Single-aisle Smaller regional jets (below 90 seats) FLIGHT luilniiuill distribution by category distribution by function FORECAST NEW AIRCRAFT DEMANDS Boeing predicts a sonic future Boeing's sonic cruiser concept is so new that it does not figure in the com pany's 2001 market forecast, published during the Paris air show. Boeing pre dicts demand for 23,500 new aircraft, worth $1.7 trillion, over the next 20 years. Of these, 5,100 aircraft will be replacements, and the other 18,500 will cover air travel growth (see graphic 1), which Boeing expects will equate to an annual global increase of 4.7%. However the manufacturer con cedes that the sonic cruiser's arrival will affect aircraft numbers, as its higher speed will allow greater utilisa tion, thereby in theory reducing the number of new aircraft needed in cer tain market segments. "Existing fleets will continue to serve short- and medium-range markets, and while the sonic cruiser will not stop demand for other products, it will prob ably reshape the market," says John Roundhill, Boeing's vice president- marketing new airplane programme. Boeing has stuck to its guns with its forecast for 747 and larger aircraft, believing that the airlines will require a little over 1,100 aircraft through to 2020 with most demand for smaller aircraft. The fundamental driver behind Boeing's market forecast is its "frag mentation" theory, ie that the industry is moving towards a point-to-point ser vice philosophy across all networks to provide the shortest trip times. Graphic 2 shows Boeing's thinking on fragmen tation with the sonic cruiser in play. 'The sonic cruiser will change the competitive dynamic," says Boeing vice president for marketing Randy Baseler. "Direct flights flown by conventional aircraft will retain an advantage against a combination of a feeder flight to a hub to connect to a sonic cruiser flight. Conventional twin- aisle aircraft will still be delivered." As the markets mature direct sonic cruiser flights will replace conventional airliners on hub bypass services. Yesterday: Connecting service through hub Today: Nonstop service, bypassing hub Future: Connecting service to hub for 'sonic cruiser' flight Trip time: 11h 20m Future: Nonstop ' sonic cruiser' flight, bypassing hub FLIGHT IIMHIIIHIII www.fliqhtinternational.com FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 39 JULY 2001 35
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