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Aviation History
2001
2001 - 3638.PDF
•ectory: civil engines deliveries next year to fall to between 350 and 400, as compared with the best-case pre-September estimate of 520. Worse still, its mid-term forecasts are believed to be as low as 250 in 2003, or fewer than half the 522 now expected for delivery this year. Not surprisingly, the airline picture is extremely bleak. Figures released by IATA show passenger traffic on member airlines' international scheduled services declined 17% in September, compared to the same month last year. The statistics revealed car riers had been unable to park aircraft quickly enough, and load factors fell from 78% in August to 69% in September. The picture is far worse for North American car riers, which saw passenger and freight traf fic tumble 30%. Asian and European carri ers saw a 12% drop overall, but IATA adds "carriers with a high US component in their services fared worse". As ever, the best barometer of the industry's general health remains the status of the stored jetliner fleet. A quick glance at data compiled for Flight International by Airclaims makes sober reading. The day after the attacks, the first of 12 737-700s from bankrupt Midway Airlines was ferried to Goodyear, Arizona, where the total fleet was assembled within the next three days. By the 15th, the flood gates had opened - 14 aircraft ranging from Continental Boeing MD-82s to American Airlines Boeing 767-200ERs fly ing into storage on that day alone. The desert fleet continues to grow, with more than 50 arriving at Goodyear, Marana, Mojave and Victorville over a three-day period at the start of last month. Analysts believe the final mothballed fleet tally could top 2,000 - up from the 1,300 stored at the start of the year. For future engine programmes all this means an inevitable slowdown. Even the long-term Boeing sonic cruiser effort, which is more likely to enter service in 2008 than 2006, is feeling the effect. Engine makers, which were studying 777 powerplant derivatives for the optimum solution, are believed to be examining new designs to meet the transonic speed requirements of the fast transport. Dominant position GE is also once more believed to be seeking a dominant position on the programme having established exclusivity on the longer range 777-300ER with the GE90- 110/115B. The shelving of the -200LR, although disappointing for the engine manufacturer, is not considered a massive setback in view of the fact that only three firm orders had been placed. The crisis does little for P&W, which faces growing pressure to expand its prod uct line or suffer the consequences. The company's declining income from the once-ubiquitous JT8D is set to take another NOTES ON TABLES Flight International's 2001 Civil Engine Directory (see P67) builds on the major revisions initiated with the Military Engine Directory published on 8-14 May. These were introduced to refocus the directories in two new directions. Firstly, the revised format divides the directories into simpler military and civil groups, rather than the generic turbofan and turboshaft/turboprop division of previous years. Secondly, it allows more space to be dedicated to updates on a programme-by-programme and company-by-company basis. The list includes engines in production or advanced development, as well as established powerplants out of production, but still in widespread service and/or undergoing upgrades. For clarity, Chinese manufacturers have once again been grouped under the AVIC banner. plunge with the grounding of hundreds of older Boeing 727s, 737s and McDonnell Douglas DC-9s in the wake of the attack. Slow progress continues with the PW6000 for the Airbus A318, while higher- thrust study applications are mainly restricted to evolving solutions for the sonic cruiser, collaborating with GE on the GP7000 for the A380, and curing the annoying surge snags on the PW4000. Closer collaboration with its Canadian sib ling is also likely, particularly on the Advanced Technology Fan Integrator, which paves the way for the PW800 family of gear-driven turbofans spanning the 10,000-19,0001b- (45-85kN) thrust gap between the two companies. P&WC is meanwhile busier than ever with a wide range of new turbine projects for heli copters, turboprops and business jets, including the newly won deal to power the Dassault Falcon 7X with the PW307A. The shelving of the Boeing 777- 200LR is not a major setback for the GE90 Future developments R-R's long-term developments are focused for the moment on sonic cruiser, potential supersonic business jet projects and the Trent 900 for the A380, the latter effort bolstered by confirmation of a £250 mil lion ($363 million) UK Government loan. The same loan, approved by the European Commission on 30 October, also supports the Trent 600 development which is expected to build on Trent 500 technology for future 747 developments. Elsewhere in Europe, Snecma is explor ing new commercial possibilities outside its vastly successful CFM link with GE, by sounding out partnerships with NPO Saturn, Rybinsk and other Russian compa nies on development of a regional engine dubbed the SM146. The engine could chase a joint Boeing/ Ilyushin/Sukhoi regional aircraft project timed for around 2004. Honeywell's regional ambitions con tinue to be wedded to BAE Systems' RJX and its AS900 engine. The AS907 version is also flying on Bombardier's Continental business jet. • CIVIL ENGINE DIRECTORY STARTS P67 66 13-19 NOVEMBER 2001 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL www.flightinternational.com
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