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Aviation History
2001
2001 - 3667.PDF
ULL LIST OF READER SERVICES TISER CONTACTS - PS1 EDITORIAL +44 (20) 8652 3842 Quadrant House, The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey SM2 SAS, UK Fax +44 (20) 8652 3840 email fligMMernational@rbi.co.uk Editor Murdo Morrison +44 (20) 8652 4395 murdo.morrison@rbi.co.uk Editor's PA Debra Warburton +44 (20) 8652 3835 debra.warburton@rbi.co.uk News Editor Andrew Chuter +44 (20) 8652 3843 andy.chuter@rbi.co.uk Deputy News Editor Emma Keliy +44 (20) 8652 3096 emma.kelty@rbi.co.uk Features Editor DeeDee Doke +44 (20) 8652 3852 deedee.doke@rbi.co.uk Commercial Aviation Editor Max Kingsley-Jones +44 (20) 8652 3825 max.kingsleyjones@rbi.co.uk Defence Aviation Editor Stewart Penney +44 (20) 8652 3834 stewart.penney@rbi.co.uk Operations/Safety Editor Oavid Learmount +44 (20) 8652 3845 david.learmount@rbi.co.uk Business Editor Alexander Campbell +44 (20) 8652 3990 alexander.campbeli@rbi.co.uk Business & General Aviation Editor Kate Sarsfield +44 (20) 8652 3885 (maternity leave) Business & General Aviation Reporter Justin Wastnage •44 (20) 8652 3U3justin.wastnage@rbi.co.uk Spaceflight Correspondent Tim Furniss +44 (1237) 471960 tim@spaceport.co.uk Editorial Assistant Francesca Everett +44 (20) 8652 3842 (maternity leave) EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST Paris Correspondent Simon Warburton +33 (1) 42 33 6710 simon.warburton@rbi.co.uk Israel Correspondent Arie Egozi +972(3)9671155 Middle East Correspondent Gerald Butt +357 2 771967 gbutt@spidernet.com.cy AMERICAS Washington DC Office Fax +1 (703) 836 8344 Americas Editor Graham Warwick +1 (703) 836 3448 graham.wamick@rbi.co.uk East Coast Editor Paul Lewis +1 (703) 836 3084 jpaul.lewis@rbi.co.uk West Coast Editor Guy Norris +1(949)252 8971 Fax+1 (949) 252 8972 guy.norris@rbi.co.uk ASIA/PACIFIC Singapore Office Fax +653386171 Regional Managing Editor Nicholas lonides +65 4343311 Fax+65 338 6171 nicholas.ionides@rbi.co.uk Deputy Asia Editor Andrew Doyle +65 434 3309 andrew.doyle@rbi.co.uk Regional Reporter David Fullbrook +65 434 3314 david.fultbrook@rbi.co.uk Australia Civil Aviation Correspondent Paul Phelan +61(7)40532791 Fax+61 (7)40533003 pdphelan@optusnet.com.au Australia Military Aviation Correspondent Peter La Franchi +61 (0) 419 246 620 Fax +61 (2) 62312795 nutka@ozemail.com.au COMMENT ADVERTISING UK S Europe +44 (20) 8652 3319 France & Switzerland Tel +33 (1) 53 2188 00 Italy Tel+39 (02) 236 2500 Singapore Tel +65 434 3303 Hong Kong Tel +852 29651542 Australasia Tel +61 (3) 9245 7350 North America Tel +1 (703) 836 7444 Classified S recruitment +44 (20) 8652 3811 SUBSCRIPTIONS +44 (1444) 445454 rbi.subscriptions@rbi.co.uk THE FLIGHT COLLECTION kim.heam@rbi.co.uk WWW.FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL.COM m\ 1 Air Transport Intelligence (ATI), Flight International'ssistec online service at www.rati.com, contains the full text of Flight i International anA Airline Business since 1996. Full text of the magazines can also be found online with Lexis-Nexis, Dialogue, FT Profile, IAC and Reuters. Editor Kieran Daly +44 (20) 8652 3837 REED iSSf BUSINESS 'Hy INFORMATION WBPA V INTERNATIONAL Survival of the fittest European airlines should think carefully about how they are going to tackle their fight for survival as they struggle to avoid Sabena's fate Death certificates draw a clear distinction between 'cause of death' and 'immediate cause' - a long-running disease may weaken a person before a sudden infection kills them. Similarly, although Sabena finally foundered as a result of the attacks on 11 September, the deceased had been critically ill for some time, suffering from ailments such as high employ ment costs, increased competition and more recently an economic slowdown. While they have grudgingly given over treasured steel, coal, defence and communi cations industries to the private sector, European governments have tended to hold on to their flag carriers. Even when the airline was nominally privatised, it generally remained hedged around with ownership restrictions preventing a foreign takeover, and was lovingly tended with subsidies and infor mal government help. This support ensured that the crash, when it came, would be more It would be wrong to blame the situation entirely on the regulators severe and more difficult to deal with. But predictions that only three European mainstream carriers will be left in 18 months' time are too pessimistic. It is highly unlikely that 11 airlines will collapse before summer 2003. In the same way, the network of owner ship restrictions and bilateral agreements will prevent cross-border mergers, and will take longer than a year and a half to untangle. The purpose of the restrictions was to prevent mergers - on the tacit assumption that the state would always be there to make good the losses of the failing carrier. As it did, for many -Air France among them - until the losses became too great and the anti-subsidy laws too severe. J\low consolidation - whether by cost cutting, capacity cutting, job cutting, merger, takeover, subcontracting to other air lines or downright failure - is gathering momentum. The pace of consolidation now depends entirely on the governments, according to British Airways chief executive Rod Eddington, who suspects that, although the European Commission is now fully behind the policy, national governments such as Switzerland and New Zealand are still exerting themselves to support their own carriers. But it would be wrong to blame the present situation entirely on the regulators. European airlines have become extraordinarily inefficient over the last 40 years, many managing the difficult trick of simultaneously overcharging their pas sengers and failing to make enough money for their shareholders. The ease with which the low-cost carriers undercut them, and the speed with which they have cut overheads showed that there was much to trim. And while US officials blame European governments for slowing consolidation by protecting their national airlines, the US airlines themselves have often opposed alliances such as American Airlines/BA which would threaten their own narrow interests. Competition has always been difficult - entry costs to the airline industry are high. Pilots have always been in short supply, due to their lengthy and expensive training, and until recently cuts in air forces after the end of the Cold War were pushing down the numbers of ex-military pilots further. This gave aircrew unions considerable bargaining power, which they used to impose restrictive scope clauses and seniority regulations. And, like other state- owned or protected industries, airlines were shielded from the cost-cutting pressures of the market. They now have the motivation to learn from the low-cost sector and other industries forced to become more efficient. This is not to encourage them to cut thousands more jobs - this would ruin morale and runs the risk of losing essential know-how. Nor should they follow the strategy of mak ing profits by neglecting safety. Some airlines admit they put more hours on their airframes in less time than other airlines; their pilots are worked up to the legal maximum flying hours; and they have cut cabin crew to the absolute minimum. With the emphasis on safety and security now stronger than ever, this is a bad idea, commercially if not practically. Astronaut John Glenn is supposed to have said that, while waiting for launch, he would remember that he was sitting on top of an enormous quantity of explosive fuel, controlled by half a million safety-critical components - each one supplied by the cheapest bidder. Such an approach to airline security may have cost thousands of lives on 11 September. There is room for more efficiency everywhere, but cutting staff is not always the best way to achieve it. Everyone with an interest in the industry, from governments to the boardroom to the flight line, should bear this in mind. SEE BUSINESS P25 www.flightinternational.com FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 20-26 NOVEM BER 2001 3
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