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Aviation History
2002
2002 - 0026.PDF
and expected to be around 1.5% in 2002. Barring any further catastrophes, analysts believe recovery is at least 18 months to two years away. The US domestic network has been the worst affected by the attacks, and despite cutting capacity by 20-30% the airlines are still flying too many empty seats. Boeing calculates that as a result of ticket-price dis counts, US airlines' break-even load factor post-11 September is a massive 88%. But the carriers are only averaging 61%. Clearly, if traffic doesn't start to recover quickly, more capacity cuts will be necessary. The signs are that, at least over the festive period, traffic had begun to improve, with American Airlines, for example, having pro jected load factors "as high as the mid-80s". Although the airline said there were "encouraging signs that traffic is returning", it warned that it was "still losing millions of dollars every day because we're still selling seats at incredibly low prices". The fall in demand forced Boeing to re evaluate its commitment to the 717. But the slow-selling twin jet has been given another stay of execution with production to continue at a reduced rate. The fortunes of the latest Airbus narrowbody, the A318, due to start test-flights this month, have also suffered, as early customers such as British Airways and International Lease Finance seek to defer orders. Airbus will be hoping that there is no decline in the industry's long-term confi dence, as it endeavours to build on its 100- REGIONAL AIRLINER DELIVERIES ] Jets J Turboprops 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 aircraft orderbook for the A380, and com pletes the design of the 550-seater. Similarly, Boeing will be keen to establish a clearer picture of airlines' future long-haul requirements as it works to define its Sonic Cruiser transonic airliner design ahead of formal launch commitment. Regional sector The regional market has been far less affec ted by the collapse, and, say analysts SH&E, US regional jet operations suffered only a 2.4% cutback after 11 September. Last year, around 420 regional aircraft were delivered, of which 80% were regional jets and the remainder turbo- props. Output is expected to fall by about a fifth next year, with the mix between the two categories staying the same. It is in the regional sector where most of the action will be this year, specifically in the 70- to 100-seat market. Bombardier will work to complete flight-testing of its CRJ900 model, Embraer is scheduled to hand over the first example of its new 170 model to launch customer Crossair, and Fairchild Dornier will roll out and fly the 728JET. But BAE Systems will wind up production of its 146/RJ model after 20 years. As the output figures show, the turbo prop market continues to decline, as the demand for propeller-driven airliners slows to a trickle. Although there will still be niches where only a turboprop can work, it seems unlikely that any major new FLIGHT - M BROWN 2001 •t t-- *- t CM 5 s W 117 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002est developments will be forthcoming in this sector as the availability of cheap, young, second-hand examples limits the market for new sales. This has been underlined by the fact that Raytheon has all but ceased production of the ubiquitous 19-seat Beech 1900D, leaving just ATR and Bombardier building turboprops. Efforts to boost the fortunes of Russia's airliner industry took a positive turn last year, with state funding being approved for the lease of indigenously produced aircraft to the region's airlines. Whether this will enable production rates of newer genera tion types such as the Ilyushin 11-96, Tupolev Tu-204, and Tu-334 to achieve economically feasible levels could become clearer this year. Defence The fight is on for European manufacturers to secure scant fighter exports STEWART PENNY / DEFENCE EDITOR O ctober's selection of Lockheed Martin to develop its F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is likely to deter mine the shape of the defence aerospace business for the fore seeable future. If all goes to plan, the first JSFs will be handed over towards the end of the decade. Over 3,000 will eventually be produced, making the project by far the most costly fighter programme in history. As the USA tries to involve as many international partners in the JSF as it can, its European competitors, Dassault, Eurofighter, and Saab/BAE Systems, are aware that they need to score some sales successes - or the export future for their products, the Rafale, Typhoon and Gripen respectively, will be bleak. This battle is likely to be hottest in the first half of this year, as a number of countries, including Italy and the Netherlands, are persuaded to sign up for JSF systems development and 24 1-7 JANUARY 2002 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL www.flightinternational.com
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