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Aviation History
2002
2002 - 0516.PDF
ASIAN AEROSPACE 2002 October 2003, after recently deferring its first delivery by nine months. Leahy points out that Boeing has strug gled to secure customers for its rival 777- 200LR, and has delayed the project by 18 months. It meanwhile faces the prospect of losing its only customer to date, EVA Airways, which has re-opened the bidding for its ultra-long-haul requirement. Avoiding ETOPS "Range is only one part of the attraction of the A340-500," says Leahy. "Independent surveys consistently show that Asian trav ellers prefer to fly in four-engine aircraft." He says operators can also avoid "the com plexities and uncertainties of flying under extreme ETOPS [extended twin-engine operations) conditions". The stretched A340-600 offers signifi cantly greater capacity than the -500, and is being pitched as a replacement for older 747-400s, many of which are operated by Asian airlines. The 380-seater competes directly with the similarly sized twin- engine 777-300ER, which is due to enter service in late 2003. Leahy believes many Asian carriers are "at the point" of consider ing options for replacing their 747-400s, and thinks this market will be split evenly between A340-600- and A380-sized aircraft. Customers for the A340-600 in the region to date include Cathay Pacific Air ways, which is taking three on lease from International Lease Finance (ILFC), and China Eastern. Cathay plans to operate its aircraft on the transpolar route between Hong Kong and New York. "The A340-600 liberates 747 operators from the high running costs of an ageing aircraft, and allows for a superior profit- generating balance between passenger and cargo revenues," says Leahy. "It provides a significant payload increase for airlines operating A340-300, 777-200ER or equiva lent equipment, and offers flexibility of operation, to overcome traffic congestion and benefit from optimum routeings." While the three-class, 555-seat A380 is advertised as delivering around a 17% reduction in ASK costs, compared with the 416-seat 747-400, Leahy says the A340-600 can provide not only a 4-5% lower ASK costs, but a 12% reduction in tonne-kilo metre outgoings, as the aircraft can carry five more lower deck cargo containers. Boeing's product strategy is built on the twin pillars of fragmentation and a large market niche which it sees has opened between the A340-600 and the A380-800. Dubbed by Boeing as the "220-seat gap" it is occupied by the 365-seat 777-300/300ER at the lower end, the 747-400/400ER at 416 seats in the middle and, possibly, the long-envisaged 747X with capacity for up to 522. Boeing still forecasts a requirement of around 1,010 new aircraft in the 747- 400/400ER and 747X category above 400 seats in the next 20 years. Below this, it sees the 777 fighting the A330 and A340 for a market of around 2,420. Airbus, for its part, sees around 2,270 deliveries in the 300- to 500-seat market over a similar period, while also remaining confident of a 500-seater-plus market of 1,535 aircraft. Boeing now positions its 747 and 111 families together as a long-range "dynamic duo", and presents data to support claims that they represent the "preferred" solu tion. Net orders for 747-400s (1989-2001) and 777-200/300 (1995 to 2001) are 1,223, versus 296 for the A340-200/300/500/600 between 1993 and 2001. Although obvi ously ignoring the A330-200, which it por trays as more of a 767-300ER/400ER com petitor, the figures also show a backlog of 278 for the Boeing types versus 84 for the Airbus quads. In deliveries, Boeing also claims a three to one lead for the 777 over the A340 family, with 261 against 124 from 1995-1999, and 116 to 41 for 2000-2001. Similar operating costs Leahy rejects any suggestion that the 777- 200LR/300ER family will be more attrac tive to airlines in terms of direct operating costs than the A340-500/600 because the former have only two engines. "The oper ating costs for their propulsion systems are similar," he says. He points to the ETOPS restrictions still facing the 777, particularly on transpacific routes. Though inflight engine shutdowns are rare, a twinjet is obliged to land at the nearest suitable alter nate in the event of a failure, whereas a quad-jet can often continue to its destina tion on its remaining three engines. Leahy also says the 777's inability to fly Flight testing over mountain ranges such as the of the A340- Himalayas in the event of an engine shut- 500, which is down means the Boeing twinjet may have now the to take a longer route on flights between longest range cities such as London and Bangkok, airliner flying, Meanwhile, Airbus lacks a twinjet in the kicked off 777-300 size category for short- and med- lastweek ium-haul intra-Asian flights. But Leahy believes the A340-600 can be used prof itably on such routes, which are typically 5-6h in duration. "The A340-600 has very good short-range performance as well as long-range," he says. The A340-500/600 firm orderbook stands at 62 aircraft ordered by nine customers. "1 think we are about to see a big influx of orders for the A340-600 now," Leahy adds. Development of the 777-300ER is press ing on swiftly with roll-out in October and first flight in January. Roll-out of the first - 200LR is still scheduled for October 2004, with Boeing remaining committed, at least publicly, to the programme. Nonetheless, with only three orders (from EVA) in the bag, and rumours flying over their fate, the future remains uncertain for this project. Uncertain market Some potential buyers of the ultra-long- range A340-500 and 777-200LR, particularly major leasing companies such as ILFC, have decided not to place orders because they believe the aircraft will apply only to certain niche markets, which would affect their long-term residual value. Leahy says, how ever, that the A340-500 would be a rela tively inexpensive addition to a fleet of - 600s (and by implication the 777-200LR to a fleet of -300ERs) given the extremely high level of commonality between the models. "There is an advantage in pushing the range envelope [from the A340-600]," adds Leahy. The 747-400ER/ERF, meanwhile, plods towards first flight in July for the passenger version and September for the freighter. Both provide building blocks for a possible -400QLR "quiet" variant with greater range and capacity in mid-decade, and possibly the foundations for the 747X. Airlines will be briefed about the -400QLR around the time of the 2002 Asian Aerospace show (26 February-3 March), and Boeing is expected to finalise details of the "quiet" package for future deliveries by mid-year. • 64 19-25 FEBRUARY 2002 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL www.flightinternational.com
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