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Aviation History
2002
2002 - 2301.PDF
OW REPORT FORECAST Boeing stays glum on large aircraft US manufacturer sticks to belief that size of large-airliner market will continue fall, but Airbus likely to disagree In its latest 20-year forecast, Boeing is committed to its route fragmenta tion argument and has again revised downwards the size of the large-air liner market. Its overall long-term outlook remains bullish despite the current crisis, with total demand estimated at 23,900 aircraft, worth almost $1.8 trillion - slightly up on the 2001 forecast of 23,500 units. The US manufacturer's forecast for aircraft that are Boeing 747- sized and larger (carrying more than 400 passengers) has dropped to below 1,000 units, compared to 1,100 in 2001. "We put demand at around 950 aircraft, which is 4% of the total market over 20 years," says Randy Baseler, vice president of marketing at Boeing. The figure is down 14% because Boeing sees increasing evidence that route frag mentation will drive demand for smaller aircraft as airlines fly more point-to-point services and bypass congested hubs. Baseler sees the majority of air craft required in the large category being in the 400-500 seat sector with demand estimated at about 390 units. The size of the 500-plus seat sector is put at 330 aircraft. "About 260 large freighters will also be needed," adds Baseler. Of these, around 170 will be in the larger of the two size categories. Airbus has not published a fore cast since 2000 as last year's was dropped following the US terrorist attacks. Airbus vice-president mar ket forecast Adam Brown says that the 2002 outlook is being finalised and will be published in Sep tember. "There will be no substan tial shift in our forecast for very large aircraft," says Brown. In the last forecast, this stood at 1,240 passenger aircraft and a further 300 freighters. Notable by its absence in the Boeing forecast is an estimate of demand for high-speed airliners, such as the Sonic Cruiser. "We esti mate demand by aircraft category, but for the Sonic Cruiser we need to look at demand by passenger type to determine demand for the speed premium," says Baseler. "We still have to figure out the value of speed," he adds. Boeing predicts that 57% of the 23,900 aircraft delivered over the next 20 years will be in the single- aisle category (such as 717/737/ 757s); 21% in the twin-aisle cate gory (767/777), and 18% in the regional-jet sector (less than 90 seats). The biggest single market in dollar terms will be the twin-aisle category, according to Boeing, which is worth around $750 billion - 42% of the total. TRAINER Aero Vodochody secures first L-159B sale with domestic deal Czech manufacturer Aero Vodochody has secured the first sale of its L-159B two-seat jet trainer and light-attack aircraft, with Czech defence minister Jaroslav Tvrdik signing a contract for the first two aircraft at the show. The rest of the Czech Republic's requirement should be finalised soon, with up to 10 more orders expected. Vodochody president Antonin Jakubse says the company is also negotiating with the Indian air force and air forces in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. Although the L-159B is marketed as an advanced trainer and light-attack aircraft, these negotiations are for trainer sales only. 'We are selling the B as a trainer and then, hopefully, we will sell the A as an attack aircraft," says Jakubse. The Czech Republic has signed for two L-159Bs and more orders are likely SURVEILLANCE Raytheon studies UAV control from ASTOR Raytheon and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems have begun studying ways of controlling un manned air vehicles (UAV) from air borne ground-surveillance aircraft such as the ASTOR, now in develop ment for the UK Royal Air Force. Dr Richard Anderson, Raytheon vice-president integrated airborne systems, says the companies are looking at ways of passing data between the UAV and aircraft and using the datalinks on the surveil lance aircraft to download data from the UAV. Other options include con trolling the UAV and its sensors. Anderson says the study has included General Atomics' Predator and the turboprop-powered Predator B. Some of the study results could feed into the UK Watchkeeper UAV programme, he adds. Raytheon Systems UK (RSL) says, as the UK is trying to end "stovepipe" acquisitions, the work could ajlow speedier integration of ASTOR and Watchkeeper, which are both sur veillance and intelligence systems. RSL says control of the UAV, its sensors, laser designator or weapons could be managed from ASTOR air craft or ground stations. The Ministry of Defence recently pledged to give the armed forces network-centric warfare capabilities. Meanwhile, the ASTOR system is due to enter its critical design review in early September following subsystem reviews, says Anderson. Raytheon has also begun to build the ASTOR systems integra tion laboratory, "the first opportu nity for all the elements to come together, the radar [the common airborne/ground operator] worksta tions, communications [defensive aids subsystem] and datalinks". The first of five Bombardier Global Express business jets, which will be used as the ASTOR plat form, was delivered to Raytheon this year, while testing of a Global Express prototype modified to the ASTOR aerodynamic configuration is due to end in August. The aircraft has flown around 250h. Anderson says the aircraft is with in weight, power consumption and "prime performance budgets", alt hough "we had challenges." As well as the radomes for the ASTOR radar and satellite commu nications systems, the Global Express has also been fitted with ventral fins and a fintop extension to improve the aircraft's directional stability. Flights of the first ASTOR with the radar and other systems installed are to begin in 2004 with an in-service date set for September the following year. www.fliqhtinternational.com FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 30 JULY - 5 AUGUST 2002 17
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