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Aviation History
2002
2002 - 2433.PDF
BUSINESS & GENERAL AVIATION FORECASTS KATE SARSFIELD / LONDON Fractional key to market growth Downturn in production looks set to continue into next year, but more positive market outlook predicted by 2006 Around 8,200 business jets valued at more than $135 billion will be produced between 2002 and 2011, according to aviation consultancy Forecast International. This repre sents an increase of 80% over the 4,556 aircraft produced between 1992 and 2001. The Connecticut-based com pany concedes that the business jet market is experiencing a downturn after enjoying a boom since the mid-1990s. "Fragile economic con ditions and declining corporate profits are taking their toll on the business jet market, as well as high fuel prices, limits on airport access and local noise regulations," says Forecast International. As a result, annual production is expected to decline this year and next with around 730 business jets produced annually. A recovery should then begin, with annual production in 2006 expected to increase to more than 890 units. Forecast International adds: "By that time the initial backlogs for the various new models currently being introduced should be largely worked off and annual production may then decline. It is however expected to remain above 805 units for the remainder of the fore cast period." Fractional ownership compa- BUSINESS JET AIRCRAFT MARKET OUTLOOK 2002-2011 Unit production by market segment 9.3% 14.9% 23.3% Value of production by market segment 13.0% 9.8% 13.1% Super mid-size ^ Light medium Light Entry level Source: Forecast International nies, which hold around 45% of the current order backlog, are pivotal to the success of business jet builders. Forecast International says: "Some observers are con cerned manufacturers could be dangerously exposed to large-scale cancellations or deferrals as the economy weakens. After all, the orders are placed by the pro grammes themselves based on expected demand and not by the actual users." The consultancy Medium Large .;•••• Long range !• Large airliner types is optimistic, however, saying the potential market for fractional ownership is considerable and the programmes could help to mitigate any downturn in the business jet market. Cessna will lead the pack in unit terms, capturing slightly over 28% of the market share, pro ducing 2,307 aircraft during the forecast period. Bombardier will take 23% of the market based on the production of 1,889 business jets. With a production of 1,055 aircraft, Raytheon will hold 12.9% of the market; Gulfstream 11.5% and 925 units; and Dassault 9.8% and 800 aircraft. In value terms, however, Bombardier is expected to take the top spot with 26.7% of the market over the next 10 years. Gulfstream is second with 22.8%, followed by Dassault with 16.2%, Cessna with 13.9% and Raytheon with 7.7%. Forecast predicts production lev els by market segment to 2011 of: • 1,909 entry level types (for example, Cessna Citation CJ1, Raytheon Premier I, Eclipse 500); • 764 light types (Citation Bravo/Encore, Bombardier Learjet 31 A/40, Raytheon Beech jet 400A); • 974 light medium types (Learjet 45, Citation Excel, Hawker 450); • 1,225 medium types (Hawker 800XP, Dassault Falcon 50EX, Gulfstream G100); • 1,021 super mid-size types (Gulfstream G200, Bombardier Continental, Hawker Horizon, Fairchild Dornier Envoy 3); • 578 large types (Falcon 2000EX, Bombardier Challenger 604); • 1,486 long range types (Gulf stream 1V-SP/V, Bombardier Global Express/500, Falcon 900EX/7X); • 244 corporate configured airlin ers (Airbus A319 Corporate Jetliner, Boeing Business Jet/BBJ2). EXPANSION SkyTaxi gets FAA fleet expansion go-ahead for franchise venture Oregon-based SkyTaxi has received US Federal Aviation Administration approval to fly an unlimited num ber of aircraft for its franchised air taxi concept, clearing the way for a fleet expansion plan which could amount to 1,500 by 2010. SkyTaxi received its original FAA air carrier certificate earlier this year and has been in operation since 20 April using only one aircraft at a time. The full FAA clearance allows SkyTaxi to begin implementing the plan which involves franchise holders owning the aircraft and paying crew costs. SkyTaxi runs the operation, takes bookings, bills cus tomers, pays franchisees by the week and markets the service. "We have three aircraft ready now to operate by the end of this month, and our goal is to have nine in operation by year-end," says Neil Morrow, chief executive. The company has nine home base locations, with each base represent ing a staging point for a single air craft. SkyTaxi is "actively" seeking at least three more franchisees to complete its initial slot allocations in Oregon. The concept aims to provide services to remote commu nities which do not have access to traditional airline services. The SkyTaxi operation is based on a fleet of Cessna 414 Chan cellors. Development of the pur pose-designed Morrow MB-300 Boomerang originally conceived for the operation has been put on ice pending the launch of the full ser vice Flight International, 7-13 May). EJM MILESTONE Executive Jet Management (EJM) has added its 100th air craft, a Gulfstream IV-SR to its fleet. It will be based in New York and available for charter. EJM has added over 20 aircraft to its charter fleet this year and plans to add another 25 by year-end. JET ADDS HAWKER Jet Aviation has added a Raytheon Hawker 800 to its US charter fleet, bringing the total air craft in the company's worldwide fleet to 150. The business jet will be based at Allegheny County Airport in Philadelphia. www.fliqhtinternational.com FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 13-19 AUGUST 2002 29
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