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Aviation History
2002
2002 - 2697.PDF
ANALYSIS uding British Airways and Luft hansa, have had to make drastic cuts, and swallow a lot of pride, to stay competitive. This has ensured their survival. Others were not so lucky. Troubled Sabena and once blue-chip Swissair went out of busi ness weeks after the attacks. Despite the region's reputation for social economics, governments have been less generous than the USA in propping up ailing carriers, with most compensating airlines only for the four-day closure of US airspace. The flag carriers' difficulties have helped low-cost carriers such as Ryanair and the now-merged Easyjet and Go to continue their unbridled expansion. A host of new services from major airports such as Paris Orly and London Gatwick, and a move into the German mar ket, proves these airlines are serious about overturning the traditional hegemony of Europe's flag carriers. Air transport: Asia Asia's airlines recovered from 11 September relatively quickly with passenger numbers already back to pre-attack numbers. However, trav ellers are making shorter trips and many are avoiding transpacific journeys. October and November were the worst months, with year- on-year passenger numbers falling more than 15%. In January, the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) warned that the region's carriers faced a "serious if not cata strophic situation". In hindsight, this appears to have been too pes simistic. Figures from the AAPA, which represents 17 major airlines, showed that in May members car ried 4.9% more international carri ers than a year before (although revenue passenger kilometres were only up 3.7%, indicating that peo ple were choosing to holiday and do business in Asia rather than the USA). Cargo traffic is also booming, raising hopes that strong passenger recovery might be around the cor ner (see feature on P39). Security The Lockerbie bomb in 1988 jolted UK and other European authorities into tightening airport security. The huge flaws in the system exposed by 11 September showed the USA was significantly behind. The image of poorly paid, under- trained security staff chatting about last night's ball game as terrorists strolled on to aircraft terrified the country into drastic action. Within two months of the atrocities a plan to put airport security under federal control had been passed, creating the Transport Security Admini stration and two deadlines: by 12 November this year, so-called feder- alisation will be complete; and by 31 December explosive detection systems (EDS) will be installed at 429 airports, able to screen all checked-in baggage. This has meant the hiring and training of 70,000 screeners and 21,000 EDS specialists. Airlines and airports have called the deadlines unrealis tic without serious disruption to the whole air transport system and further alienation of passengers. The USA has also led the rest of the world in adopting measures to make it impossible for hijackers to take control of the aircraft by forti fying cockpit doors and requiring them to be kept locked in flight. Advice to crews in a hijack situa tion has changed from remaining passive to taking action if neces sary. Outside the USA, the Inter national Civil Aviation Organis ation has revised its Annex 17 standards for security systems and practices, and the European Civil Aviation Conference has agreed new measures based on the new Annex 17. Flight school students - most of the 11 September terrorists learned to fly in Florida - are also subject to increased scrutiny. Whatever al-Qaeda plans next, the aim is that never again will it be able to commandeer passenger air craft and use them as missiles. Defence aviation In the immediate wake of 11 September, many predicted a huge increase in defence spending. Yet only the USA - with a budget one- third higher than last year - has gone down this path. The attacks did lead directly to the war in Afghanistan which saw three key future areas put to the test: long- range strike, special forces and unmanned air vehicles (UAV). Washington would like the abil ity to strike anywhere in the world from the continental USA with minimal notice. The Northrop Grumman B-2 almost provides that capability - the stealth bomber was flown from Whiteman AFB, Missouri, to Afghanistan, returning via Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean after a 40-44h journey, where the crew was changed with the engines still running. Although the US Air Force wants to speed missions up, and is looking at pro grammes such as the Quiet Super sonic Platform, the ability to strike worldwide from the USA with a ""i Delta [ Ticketed | Passengers Only Beyond Security Checkp oint Mj J§ ^^^^SiM Ay** mLMm>* 9 M ^L V S^k^SI SV A1 1111^0' IW &£* Security in the USA tightens up (top); as troubled US airlines dig in (above) manned aircraft offers distinct advantages over submarine and ship-launched cruise missiles. Special forces are seen as key to force projection on the ground in modern warfare, where the guerrilla enemy is often scattered and inte grated with local communities. Such forces, including the elite Delta Force and the UK's SAS, are lightly-armed, highly mobile and better trained than the average inf antryman. Their increasing use will require greater numbers of helicop ters for infiltration and extraction, in addition to logistics support. UAVs played a vital role in Afghanistan, including the armed version of General Atomics' RQ-1 Predator. However, issues still remain, including the time taken to interpret and communicate data from the UAV's sensor to the shoot er. Afghanistan has been expensive in terms of UAVs: as well as losing several tactical air vehicles, the USAF lost two Northrop Grumman RQ-4A Global Hawks. Given the programme is still in development, the experience gained from throw ing them into real combat was tem pered by the cost of replacing them. Business aviation Many expected business aviation to gain from the drop in confi dence in air transport, but this has proved wishful thinking. Charter companies and fractional owner ship programmes are thriving. But orders and used aircraft values across the market are down. In the first half of 2002, business jet deliv eries fell from 396 to 357 aircraft compared with the same period in 2001, while turboprop deliveries almost halved from 204 to 111, according to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association. Reaction to the US corporate scandals has also made the case more difficult for exclusive, luxuri ous executive travel. The impact of the security backlash has hit the sector, with many operators denied access to major airports. The National Business Aviation Assoc iation convention is normally where aircraft makers vie with each other to throw spectacular launch celebrations and announce the biggest orders. This week's event in Orlando is likely to be a muted affair, falling as it does on the anniversary of the attacks. The USA is in no mood to party. www.flightinternational.com FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 10-16 SEPTEMBER 2002 9
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