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Aviation History
2002
2002 - 3370.PDF
AIR TRANSPORT FORECAST Fall in airliner delivery rate expected to continue Airbus and Boeing delivery rates are expected to continue drop ping through to 2004 because of the slower-than-expected eco nomic recovery and continuing market uncertainty, says Pierre Chao, aerospace and defence group managing director of Credit Suisse First Boston. Airbus, while striving to keep production at levels as high as possible to feed its highly auto mated assembly line, is expected to end this year with about 293 deliveries, compared with 325 in 2001. This is down on earlier predictions for the year which varied from 313 to 390 before 11 September, 2001. At the recent Speednews regional and corporate aviation industry suppliers conference, Chao said: "Airbus has 290 iden tifiable orders for delivery in 2003, but questions remain over the usual deferrals and cancella tions." The final number may be closer to 268 against pre-11 September forecasts of 450, he said. The decline is widely expected to stabilise at around 260 by 2004, assuming current trends continue. The drop is expected to be more drastic for Boeing, which is forecast to see deliveries tumble from the record 527 in 2001 to about 280 next year, and possi bly lower in 2004. The year-end tally for 2002 is forecast at around 380, against earlier esti mates which ranged from as low as 350 to 510 before the terrorist attacks. Boeing has "252 identifi able orders" for 2003 delivery, says Chao, who describes as "eye-popping" the sudden shortfall in the order backlog for some models. This is most acute for the 757, which is scheduled for only four deliveries in 2004, and the 767, with only five deliveries for 2005. However, the rate of the latter line is guaranteed because of the forthcoming US Air Force in flight refuelling tanker contract. FLEET RESTRUCTURE BRENDAN SOBIE / WASHINGTON DC US Airways axes aircraft and aims for leasing deal Carrier attempts to save $400 million a year by renegotiating commitments US Airways has slashed its fleet by 31 aircraft and is trying to reduce lease or financing terms on about half of its remaining 280 aircraft. The carrier is free to reject 119 mainline aircraft as part of its restructuring to avoid bankruptcy and so far has notified the court it has returned 23. Eight more aircraft need to go back to meet its revised fleet plan as it strives to achieve annual savings of at least $400 mil lion by renegotiating commit ments on 88 of the 119 aircraft it has the right to return. US Airways plans to ask the court on 12 December to approve new lease and financing deals. Earlier this month, it secured court approval to retain commitments on 129 mainline aircraft, saying they already reflected market rates. All but two of these are relatively new Airbuses which have been spared from the carrier's restructur ing. Aircraft already returned include 16 Boeing 737-300s and seven 737-4O0s, and the eight still to be returned are expected to be 737s or Boeing 757s. US Airways is trying to lower payments on its remaining 737- 300/400s, 757-200S and 767- 200ERs. It has warned lessors it will return aircraft if they do not agree to match market rates. The airline has threatened to temporarily shrink its fleet below 280 aircraft and get back to this figure by lining up new deals with lessors offering aircraft at lower rates. The 280-strong fleet, which includes 21 back-up aircraft, sup ports US Airways' new schedule of 1,350 daily frequencies. It plans to shrink this to 1,250 flights in January, but insists the reductions are temporary and will be achieved by cutting unprofitable off-peak flights rather than more aircraft. But the carrier's pilots union fears US Airways will cut its main line fleet to 245 aircraft, the mini mum allowed under its contract. US Airways' three regional sub sidiaries are also shedding aircraft and have cut 100 turboprop flights. So far, only four Bombardier Dash 8s have been returned, giving the carriers a combined fleet of 108 Dash 8s and 30 Fairchild Dornier 328 turboprops. But the carriers are free to return a further 36 Dash 8s and are also trying to renegotiate lease deals. US Airways has a fur ther 64 turboprops and 70 regional jets in its network which are oper ated by five independent partners. The carrier has also secured the right to return or abandon its fleets of Boeing 737-200s, MD-80s and Fokker 100s. Boeing 757s are likely to be among the aircraft US Airways will return AIRCRAFT DEVELOPMENT Antonov to develop wing for China Antonov has been contracted by China Aviation Industry I (AVIC I) to develop a supercritical aerofoil wing for the planned ARJ21 regional jet. The deal was con firmed at this month's Airshow China in Zuhai (Flight International, 12-18 November). The Ukrainian design bureau will be responsible for optimising the ARJ21's wing and constructing windtunnel models. Development of the ARJ21 should be completed in the middle of next year, with service entry in 2006. Antonov has also signed an agreement with Shaanxi Aircraft to join its Y-8F600 freighter pro gramme as a risk-sharing partner. Antonov designers will assist in structural design and aerodynamics of the four-engined aircraft, which is a development of the Y-8F400, itself based on the Antonov An-12. Antonov is already involved in windtunnel testing of the Y-8F600. Agreement has been reached with Pratt & Whitney Canada to power the Y-8F600 with the PVV150B turboprop. The new 20,000kg (44,0001b)-payload air craft will be equipped with US-built avionics. Certification is planned for the fourth quarter of 2005. • Antonov and the Kharkov air craft production plant have signed a letter of intent with China's State Export-Import Company for the delivery of two An-74TK-300 twin- jets to Chinese airlines. According to Antonov, talks are under way to firm up the agree ment and secure follow-on deals for 20 An-74TK-300s for several Chinese airlines. 10 19-25 NOVEMBER 2002 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL www.flightinternational.com
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