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Aviation History
2002
2002 - 3742.PDF
remained fairly solid. This has not stopped two key players leaving the market, how ever, and trading conditions remain partic ularly tough at the top end of the sector. BAE Systems made a tactical withdrawal from regional aircraft manufacturing in 2002 when it ceased production of the Avro RJ, and was followed almost immedi ately by Fairchild Dornier entering bank ruptcy in April. The latter's demise froze the 70- to 100-seat 728/928 family before the regional jet had even flown. Although it remains to be seen whether efforts to revive Fairchild Dornier's product line will be successful, the long expected shake-out leaves just two key players in the 40- to 100-seat regional market - Bom bardier and Embraer - with ATR providing some competition for the Bombardier Dash 8 in the limited market for new turboprops. Output falls Bombardier increased production in 2002, but a drop in deliveries at Embraer and the exit of BAE and Fairchild Dornier resulted in an overall 10% decline in output of regional jets. This may have been just a blip, as production is scheduled to increase to around 340 aircraft in 2003. Sales of new turboprops continue to decline, par ticularly as so many young second-hand examples are available, falling to an esti mated 50 aircraft in 2002. Despite continued demand for the smaller regional jets, the downturn has made life difficult for Bombardier and Embraer as they seek buyers for their new larger jets. The Brazilian manufacturer's efforts were dealt a blow by slippages in the Embraer 170 programme, with deliver ies to launch customer Swiss International Airlines due to begin in December, but now not likely to start until the third quar ter. Meanwhile deliveries of the latest Bombardier CRJ, the 86-seat CRJ900, will J Jets _J Turboprops 400 350 begin in January to launch customer Mesa Air Group/Freedom Airlines. Although the market seems to be telling suppliers that it does not want another regional jet model, at least two more aircraft are on the drawing board - the Sukhoi-led Russian Regional Jet joint- venture in which Boeing is a participant, and China's ARJ21 - and 2003 could well be a make-or-break year for either or both projects. In Russia and the Ukraine, aircraft out put remains low despite local initiatives to fund airline orders and the discourage ment of Western aircraft acquisitions through hefty import taxes. The strongest programme currently appears to be the 200-seat Tupolev Tu-204/214 twinjet, which has a relatively solid orderbook and funding. If this programme can succeed, it is likely to become the blueprint for the resurrection of the region's other strug gling programmes like the Ilyushin 11-96 and Tupolev Tu-334. FLIGHT Slippages in the Embraer 170 programme caused headaches for the Brazilian company in 2002 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 (est) Defence Contractors are set to benefit from a potential Iraqi conflict with increase in munitions and spares orders STEWART PENNEY DEFENCE EDITOR M uch of the defence industry's direction in 2003 will be guided by whether the USA goes to war with Iraq. Any con flict throws up lessons that need to be absorbed by operators and man ufacturers alike. In the short term, a war is also likely to benefit the three big US defence contractors - Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon - as increased orders for munitions and spares flow through. Medium- and longer-term effects will obvi ously take more time to become apparent, although there are unlikely to be big increases in the number of platforms to be acquired. US industry will also benefit from the biggest-ever boost in defence spending. The $37.5 billion budget hike for 2003 is larger than most other countries' defence budgets, but how much will directly bene fit industry and how much will be used to address issues such as service personnel pay and conditions remains to be seen. This year is likely to be make-or-break for two fighter programmes that suffere mis haps at the end of 2002. Despite the loss of a development aircraft in late November, the Eurofighter will start to join the four 26 31 DECEMBER 2002 - 6 JANUARY 2003 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL www.flightinternational.com
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