FlightGlobal.com
Home
Premium
Archive
Video
Images
Forum
Atlas
Blogs
Jobs
Shop
RSS
Email Newsletters
You are in:
Home
Aviation History
2003
2003 - 0075.PDF
ULL LIST OF READER SERVICES EDITORIAL + 44 (20) 8652 3842 Quadrant House, The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey SM2 5AS, UK Fax +44 (20) 8652 3840 email fliqMMernationambi.co.uk Editor Murdo Morrison +44 (20) 8652 4395 mwdo.monison@rbi.co.ult Acting Editor's PA Andrew Costerton +44 (20) 8652 3835 andrew.costerton@rbi.co.uk News Editor Andrew Doyle +44 (20) 8652 3096 andrew.doyle@rbi.co.uk Commercial Aviation Editor Max Kingsley-Jones •44 (20) 8652 3825 max.kingsley.Jones@rbi.co.uk Defence Aviation Editor Stewart Penney +44 (20) 8652 3834 stewart.penney@rbi.co.uk Operations/Safety Editor David Learmount +44 (20) 8652 3845 david.learmount@rbi.co.uk Business Editor Alexander Campbell +44 (20) 8652 3990 alexander.cam0elt@rbi.co.uk Business & General Aviation Editor Kate Sarsfield +44 (20) 8652 3885 kate.sarsfield@rbi.co.uk Reporter Justin Wastnaqe +44 (20) 8652 3St3justin.wastnage@rbi.co.uk Technical Reporter Michael Phelan +44 (20) 8652 3843 michael.phelan@rbi.co.uk Spaceflight Correspondent Tim Furniss +44 (1237) 471960 tim@spaceport.co.uk EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST European Editor Christina Mackenzie +33 (1) 64 23 68 89 christina.mackenzie@rbi.co.uk Israel Correspondent Arie Egozi +972 (3) 9413132 Middle East Correspondent Gerald Butt +357 22 771967 gbutt@spidernet.com.cy AMERICAS Washington DC Office Fax +1 (703) 836 8344 Americas Editor Graham Warwick +1 (703) 836 3448 graham.warwick@rbi.co.uk East Coast Editor Paul Lewis +1 (703) 836 3084 jpaul.lewis@rbi.co.uk West Coast Editor Guy Norris +1 (949) 252 8971 Fax +1 (949) 252 8972 guy.norris@rbi.co.uk Brazil Correspondent Jackson Flores Jr +55 212439-6062 Fax 00 55 212349-6090 fubar@uol.com.br Canada Correspondent Brian Dunn ASIA/PACIFIC Singapore Office Fax +65 6789 7575 Regional Managing Editor Nicholas lonides +65 6780 4311 nicholas.ionides@rbi.co.uk Australia Civil Aviation Correspondent Paul Phelan +61(7)40532791 Fax+61 (7)40533003 pdphelan@optusnet.com.au Australia Military Aviation Correspondent Peter La Franchi +61 (0) 419 246 620 Fax +61 (2) 62312795 nulka@ozemail.com.au EDITORIAL PRODUCTION Group Production Editor Graeme Osborn +44 (20) 8652 3828 Group Art Editor James Mason +44 (20) 86524994 Chief Sub-Editor Chris Thornton +44 (20) 8652 4997 Deputy Production Editor Jackie Thompson +44 (20) 8652 3850 Sub Editor Megan Turner +44 (20) 8652 3848 Photographer Mark Wagner +44 (20) 8944 5225 Senior Technical Artist Giuseppe Picarella +44 (20) 8652 8054 Editorial Artist Tim Brown +44 (20) 8652 8043 WWW.FLIGHTINTERNATI0NAL.COM Webmaster Sheena Buchanan +44 (20) 8652 4432 SUBSCRIPTIONS +44 (1444) 445454 rbi.subscriptions@rbi.co.uk THE FLIGHT COLLECTION kim.hearn@rbi.co.uk © and Database Rights 2003 Reed Business Information Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission in writing of the publishers A'fl' j~\J J onlineserviceatwww.rati.com, contains the full text of Right International and Airline Business since 1996. Full text of the magazines can also be found online with Lexis-Nexis, Dialogue, FT Profile, IAC and Reuters. Editor Kieran Daly +44 (20) 8652 3837 Reed Business Information COMMENT Give war a chance The airline industry needs a quick, decisive war in Iraq to set the recovery rolling. War may be awful - but phoney war is worse The glimmer did not last. For a few hopeful months, in the first half of last year, as the 11 September aftershocks subsided and with the Taliban dispatched from Afghanistan, the industry dared to hope that recovery was on the way. A revival in the US economy was being forecast for quarter three. Airline pas sengers had begun to return. Boeing was enthusing about its Sonic Cruiser prospects and Fairchild Dornier about those of its 728 regional jet. And, if they were not actually plac ing orders, airlines were at least beginning to talk about fleet renewals. Then, by the second half of last year, the slow drift towards war in Iraq threw the latent recovery into reverse, with airlines holding back on orders until the international situation was resolved. Although further terrorist out rages, including the devastating bomb in Bali, directed at Western tourists, further dented confidence, airlines and airframers started to The slow drift towards war with Iraq has thrown the latent recovery into reverse blame the indecision over Iraq rather than 11 September for the industry's malaise. This was certainly the case at the Airbus press conference last week. According to Airbus president Noel Forgeard, the uncer tainty in the Middle East could turn an already dismal year for the two big manufacturers into a crisis. Orders for more than 100 aircraft apiece from two European low-cost airlines, EasyJet and Ryanair, masked what was a grim 2002 for Airbus and Boeing. Take these away and the performance was catastrophic. Not a single Boeing 757 was ordered all year; only eight Boeing 767s found customers and Airbus had net orders for just 12 A330s. That is why Forgeard has called for a quick decision on possible hostilities. That is code for: "Let's get it over with." Despite the growing opposition in Europe in particular to UK and US unilateral action in Iraq, the discovery last week of undeclared empty chemical warheads by United Nations inspec tors makes war now almost inevitable. Bar a remarkable about face by the UN Security Council, it seems certain that the so-called "smoking gun" excuse to go to war will be established and the allies given the UN's blessing to attack Saddam Hussein. The best case scenario for the West would then be an eleventh-hour coup d'etat by the Iraqi military, deposing Saddam and installing some sort of provisional government commit ted to establishing democracy, a federal constitution and the rule of law in one of the world's most troublesome states. That task, although awesome, would be easier than in, say, Afghanistan, a mountainous, tribal coun try with poor communications, a subsistence agricultural economy, a barely functioning infrastructure and little national identity. Iraq is a modern, oil-rich nation, with a long cultural heritage, and a functioning civil service and military. By the middle of the year, Iraq could be under the rule of a benign interim presi dent, albeit one put in place by the armed forces. Saddam would be dead, in jail or in humiliating exile. The worst scenario - worse than the phoney war-would be a drawn-out, bloody campaign, another Vietnam, with the USA and its allies occupying a divided, starving country, fighting a guerrilla war and with Saddan Hussein, dead or alive, a Bin Laden-like martyr or hero. That - and the spread of unrest to the rest of the Middle East— could plunge indus try and the world economy into the deepest recession since the Second World War. What we end up with depends on the good sense of Iraq's generals, until now loyal to Saddam. Knowing that the awesome air power of the USA would destroy within days what is left of their hardware after the previous Gulf War, it makes no sense for them to dig in for a long resistance. Iraq has its geographical challenges for any invading army - the marshes in the south, mountains to the north and two big rivers, the Euphrates and Tigris. But it is no Vietnam or Afghanistan with impen etrable mountains or jungles for guerrillas to hide in. The best Iraq's commanders could hope for would be to shoot down the occa sional aircraft in the initial days of an air war and eventually to fight house-by-house for control of the capital. It is difficult to see Iraq's largely conscripted armed forces holding out any longer than they did in 1991. No one wants a war. It may send defence stocks and President George Bush's poll rat ings soaring, but it also means that lives are destroyed - innocent civilians as well as ser vicemen and women. However, being anything less than resolute with Saddam Hussein over the next few weeks will only prolong the agony of the aviation industry. SEE AIR TRANSPORT P13 www.flightinternational.com FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 21-27 JANUARY 2003 5
Sign up to
Flight Digital Magazine
Flight Print Magazine
Airline Business Magazine
E-newsletters
RSS
Events
