FlightGlobal.com
Home
Premium
Archive
Video
Images
Forum
Blogs
Jobs
Shop
RSS
Email Newsletters
You are in:
Home
Aviation History
2003
2003 - 0233.PDF
NEWS ANALYSIS REGIONAL AIRCRAFT MAX KINGSLEY-JONES / LONDON Cancellations exceed orders Ten-year regional jet boom collapses as demand slumps further and analysts predict another grim 12 months ahead Last year was a watershed for the regional aircraft industry in more ways than one. Not only did it see the demise of another key jet man ufacturer and an important new airliner programme, but it repre sented the end of the regional jet boom that began 10 years ago. The sector's total order tally col lapsed from 400 aircraft (gross) in 2001 to just 112 last year, a fall of 72% to the lowest level for well over a decade. This was the second consecutive fall, as 2001's orders were also down. Regional jets made up the bulk of the orders (86), but even this total was the lowest since 1993 - when the concept was in its infancy. Bombardier took the hon ours in the jet sector, with over half of the gross intake. The short- term outlook remains bleak, says Les Weal, chief analyst of UK aviation consultancy Airclaims. "This will be another tough year. It is hard to see where many big orders are going to come from. Given current uncertainties, many airlines might adopt a wait- and-see philosophy." Key to the manufacturers' for tunes in 2003 will be whether sev eral potentially major regional jet orders from US Airways and United Airlines that are currently in limbo get confirmed. The ATR and Bombardier Q Series turboprop families continue to fight for the scraps from the regional jets' table, but between them could only muster 24 orders, net of cancellations. Sales of pro peller-driven aircraft have been in free fall for several years, and 2002's tally was less than half the total taken in the preceding 12 months. Raytheon's decision to leave the market, halting the 1900D, means ATR is the only regional manufac turer without a jet. It was last year's winner, with 60% of sales. Whether the turboprop mar ket's collapse has reached the bot tom yet is unclear, but if global sales fall bellow the 20-unit mark this year then it will be difficult to see how continued production of two turboprop types will be sus tainable in the long term. ATR remains confident that the sector has bottomed out, predicting that the annual market should recover to the 40-60 aircraft level once the market picks up. The overall net order total repre sents a deficit this year, reflecting the effect of the demise of the TURBOPROP AIRLINER DELIVERIES AND ORDERS 2002 ATR Seats Deliveries Orders ATR 42 48 5 2 ATR 72 68 14 14 Total 19 16 Bombardier Dash8Q10O200 37 0 0* Dash 8 Q300 50 11 6* Dash8Q400 74 18 4* Total 29 10 Embraer EMB-120 30 0 0 Fairchild Dornier Metro* 19 0 0 228* 19 1 0 328* 33 0 0 Total 1 0 Raytheon Beech 1900D* 19 11 0 Total 60 26 Notes - See other table -2002 Net Cancelled orders Backlog 2 0 0 14 2 14 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 10* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 24 1 23 24 1 16 12 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 2001 Net Deliveriesorders 5 15 20 5 20 30 55 2 6 1 1 8 11 96 5 20 25 0 6 6 12 0 0 0 0 0 20* 57 Fairchild Dornier 328JET and 728 programmes. The 328JET's new owner AvCraft Aviation is promis ing that the 30-seater will make a comeback, but the disappearance of the all-new 728 looks almost cer tain, leaving a hole in the regional aircraft order backlog. Lufthansa was the biggest loser, having held a launch order for 60 728s (plus 60 options) until the programme's sus pension last year. The German air line is expected to replace that order with a deal for Bombardier or Embraer regional jets, however. After almost exponential growth during the 1990s driven by airlines' insatiable demand for small jets, regional aircraft output growth hit the stops in 2001, and last year fell 16%, to the levels of the late 1990s. This was partly caused by the first fall in regional jet output since the mid-1990s, to 309 aircraft, and fin ished off by a continued decline in turboprop production, which dropped by a third to 60 aircraft. Bombardier was the overall vic tor, delivering more than 50% of the total, including 29 Dash 8 Q Series and 180 CRJs - the latter 20% more than in 2001. Embraer's 121 deliveries were its lowest since 1999, but it is set to bounce back this year to 148 aircraft as ERJ deliv eries pick up and production of the new 170 family takes off. The outlook for 2003 is for regional jet deliveries overall to stay flat, while turboprop production is inevitably set for further decline following the removal of the Beech 1900D from the equation. The regional jet and turboprop backlog has dropped by a third to 860 due to a low order intake and the deletion of orders after Fairchild Dormer's collapse. The turboprop order backlog continues to account for around 6% of the total. REGIONAL JET ORDERS, DELIVERIES AND BACKLOG - 2002 2002 Net Seats Deliveries Orders Cancelled orders Backlog BAE Systems RJ 85/100 0 0 0 0 0 RJX 85/100 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 0 0 Bombardier* CRJ" 50 134 43* 10 33 263 CRJ700 70 46 3* 0 3 130 CRJ900 90 0 0* 0 0 30 Total 180 46* 10 36 423 Embraer** ERJ-135 37 3 15 34 -19 31 ERJ-140 44 36 0 0 0 116 ERJ-145 50 82 15 -17 32 109 170 70 0 6 0 6 88 195 108 0 0 0 0 30 Total 121 36 17 19 374 Fairchiid Dornier** 328JET 33 8 4 56 -52 6 728/928 70/90 0 0 124 -124 0 Total 8 4 180 -176 6 Jets total 309 86 207 -121 803 Regional aircraft total 369 112 209 -97 856 2001 Net Deliveries orders 10 0 10 126 22 0 148 27 22 104 0 0 153 31 0 31 342 438 1 -2 -1 189 21 20 230 -5 41 2 -8 0 30 49 4 53 312 369 NOTES FOR BOTH TABLES Source: Flight /nternai7ona//manufacturers.Cancellations may be "negative" where an order has been converted from one aircraft to another, but no "new" order has taken place. *Some data sourced from Airclaims CASE when manufacturers unable to provide figures. "Figures exclude Challenger 800, Legacy, and Envoy corporate models and military deliveries 18 4-10 FEBRUARY 2003 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL www.flightinternational.com
Sign up to
Flight Digital Magazine
Flight Print Magazine
Airline Business Magazine
E-newsletters
RSS
Events
