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Aviation History
2003
2003 - 2194.PDF
NBAA FIRST NEWS FORECASTS GRAHAM WARWICK / WASHINGTON DC Delivery upturn expected in 2005 Honeywell and Rolls-Royce forecast flat business-jet market next year, but see slow recovery as economy improves New forecasts by Honeywell and Rolls-Royce predict the trough in business jet deliveries will continue through 2004, with a slow but steady recovery from 2005. Both assume continued but slower growth in frac tional ownership to around 20% of annual deliveries by 2012. Although they cover slightly dif ferent periods and aircraft cate gories, the two forecasts paint simi lar pictures of a sustained recovery to annual deliveries that, by the end of the decade, are higher than at their peak in 2001. Honeywell forecasts shipments of more than 7,700 business jets under 45,400kg (100,0001b) gross weight from 2003 to 2013. R-R projects deliveries of 6,520 aircraft over 4,540kg gross weight between 2003 and 2012. Honeywell excludes airliner- based aircraft such as the Boeing Business Jet (BBJ), but includes the Cessna Citation Mustang; R-R in cludes the BBJ and Airbus Corporate Jetliner, but not the Mustang and other small jets like the Eclipse 500. Honeywell expects deliveries of 450-500 aircraft this year and next, down from 676 a year ago, increas ing to 530-560 in 2005 and approaching 800 a year later in the decade. R-R projects deliveries of around 500 aircraft this year and next, with a slow upturn from 2005, rising to over 800 in 2010-11, before sliding into another trough, albeit shallower, around 2015 with the next cyclical downturn. Fractional growth has slowed over the past two years, but is expected to continue and, com bined with backlogs for new models to enter service over the next few years, underpins hopes for a recov ery beginning in 2005. Of the 1,500 orders, options and deposits held by manufacturers, two-thirds are for new models and 40% are for frac tionals, the company says. Honey well is tracking more than 20 addi tional new or derivative business jet programmes under study or in pre liminary design and expected to enter service in the next 10-15 years. Honeywell projects the frac tional-jet fleet will grow from around 770 aircraft and 4,300 own ers in 2003 to 1,200 aircraft and 7,000 owners in 2007. The com pany expects fractionals to grow from 6% of the global fleet and 15% of annual shipments to 10% of the fleet and 20% of deliveries by 2012 - a forecast echoed by R-R's projection that fractionals will account for 23% of the 2003-12 market and 90-100 deliveries a year in the medium term. EXECUTIVE TURBOFAN DELIVERIES - UNITS 1,000 800 - 600 2 o < 400 200 • Ultra Long Range • Long Range • Large iSl Medium-Large • Medium • Light-Medium M Light J V-Light FLIGHT History Rolls-Royce's 20-year hopes Rolls-Royce projects almost 14,000 new business jets will be delivered over the next 20 years- 6,520 between 2003 and 2012, and 7,430 from 2013 to 2022. The company forecasts another cyclical slump in the • market around the middle of the next decade, but nowhere near as deep as the current trough, with deliveries slipping from a peak of over 800 a year around 2010 to about 650 a year in 2015 before recovering. Entry-level and light jets will each account for 14% of the 20-year deliv ery total, light medium 28%, medium 22%, long-range 13% and very long-range 8%. Large business jets based on airliners will account for only 1 % of sales. The fleet is ageing, with 40% of the aircraft already 20 years of age or older, and R-R expects 4,500 aircraft to be retired over the next 10-20 years, with many light to medium aircraft being replaced. ENGINES Williams launches growth FJ44 Williams International has launched a growth version of its FJ44 small turbo- fan. The 3,500lb thrust (15.5kN) FJ44-4 does not have a customer yet, but will be available within the certification timescale of any aircraft application, according to chairman Dr Sam Williams. The company is proceeding with plans to run a full engine. "We see a market opportunity at 3,500lb, and we can do a better job than the other engines at that size," says Williams. The FJ44-4 offers higher thrust at altitude and lower cruise specific fuel consumption than the competing Honeywell TFE731-20 and Pratt & Whitney Canada PW500, he says. Meanwhile, the Walled Lake, Michigan-based engine manufacturer expects to certificate the 3,000lb thrust-class FJ44-3, which powers the Cessna Citation CJ3, by the end of the year. Williams' smaller FJ33 will be certificated early next year at 1,500lb thrust. This engine has been selected to power three entry-level jets, the Adam A700 at 1,200lb thrust, the single-engined Diamond D-Jet at 1,400lb and the Satire Jet at 1,1001b. The F33 is flying on the A700, which is scheduled for certification by the end of next year. The FJ33, like the FJ44-3/4, has full-authority digital engine control. FUNDING KATE SARSFIELD / LONDON Satire secures investment and stays on course for first flight Satire Aircraft has completed the third round of financing for its Satire Jet and the company says that it is on track for the first flight of the twin-engined personal jet in the third quarter of next year, lead ing to US certification and first deliveries in 2006. President and chief executive Camilo Salomon says Satire has secured more than 300 orders for the $1.4 million aircraft, and the recent tranche of investment will fund the programme "well into the certification phase". Next year, Salomon says, Satire will build the infrastruture neces sary to support the aircraft in ser vice. "We will announce a training partner, an insurance and financ ing programme, as well as a cus tomer support programme," he says, adding: "It is widely accepted that there's a significant market emerging for this type of aircraft, from owner/operators, air taxi, air charter, fractional, corporate, priority cargo, training and government/military operators worldwide." Satire has conducted research into the personal jet market and plans to publish a summary of findings in the next few weeks. 24 7-13 OCTOBER 2003 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL www.flightinternational.com
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