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Aviation History
2003
2003 - 2301.PDF
fare structures impinge on their revenues, but both carriers have been highly prof itable (although Easyjet hit a bump earlier this year). Despite its headline low fares, Ryanair has the most enviable operating margins in the business - at 31% - and is the 25th largest airline in the world in terms of pas sengers carried in 2002. US low-cost JetBlue will also feel compensated for still being well outside the top 50 by raking up operating margins of nearly 17%. Reducing orders Swiss's problems are perhaps transparent in its 2002 orders tally. Its order book of 74 aircraft - half the total size of its existing fleet - has been ramped back severely in 2003 and it has decided not to be the launch customer for the Embraer 170. Also struggling with aircraft numbers are several of the US majors, as they try to match capacity to reduced demand. The 2002 fig ures show American Airlines cutting its active fleet from 865 aircraft to 806, while US Airways went from 327 to 263. While some more modern aircraft are being put into storage, the extended downturn has sealed the fate of some older models, with US Airways disposing of its McDonnell Douglas DC-9s and Boeing MD-80s. In South America, Brazilian flag carrier Varig's merger with compatriot TAM should see it jump up the table from its current 40th spot. However, the airline's financial prob lems run deep. Aside from losing $454 mil lion in 2002, the carrier has cancelled orders for Boeing 737-800s and has fur- loughed 15 aircraft, mostly older 737s. The passenger rankings tell a very differ ent story to the rankings by revenue. With the cargo carriers excluded for obvious rea- BAhas replaced most of its Boeing 757 fleet with a new fleet of Airbus narrow- bodies sons, US airlines - American, United, Delta and Northwest - take the top four posi tions. That is not surprising, given European carriers' higher dependence on long-haul passengers. In all cases, however, except Delta, where passenger numbers were flat, passenger numbers fell. Southwest, however, bucked the trend with a 2% increase in passengers. It is ranked 12th in the passenger tables, com pared with 18 in the revenue ranking. Last year was essentially a year of two halves. After taking action to reduce costs and capacity after 11 September, 2002 actually began on quite an optimistic note. Following the quick and successful war in Afghanistan, Airbus chief operating officer John Leahy felt confident enough to declare at the Asian Aerospace show in February: "We are seeing definite recovery. WORLD PASSENGER TRAFFIC FORECAST TO 2010 1600— 1400- 1200- 0) ^1000- E -* 800 - Passenge r o o 400- 200- - o - — North America — Asia/Pacific — Europe Source: ICAO — Latin America Middle East / — Africa /• ^ 1/ / * • FLIGHT < i i 1999 2005 2010 Note: 2002 estimated, 2003 and subsequent years forecast IAEV2500 • :!or s» Pratt & Whitney A United Ibchnotofliea Company www.fliqhtinternational.com FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 14-20 OCTOBER 2003 43
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