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Aviation History
2003
2003 - 2924.PDF
Boeing's 777-300ER will enter service in 2004 Middle Eastern aviation. Despite being at the epicentre of the war on terrorism, despite the Iraq conflict and the economic slowdown, Middle East carriers have reported sharp rises in traffic and responded with huge aircraft orders. But the development of ambitious carriers like Gulf Air, Emirates and Qatar Airways will largely depend on the success of efforts to turn Gulf emirates into tourist destinations. Airframers Airbus and Boeing expect a flat 2004 but hope for better 2005 MAX KINGSLEY-JONES/ COMMERCIAL AVIATION EDITOR T he "airline recovery starts here" is what the major manufacturers hope and believe, to ensure that an uplift in orders in 2004 leads to a boost in output from 2005. Airbus and Boeing are optimistic that while 2004 will be flat for output, 2005 should start to see rates increase, but this is far from certain. "With deliveries lagging two-to-three years behind orders, if we don't see an orders recovery in 2004, then we'll have to start questioning whether deliveries will start going up in 2005," says Airbus chief commercial officer John Leahy. Airbus has just taken Boeing's scalp for the first time in terms of airliner production, delivering around 310 aircraft against its rival's 280, for a total of 590 aircraft. This represents the second consecutive year of decline in large aircraft production, with deliveries falling 14% from the 2002 total of 684 aircraft (381 Boeings and 303 Airbuses). Leahy expects Airbus's 2004's delivery numbers will be "similar, if not a little bit down" on 2003, as its order intake has been lower than the deliveries for the year. Boeing expects another flat year in 2004, with 270-290 deliveries. "We feel we've hit bottom, but we don't see a recov ery in orders before 2005," says Boeing vice-president marketing Randy Baseler. "Before the SARS outbreak, we expected orders to start coming back in 2004 and output from 2005. That recovery next year now depends on airline revenues improv ing." He adds that he is encouraged with the way the US market is recovering, and that "yields are coming back". GE Aircraft Engines president David Calhoun is also cautiously optimistic that the worst is over: "There's no question we are beginning to see a lift, I believe we are in for an upturn. I'm more optimistic than I have been for three years." At the time of writing, Airbus's and Boe ing's gross orders for the year stood at 490, compared to 550 for the whole of 2002. Backlog is expected to decline by around 100 units to a little over 2,500 aircraft. Airbus gains Airbus's market share gains in terms of gross orders in recent years has been extra ordinary, moving from 20% of the market as recently as 1995 to 55% this yqar. Leahy predicts that the market will now settle, with Airbus and Boeing trading places in the 40-60% market share band. Several major milestones should be passed over the next 12 months, probably the most significant of which will be the full launch of the Boeing 7E7 and the roll out of the first Airbus A380 in Toulouse. With Boeing's board having given author ity to offer the new widebody, the manu facturer is now tasked with signing up enough orders to get the programme fully launched during 2004. One key element of the 7E7 programme, which should be resolved next year, is the selection of the engine suppliers. With all three powerplant players in the running, Boeing is still to decide publicly whether it will go for single or dual source. If the for mer is chosen, it will be interesting to see if one of the losers hooks up with Airbus to help it develop a competitor. The A380 roll-out, scheduled for the end of 2004, will precede the historic first flight of the 550-seat giant early the following year. However, Airbus has some key hur dles to negotiate in the intervening period, including the definition of the specifica tion for the initial production aircraft and ensuring that it keeps to its timetable and performance promises. Boeing is due to deliver its first 777- 300ER - equipped with the world's most powerful engine, the General Electric 26 23 DECEMBER 2003 - 5 JANUARY 2004 FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL www.flightinternational.com
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