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Aviation History
2004
2004-09 - 1976.PDF
NBAA FIRST NEWS OUTLOOK GRAHAM WARWICK / WASHINGTON DC Honeywell delivers upbeat forecast for future deliveries Industry growth, fractional expansion and new models contribute to bright outlook Around 8,500 jets worth $131 bil lion will be delivered between 2004 and 2014 "as industry recovery gets back on track", predicts Honeywell in its annual business aviation out look released at this week's National Business Aviation Association con vention in Las Vegas. "Improved order rates, established new model backlogs, continuing expansion in fractional ownership in North America and Europe and sustained economic recovery are key factors supporting a longer-term outlook for growth," says Bob Johnson, pres ident and chief executive of Honeywell Aerospace. After a record peak in 2001, deliveries declined more than 20% to reach bottom in 2003, says Honeywell. Business jet shipments rose 2.6% in the first half of this year, to 238 units, and the com pany expects 2004 deliveries to total 525-550 aircraft - up from 506 in 2003 - rising to more than 650 in 2005 and between 650 and 700 in 2006. Economic growth and new models should support sus tained deliveries of around 800 air craft a year later in the decade, Honeywell believes. Fractional-ownership pro grammes are forecast to account for 15-17% of annual deliveries by 2014, up from the near-term figure of 12-13%. Honeywell says demand for new jets in fractional service is sustainable for many years, given that a sizeable portion of the current fleet will be replaced with new aircraft in addition to the shareowner base continuing to expand. Manufacturer backlogs remain at nearly 1,500 orders, options and deposits, about 40% of them attributable to fractionals. Continued fractional growth, and the fact that more than 1,000 of the aircraft in backlog are new models - including the Bombardier Challenger 300, Cessna Citation Mustang and Sovereign, Dassault Falcon 7X, Gulfstream G150 and Hawker Horizon - leads Honeywell to forecast a near-term period of sustained higher deliveries. Looking at the 3,450 jets forecast to be purchased over the next five years, Honeywell expects 74% of sales to be in North America, 11% in Western Europe (down from 12% in last year's forecast), 6.3% in Latin America (up from 5%) and 8.5% in Asia. Breaking down its 10- year, 2004-14 forecast into market segments, Honeywell projects deliveries of: • 1,195 long-range and ultra-long- range aircraft, including the Falcon 7X, Global 5000 and Gulfstream G450/G550; • 760 larger jets, including the Challenger 604, Embraer Legacy, Falcon 2000EX and Gulfstream G350; • 2,460 medium and medium- large aircraft, boosted by new mod els like the Challenger 300, Citation Sovereign, Hawker Hor izon and Gulfstream G150; • 2,350 light and light-medium jets, including the Citation CJ3, Learjet 40 and 45XR; • 1,560 very light aircraft, which Honeywell says include the Citation CJ1/2 and Mustang, Premier 1 and SJ30-2; • 125-130 commercial transport aircraft configured as business jets, principally the Airbus Corporate Jet and Boeing Business Jet. Honeywell does not include in the Business Aviation Outlook a forecast for what it calls the ultra light or personal jet sector, which includes the Adam 700, Diamond D-Jet and Eclipse 500. But it sees signs of demand for up to 8,000 of these over the next 10-15 years. DEVELOPMENT Common safety box on track A common computing platform that hosts all the major safety systems in one box is on track for certification in the Dassault Falcon 7X in mid-2005, devel oper Phoenix-based ACSS will announce at NBAA this week, writes Guy Norris. Dubbed the "Protector +", the platform supports multiple func tions to allow for easy growth and upgrade through software loads. Functions will include traf fic and collision avoidance system (TCAS), terrain avoid ance and warning system (TAWS), Mode-S transponder and global positioning system. The 7X, which is the launch application for the system, will initially use it to support ACSS's next-generation TCAS, known as TCAS 3000 to Dassault. Kris Ganase, president of the joint L-3 Communications and Thales company, says that fur ther steps depend on the outcome of a development plan now being crafted in consultation with several aircraft manufactur ers, including at least two other major business aircraft makers. "We're trying to validate the development plan now because everyone is asking us to do dif ferent things with this," he says. INTERIORS KATE SARSFIELD / LONDON Raytheon makes Hawkers more comfortable Raytheon is revamping the interi ors of its in-service Hawker types in an effort to increase passenger comfort and boost brand appeal. The move comes as the US air- framer seals orders an options from the Israeli government for up to 24 Beechcraft Bonanzas. Improvements to the Hawker 400XP light business jet cabin include the installation of XM Radio, Honeywell Ovation C Series cabin entertainment system with amplifiers and satellite radio, and Teledyne Controls AvVisor cabin information, which provides real time in-flight information. The Hawker 800XP will receive extra baggage space and a new cabin management system as part of a complete new interior package, says Raytheon. "We are using the newest technologies in cabin man agement systems, lighting and accessories," it says. A new Collins Airshow 21 Cabin Management System will also be installed at each seat and divan armrest. The government of Israel, mean while has ordered 18 Bonanza pis ton singles for light transport and utility work. The deal is valued at around $11 million and includes an option for six more aircraft. Cabin entertainment will be improved for Hawker 400XP passengers www.flightinternational.com FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL 12-18 OCTOBER 2004 9
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