Boeing will likely announce a re-engined 737 at the Paris air show, predicts Avitas's senior vice president Adam Pilarski, despite strong flirtations with an all-new aircraft aimed for a 2019-2020 entry into service.
Pilarski concludes that the strategic rationale for installing new CFM Leap-X or Pratt & Whitney PW1000G engines under the wings of the 737 outweighs building an all-new aircraft to replace the type.
Pilarski's made his comments at the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT) in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Pilarski says the inability to adequately scale the 787's composite technology will delay implementation of the long-range twin's structural materials on a smaller aircraft as a result of the lack of downward scalability, and warned the three-years of delays to the majority composite jet cannot be repeated.
Speaking directly to Boeing executives in the room Pilarski declares: "You can't afford another disaster like you've had on 787."
Additionally, Pilarski says limited company resources will constrain any decision with a growing need for an upgrade to the 777.
Waiting to offer a significant improvement in narrow body efficiency, says Pilarski, will give the A320neo, Irkut MS-21 and Comac C919 an opportunity to fortify and gain a "beach head" against Boeing.