The maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) market for commercial jets and turboprops is valued at $56.2 billion and expected to grow to $76 billion by 2023, says aviation consultancy Team SAI in a new forecast.
The market is expected to grow at a 3.1% compound annual growth rate in the decade, the forecast shows, which is slightly lower than the forecasted 3.3% growth rate predicted by the firm last year.
The forecast for MRO value in North America will decline over the next five to ten years because of lower maintenance costs overall caused by newer aircraft with longer maintenance intervals, such as the Boeing 737 Max, and airlines re-fleeting with newer aircraft.
"North America MRO is shrinking over the same 10 year period by about $1 billion due almost entirely to the re-fleeting phenomena and the fact that there is essentially zero growth in the North American fleet," says Marcontell.
MRO value continues to grow globally because of increases in material prices, utilisation increases and slightly more man-hours for C and heavy maintenance checks on older Boeing 747-400 and Airbus A320 aircraft, says David Marcontell, president of Team SAI.
Of the total MRO market, $53.9 billion is expected to come from jet aircraft, which is up 10.3% from 2012. This is a sign that the industry has begun to recover from the economic downturn, the consulting firm says.
The world's global fleet will grow by 3.8% on average in the next 10 years, with more than 16,000 deliveries and 6,000 retirements of aircraft now in service throughout that period. There are approximately 22,500 aircraft in the global commercial fleet today, says Team SAI.
Throughout the forecast period, engines make up the largest portion of the total MRO market, valued at $23.1 billion in 2013. It is expected to reach $29.1 billion in 2018 and reach $31.9 billion by 2023.
Heavy maintenance and modifications was valued at $9.3 billion in 2013, growing to $13.1 billion by 2023. Component maintenance will increase from $12 to $15.2 billion by the end of the forecast period, and line maintenance is expected to grow from $9.6 to $12.5 billion by 2023.