FlightGlobal.com
Home
Premium
Archive
Video
Images
Forum
Atlas
Blogs
Jobs
Shop
RSS
Email Newsletters
You are in:
Home
Aviation History
1967
1967 - 0079.PDF
International, 19 January 1967 79 Australia's Re-equipment Problems rE MOST IMMEDIATE EFFECT of the continued low economickey in Australia today is on the re-equipment programmefor the domestic airlines. Whereas the ebullient Mr R. M. Ansett was last year talking in terms of a fleet of more than 20 DC-9s in 1972-73, he is now thinking more of six DC-9s by 1970 and certainly no more than a further four to six in the succeeding two years. TAA is happier about the economy, and did in fact protest against the Government's approval for the delay of the first batch of Australian DC-9s until March. It was the Ansett organisation which was happy at the delay. And for very good reason. It is a melancholy fact, not discussed in the Australian Press, that over the past few months TAA's share of the traffic on the "competitive" (mainline) ser- vices has risen to 54 per cent. The 46 per cent which stays with Ansett-ANA is placing very great pressure on the con- tinuance of the two-airline system. In cold fact, the Federal Government has recently stated it is taking another look at e two-airline policy, though nobody outside politics knows just what is meant by this inexactitude; it could mean anything. It may mean that the Government, having been returned almost without a viable Opposition in the Federal House of Representatives (the Senate is about as vital to us as the House of Lords to Britain) is once again examining the IPEC application for a permit to operate an inter-state cargo service. The Government is more likely to be in some state of worry over the 54:46 status of the two-airline system today. Some balance overall is being given by such decisions as the one to allow Ansett-ANA to operate Adelaide-Darwin and the one which allowed Ansett-ANA a greater share of the Can- berra traffic than was normally secured by direct competition. The present situation in the airlines is that TAA is frankly joyous. This is partly because of the 54:46 situation, though the top brass realises the inherent danger. TAA's urge for DC-9s is greater than Mr Ansett's, thanks to this situation; yet TAA cannot be allowed to start DC-9 operations a day earlier than Mr Ansett, or to buy more. Yet how can pas- sengers on the trunk routes be switched to Ansett-ANA, as they candidly have been by Government intervention on the Canberra route? Meanwhile, TAA is very clear on some future moves. There is a feeling of crisp decision in TAA today which has been lacking in the past. The new chairman, Air Chief Marshal Sir Frederick Scherger is the first chairman to have an aviation background and also the most positive and lively since the £ fuse'°Se °f tne f"H-scale wood and metal mock-up of the 747 wich is t0 be comj>/eted this month before being dismantled later ona taken to Boeing's new factory at Everett, Washington, where the Ws will be built original Sir Arthur Coles. The difference is noticeable. The combination of Sir Frederick and Mr John Ryland, the TAA general manager, makes a pretty potent team. TAA is already clear on several developments. The two Twin Otters TAA bought for Papua-New Guinea are so suc- cessful that an order for ten to a dozen in the coming year is a certainty. These will be used to replace DC-3s and A80s on the Channel Country runs and in Queensland and Tasmania (see Sensor, Flight for December 29). TAA will quickly phase out all DC-3s. The Ansett decision is not to do so at this stage. The Ansett network in the Outback is not the same as that of TAA. The organisation has Skyvans in Papua-New Guinea and likes them—it is understood that reaction to the Caribou up there is now unfavourable. The Caribou is said to be inflexible. Ansett thinking is toward keeping down the number of types. This is helped by the network. Mr Ansett told me long ago that if the Government would spend money improving back-country aerodromes to F-27 standards, he would prefer to use them as DC-3 replacements rather than to buy smaller types. It would be cheaper to lose money operating F-27s on uneconomic runs than to introduce a new type for relatively unproductive runs, some of which are in fact subsidised by the Commonwealth. Lower Growth Rate In the present state of the economy, which sees a drop in airline traffic growth from the 1965 rate of 15 per cent or more (enjoyed for several years) to the present 7 per cent, the question of the "third jet" is not going to have an immediate answer. TAA continue to hanker after the F-28, as they are very Fokker-minded—actually helping Fokker in the F-27 and F-28 designs. Mr Ansett says the F-28 is rather too big for the routes he has in mind; he talks of the long-hoped-for HS.136, for which he says he would place an order at once if it were put into production. More clear in their attitude are the smaller operators—MMA, East-West and Airlines of NSW. MMA will have a 50-60- seat jet on the Perth-Darwin route in 1970. One aircraft will be bought. The F-28 was home with MMA until BAC entered the race a few months ago. The idea of a larger aircraft which could soak up traffic growth does have an appeal (see also Flight for January 5, page 8). A big factor against Fokker is the lack of orders. This is beginning to tell in Australia. Further away, but in mind, is the airbus. There is no real enthusiasm here about a European airbus project and that's the truth; none at all. Ansett-ANA and TAA would be far more impressed by a Boeing or Lockheed airbus, but neither is actually keen. The main problem is how to get frequency. There is only one route which justifies an aircraft of that size here, and that is Melbourne-Sydney. Flights elsewhere would be less frequent and present time-table problems. Moreover, no airbus would be considered which could not carry a full load Adelaide-Perth and even Melbourne-Perth non-stop in mid- summer against winds. This is fundamental. Thinking in Aus- tralia is more for a larger Boeing 727 than for a 250-seat air- craft of any type, even a bigger VC10. The idea of keeping down the number of types well into the 1970s has obvious advantages. In the very long-term view, the domestic operators have vague notions of an eventual (say 1975) supersonic Concorde service across the continent to Perth. This is the only justifiable supersonic route. Whether the airlines would charter time from Qantas, or buy a couple of the first Concordes to be replaced abroad by the American SST, cannot be foreseen yet. But the idea is deep enough for there to be some reality in it. The industrialisation of Perth is going to present the airlines with a lush transcontinental service within the next year or two. STANLEY BROGDEN
Sign up to
Flight Digital Magazine
Flight Print Magazine
Airline Business Magazine
E-newsletters
RSS
Events
