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Aviation History
1986
1986 - 2730.PDF
Commercial aircraft of the world By Andy Hofton FLIGHT DATA The commercial aircraft manufacturers are facing something of a conundrum. Rig testing of unducted fans and propfans, backed up by initial results from the flight- testing of the GE36 unducted fan, are providing very positive results in terms of fuel consumption, noise levels, and vibration. But, on the other hand, aviation fuel prices are comparatively low and all the forecasts suggest that, barring another oil shock, they will remain low for the foreseeable future. This means that it is hard to justify spending large sums of money on developing and certificating all-new designs to take advantage of the next genera tion of powerplants. It cannot be denied, never theless, that the UDF and propfan are very effi cient and can be combined with other emerging technologies to make aircraft which are tech nically very attractive. Even though interest rates are falling, it is not going to be easy for an airline to make an adequate return from an investment in an all- new propfan/UDF-powered airliner if the high costs of launch, development, and certification bring a significant premium on the purchase price. The issue is not clear-cut, and at the moment it appears that developments of existing designs, like the MD-80 and 737-300/400, will continue to be very comparable in economic terms, both with new designs like the A320 and with new concepts like the proposed 7J7 and MD-94. Every manufacturer has something to play for. Of course the balance would change if fuel prices began to climb. But for the moment it seems that prices of more than $1 per US gallon are needed in order to make all-new UDF/ propfan designs attractive—and prices as high as this are just not in prospect in the key market areas of North America, Europe, and the Far East. Therefore, for the reasons outlined above, the market for commercial transports continues to be highly competitive. The prospect that a propfan-powered MD- 91X or a UDF-powered 7J7 could be available in less than six years is making airline fleet planners think hard, but it has not brought sales of mid-sized jets to a shuddering halt. In fact quite the opposite has been true, with over all sales in the year to October 1986 handsomely exceeding those in the previous 12 months. Even in the sector most affected—the 120-180- seat bracket—the last 12 months has brought the firm launch of the 737-400 and proposals from McDonnell Douglas for one more stretch of the MD-80 family in the shape of the MD- 90X. Slightly lower down the scale, customer demand has been sufficiently encouraging to convince British Aerospace to give the stretched 146-300 the go-ahead. The possibility that the 100-120-seat market may blossom in the near future is one of the reasons why Boeing, having abandoned the 737 Lite, is FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL, 11 October 1986
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